THE TRIAL FILES
Geelong Cup Day – 21st October 2015
For the first time this Spring there is rain forecast on a major raceday with the bureau predicting up to 5mm could fall overnight.
The track should perform fairly as the rail comes back to the True positon after being out 9M on the 27th September.
SPARSHOLT (back to 1200M), JACOMAN (Barrier 11) NEONA and MAJESTIC ARTIE are all likely to push forward to create a good tempo.The 1200M start at Geelong is a short run into the first turn and it is vital to assume a good position early.
WE’VE GOT THIS and CONCENTRATE will look to sit just forward of midfield up to 1200M with ZEUSMAN and BOTTLE OF SMOKE to settle back in the second half of the field.
CONCENTRATE trialled at Cranbourne on the 21st September, jumping nicely and settling on the speed. He was the widest runner into the straight and showed a solid turn of foot.
CONCETRATE went to the line with trial winner WE’VE GOT THIS, who was hard ridden wide for a section. There is no doubt that CONCENTRATE looked the better of the two despite the final placings.
WE’VE GOT THIS is becoming a layers dream. This Greg Eurell trained gelding has been a beaten favourite at four of his five most recent outings.
In spite of being slow to begin, he enjoyed an easy run on speed in a moderately tempo pace, before puncturing over the last 200M.
While regularly putting himself in winning positions in the run, he does lack the turn of foot to be a regular winner. The inside draw here is a disadvantage as he will likely need luck over the concluding stages and I can’t price him anywhere near his current $3.50 quote.
Needs to improve:
BOTTLE OF SMOKE has promised the world and was outstanding first up at Mornington last preparation but then failed to measure up at the elite level at two subsequent starts. She was just fair when resuming seven weeks ago, drifted back in the early stages on the back of eventual winner turning for home and failed to let down over the final furlong.
BOTTLE OF SMOKE was a notable runner at the Caulfield trials on the 6th October after rearing and missing the start. After a mid-trial move out wider to finish only fairly. She has come up at $5.50 and I would rate her close to $10. LAY.
The Winning Chances:
CONCENTRATE got a back too far in a leader’s race at Kyneton over 1100m, ideally suited up to 1200M and will relish the likely strong tempo and forgiving width of Geelong.
He was a winner second up over 1200M last preparation before heading to Adelaide for the Group 2 Euclase Stakes, beaten by WE’VE GOT THIS. I really feel this gelding has made the necessary improvement to turn the tables.
ZEUSMAN was brilliant when running slick time first up at Ballarat, racing erratically before finding the line well late to just miss. First time at the distance, and would think he will be up there.
Last start MARWOOD was held up at the top of the straight in his first run since switching stables to Mitchel Freedman before finding the line strongly to finish third.
The Betting Strategy
Think the market has got this one wrong.
LAY – WE’VE GOT THIS – WIN – 2 units up to $4.50
LAY – BOTTLE OF SMOKE – EACH WAY – 2 units up to $8 the WIN and 1 unit up to $3.75 to PLACE.