The Trial Files: Flemington – Sunday 4th October

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THE TRIAL FILES

Flemington – Sunday 4th October

 

Rail +9m, Good 3

The rail has been moved from the True to the 9M position – the track played fairly last meeting and with fresh ground to race on we expect it to race even.

 

RACE 1 – Maribyrnong Trial Stakes – 2yo SW

Taking a close look at the first 2YO race of the Victorian racing season, with all but one seen at the trials we can pin down an accurate market to find a few trading options.

Key Trials:

BROOKWATER trialled at Caulfield on the 22/9 in what was the quicker of the two year old heats (51.69 secs as opposed to 52.51). Jumped cleanly, settling outside the leader. He was shaken up over the last 200M and although getting the better of his rivals, he was the only one given a solid test.

He will be in the firing line early but doesn’t appear to be as forward, or maybe as talented, as some of his rivals today.

CLARO EL BANCO has trialled twice.

At his first trial he settled wide, on speed early but wanted to hang out under pressure in the straight. He proved difficult to ride out, eased up over the concluding stages.

His second trial was certainly an improvement. Much better suited by an inside draw and with the advantage of the rail he kicked up to lead. He was ridden out for the first half of the straight and still had a desire to hang.  Once he worked through his gears he cruised to the line in good time.

Winkers have been applied for this debut run. From barrier six Alan Creighton would be best served hustling forward early and looking for the rail to give this bloke some guidance down the long straight. Like the improvement from trial 1 to trial 2, with further improvement he’s a knockout at big odds.

MANUEL has had solid grounding for his debut with a trial over in Adelaide and a hit out down the straight.

On September 4th Tony McEvoy went to Morphettville with the colt and no doubt would have left with a smile on his face. This big brut settled outside the speed and quickly took over as heads turned for home, coasting to the post in most impressive fashion.

More importantly MANUEL had a hit out down the Flemington straight last week. Over the 800M trip he settled in behind the speed and relaxed like a seasoned pro. He was forced to shift course when making a run 400M from home and then burned off his rivals in the twinkling of an eye – running impressive time in the process.

MANUEL ticks a few boxes here. He has shown tactical speed, he has shown an ability to settle in the run and he has a super turn of foot. The quick back up from last week’s hit out suggests the colt has come through the work in flying colours and the wider draw should see a trouble free passage to the post.

Rates second pick at $3.50 but the current market has him a touch under the odds. Not willing to lay him but backing the value elsewhere.

MOSHAWAY is the only runner we haven’t seen at the trials. Is $23-$31 in early markets!

WIMBORNE comes through the same trial as CLARO EL BANCO on the 21/9 and he was given a very quiet time of it at the tail of the field. He didn’t muster a huge amount of tactical speed and will struggle at 1000M on debut.  Further.

CALLIOPE is a 2YO Filly by Exceed and Excel who trialled at Randwick on the 21/9. She jumped well and showed nice speed to lead. Railed superbly and did everything right. Just urged along and put huge spaces between herself and her six rivals. They crossed the line in big intervals and this filly couldn’t have done much more.

The time, 48.95 seconds, was easily the best of the morning and this John O’Shea filly looks a ready-made galloper. She will put herself in the picture early and with the ability to quicken on a dime, proving mighty hard to run down. She’s the one to beat and has eased in early markets. On the strength of that trial she is the clear standout runner and rates $2.25 favourite so don’t be put off by the drift!

KINETIC DESIGN has had two trials and hasn’t shown enough to be competitive here. If you can lay her at anywhere near the current $3.80 place price then that would be a betting option – we rate her $8 just to place here.

RYLEA LASS has had three trials with positives at each outing.

She took on the older fillies at her first trial and was hopelessly held up the entire straight.

On the 21/8 she contested a three horse trial and was able to lead with ease before kicking away under her own steam and running solid time for the morning.

Most recently (21/9) she showed a very nice turn of foot in the straight and again put strong numbers on the clock after jumping quickly for race day jockey Damien Lane.

Experience and professionalism is everything in early season 2yO racing and from gate four she’s the likely leader. She will be in this race a long way and is getting out to a silly price. We’ve rated her $8 and with $15 available she’s a good overlay.

Brent Stanley was high in his praise of SWEET SHERRY who debuts with Damien Oliver on board. This filly is a half to the smart Sydney sprinter Arinosa and the owners will be hoping lives up to her high price tag!

At her recent Cranbourne trial (21/9) she was quickly into stride before taking a sit three wide on speed. She wanted to hang in the early stages and Damien Oliver had to shake her up before the home turn just to get her mind on the job. She continued to hang around the home bend and was very green up the straight.

The winkers go on for debut effort no doubt in an attempt straighten this girl up, but against a crack field she will want to have improved her manners to be a winning chance. Priced correctly at $10-$12.

TRIS trialled down the straight at Flemington in significantly slower time than MANUEL. She was evenly away and travelled within herself. When asked to quicken about 200M from home it was very pleasing to see her respond and put her rivals away.

The concern for TRIS is probably the inside barrier draw as she will likely be crossed early with multiple runners coming across from wide draws and covering her up. Think she will be better over 1100M and 1200M as time goes on and might find a couple of these a touch sharp over the short course.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – CALLIOPE – 2.5 Units to Win

BACK – PLACE – RYLEA LASS – 1.5 Units to Place.

LAY – PLACE – KINETIC DESIGN – 1 Unit to Place

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