The Trial Files: Emirates Stakes Day

TTF Logo_png2

THE TRIAL FILES

Emirates Stakes Day – 6rd November 2015

The track has been almost impossible. The track slipped into the Heavy range at the end of Oaks Day but one would expect it to be back up to a slow rating come Saturday morning.

The rail position is +6m

 

Race 1 – Maribyrnong Plate 2yo Open SW

A fascinating event for the 2YO’s that sees six debutantes tackle three raced horses – all of whom bring reasonable form to the event.

The Trials:

The Mick Price trained FLYING ARTIE trialled at Caulfield on the 27th October over 800m. He flew the lids and was two lengths clear of his rivals when they hit the ground, held together nicely through the first half of the trial before quickening down strongly overt the final furlong.

The time was very strong and significantly quicker than his stablemate, POWER UP RISE who also goes around here. He has speed and a turn of foot – essential ingredients in early season 2YO racing.

NINE CLOUDS trialled at Cranbourne on the 20th October and we noted: “NINE CLOUDS was slow to begin but recovered with the use of an inside draw. He struggled to keep up in the early stages and came off the bit at the top of the straight. He was eased down late but was no match for the first few over the line”. He looks close to his right price at 80/1.

POWR TRIP also went to Cranbourne on the 20th October, he jumped fairly but was snagged back to the rear. He peeled wide in the straight, and looked professional in the way he worked through the field. He was ridden out but showed a lovely turn of foot.

POWER UP RISE went around at Caulfield on the 27th October and was awkwardly into stride before being urged along to a 2 length lead on his rivals. He increased his margin on the field and appeared to travel well within himself. Strangely for a Mick Price horses he was never really tested over the concluding stages but the time reflected that this was little more than a track gallop.

WAR HERO came third in a Sydney trial before heading to Flemington for a hit out on the 23rd October: “WAR HERO won the trial but was ridden desperately to do so. He was shown the whip for much of the straight and the work was ordinary. He did show a reasonable turn of foot when asked to go but form a betting perspective he will likely turn up under the odds being a Snowden trained trial winner.”

GLORIETTE trialled in very similar time to POWER TRIP at Cranbourne on the 20th October. “GLORIETTE won the trial after settling in behind the speed. She was pushed hard to take a gap at the top of the straight, despite being very green she went to the line nicely. Not as good as the winner of the two male 2YO heats but she has talent.”

The Raced Brigade:

The Darren Weir trained DALRADIAN has been most impressive in his two wins. He has tactical early speed that allows him to position in a handy spot behind the leaders. His win on Cox Plate day was flattered by that hot bias of being closest to the fence.

Runner up to DALRADIAN that day was the David Hayes trained VALLIANO. He did it tougher on that occasion sitting outside the lead facing the breeze. He should have gone close to winning on debut when badly held up and it is easy to make a case that if you swap the runs with DALRADIAN last start then the result would be different. This son of Equiano looks like he will appreciate the straight track and form gate seven Dwayne Dunn will be able to assess his options early and keep his mount out of trouble. He is the best of the raced brigade.

I suggested on Tuesday that MISSROCK was seeking further than 1000M and she certainly raced like that. Although arguably out in the inferior ground down the straight that day she came off the bit early and appeared one paced to the line. If she does happen to back up here she is going to find it tough.

The Major Players:

The best of the debutants appears to be GLORIETTE and POWER TRIP. The former is a precocious 2YO filly who still has plenty to learn but on raw ability can still be very competitive. The latter looks a true professional, an impressive son of Hard Spun who can settle into a rhythm at the tail of the field before unleashing a powerful finishing burst.

VALLIANO might be the thorn in the side of these two unraced juveniles. He has been unlucky in two races around a bend and could be better suited to straight track racing.

In terms of framing a market I’d have both POWER TRIP and GLORIETTE equal favourites at $3.50 from VALLIANO at $5. The current market has POWER TRIP around the $7 and both GLORIETTE and VALLIANO over the odds at $4 and $6.50 respectively.

DALRADIAN currently sits at $5.50 and second favourite but I’ve rated him closer to $8.50 and an outside chance of again beating home VALLIANO.

 

Betting Strategy:

BACK – WIN – POWER TRIP – 3 units WIN

BACK – WIN – GLORIETTE – 2 units WIN

BACK – WIN – VALLIANO- 1 unit WIN

 

Related Articles

The Rating Bureau: Darley Classic

The Rating Bureau: Emirates Stakes

The Betfair Insider: Emirates Stakes Day