The Trial Files: Cox Plate Day – 24th October 2015

Posted: October 23, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

Cox Plate Day – 24st October 2015

 

The Friday night meeting has the rail True and the move out 3m for Cox Plate Day. There is no rain forecast.

 

RACE 10 6:20PM G1X.com.au Stakes (1600 METRES)

 

CORONATION SHALLAN has a wide draw here and up to the mile will be keen to cross and look for the early lead.Speed Map

GIRL GUIDE also gets to the mile and she has shown tactical speed over shorter trips in the past – she will move up from seven and LUCKY LAGO will also push up from gate two.

It is expected to be an even tempo and with this being the 18th race in 24 hours I am very confident that wider on the track will be the sweet spot.

Trial Form

DO YOU REMEMBER trialled at Caulfield on the 6th October and she looked reasonably good on that occasion. She settled midfield in the trial and avoided harms way finishing in a similar spot.

She hasn’t raced since February of 2014 in a South African Group 1 despite trialling in April. From the wide draw she will get a long way back it is very hard to see her winning.

The Horse to Beat…

I’ve long been a huge wrap for AKADELIA and despite the ordinary run on Derby Day last year, she has delivered in spades. She was super off a moderate tempo first up and then didn’t enjoy having horses to her outside when runner up to VOLONTIERS second up at Pakenham.

Her most recent outing was at Cranbourne settling back off a slow tempo before Luke Currie decided to take push forward before the home bend.  She took over as on the turn and burst clear for an arrogant win.

She is a mare on the way up and the mile today suits her down to the ground. The wide draws suit her as I am convinced she doesn’t let down as well with horses outside of her. She is $4 in early markets but I have her marked $2.80 and am very keen to load up.

 

The Unlucky Runner…

You won’t find a horse who has had less luck than ATLANTIS DREAM in recent times. First up she should have gone close to beating POLITENESS when held up in the straight. History repeated last start in the Let’s Elope finding trouble again and unable to gain clear air.

She was scratched from a wide draw last week and Darren Weir has also opted to step her to the mile – which looks a huge positive. She can settle much closer to the speed from the good gate. I have her a $4.40 second favourite and looks over the odds.

Too Short…

BALLET SUITE comes down from Sydney having competed in the Group 3 Angst Stakes at her most recent appearance. The Chris Waller trained filly got back third last in the run before getting a nice three wide cart into the race approaching the home turn. She really failed to let down in the straight and ground to the line like a horse wanting further. ZARZALI peeled off her back at the 400M mark and went past her like she was nailed to the Dulux. She rates double figures and is hugely under the odds at the $5.50 – $6 on offer.

Betting Strategy

Keen on two runners and betting up accordingly.

BACK – AZKADELIA – WIN – 4 units

BACK – ATLANTIS DREAM – WIN – 1.5 units

LAY – BALLET SUITE – WUB – 1 unit

 

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