The Trial Files: Caulfield – Wednesday 14th October

Posted: October 13, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

Caulfield – Wednesday 14th October

 

Rail True, Good 3

The Track

The rail stays in the True position and on Saturday it was evident that the inside section of the track was a no go zone. It’s likely that this is again the case Wednesday.

RACE 1 – Movenpick #RaceDayIceCream Plate 3YO BM 78 HCP

 

Speed Map:

A small field but a very tactical race.

MR INDIVIDUAL has drawn out wide but I’d expect Mark Zahra to look to lead in a race lacking evident early speed.

HE’S OUR ROKKII raced handy in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley last start and can sit outside the leader or position in behind the speed –either way he’ll enjoy a soft run in transit. MORE THAN PERFECT and WAR LEGEND are next in running in what should be a moderately run 1600m.

The Standout:

MR INDIVIDUAL was first emergency for Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas. He’s a colt with unbridled talent who is only just learning how to be a racehorse and inexperience has been his downfall so far this preparation.

First up off a slow tempo in the 1100m McNeil Stakes he settled towards the tail of the field before pulling ferociously and making a mid-race move out wide on the track. In the straight he wanted to lay out badly yet still had the audacity to be coming again on the line.

Second up did plenty wrong in the run but was good enough to overcome a tough run to outstay FAATINAH to the line – those two putting a good margin on the rest of the field.

Most recently in the Guineas Prelude he positioned behind the leader, inclined to race with his mouth wide open, refusing to settle. In the straight he again wanted to lay out over the concluding stages but was more than adequate to the line for a race like this.

The deeper his preparation goes, the bigger the impression he gives us that he’s looking for further, the mile today looks ideal.

We’re confident he will dictate from the front and run the race on his own terms.

The Danger:

Ex-Kiwi HE’S OUR ROOKKII now with David Hayes on a Derby path.

He resumed at Benalla with a soft win by 2.5 lengths in a 1206m Maiden in empathic style. There were excuses 2nd up in the Stutt Stakes when wide in transit. I’m confident he’s better suited to 2000m but maps perfectly which explains his short quote in the market.  He looks to lack the turn of foot to defeat MR INDIVIDUAL at 1600m.

 

Betting Strategy:

BACK – WIN – MR INDIVIDUAL – We’ve rated him $1.80, suggesting 3 units WIN.

 

RACE 8 – Italktravel Stakes Listed Open Handicap 1200m

Speed Map:

For a 1200m race with a big field there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of speed engaged with on speed runners to be advantaged.

MOMENT OF CHANGE from barrier 9 will be push forward. As will the bolter VILLOPOTO. Queensland visitor ROCK ROYALTY is another who can press forward and challenge for the lead.

 

Eye-Catching Jump Out:

ROCK ROYALTY took part in a jump out Caulfield since his failure at this track on the 26th September and the work was strong suggesting he needed the first up run. He settled near the speed out wide on the track and cruised to the line under a nice hold.

From barrier four, the best plan for Damien Lane would be to take a sit behind the leaders. Rock Royalty proved his class two starts ago, winning the Ramornie Handicap in track record time over the 1200m. He’s well over the odds at $21 in early markets.

The 1st up Specialist:

MOMENT OF CHANGE has been working stylishly in preparation for this resumption to racing. Sure, he has to lump 61.5kg but when you consider he is a Group 1 winner, take into account his lumping frame having shown the ability to carry weight in the past.

His first up record (more often in stronger company) reads 8 starts 2 wins 4 seconds & 2 thirds. His Caulfield record reads 6 starts 4 wins 1 seconds & 0 thirds.  He’ll enjoy a nice run on speed and is well over the odds in early markets at $16-$18.

The only negative, just one run since November, but he appears to have overcome any issues that have kept him away from the track.

 

Betting Strategy:

BACK – E/W – ROCK ROYALTY – 0.5 units WIN and 1 unit PLACE

BACK – E/ W – MOMENT OF CHANGE – 0.5 units WIN and 1 unit PLACE

 

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