The Trial Files: Caulfield – Saturday 26th September

Posted: September 26, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

Caulfield – Saturday 26th September

 

Rail True, Good 3

The track has been playing relatively fairly of late with jockeys continuing to angle away from the rail around the home bend. The rail movement back to the True (from the 9M position) leaves a huge patch of fresh ground up on the inside and this should see leaders proving hard to run down.

RACE 2 – Inglis Cup 4yo Open SWP 2000m

Speed Map:

GLORYLAND and the NSW trained BRACES are the two likely leaders and they should find their spots pretty quickly and control a moderate tempo.

KANSAS SUNFLOWER steps to the 2000m for the first time this campaign and she is perfectly drawn to sit just off the leading duo, enjoying the run of the race.

The key runner is MURAQBA. He’s drawn poorly for the first time in his career and although he was able to lead on debut at Hawkesbury he has since been ridden progressively quieter as they step him up in distance. From the 2000m start at Caulfield they jump straight onto a small bend and from the wide draw we expect Shinn to concede early and drift back towards the tail of the field.

The Favourite:

MURAQABA has impressed at all three wins to date. The stable have been patient with this 4YO, unraced until a month ago. He gives every impression he will want the 2000m trip of today and potentially more effective up to 2400M.

In spite of his potential the speed map really doesn’t paint a pretty picture for MURAQABA. It is hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t end up out the back and given the leaders should be carving out very moderate sectionals he is going to have to make a long sustained run to make it four wins on end.

The Winner:

We rate KANSAS SUNFLOWER a 6/4 ($2.50) favourite here. Ridden negatively last start at Pakenham due to the wide draw and the way the track has been playing. This time Ben Melham will be positive up to 2000M from a good gate and this filly is going to get a lovely run on her home track.

Two starts back at this track she was forced to sit outside the fired up DANESTROEM who quickly dropped off at the top of the straight leaving this mare in front too far from the post. She was run down late by SET SQUARE (Caulfield Cup) and ABIDEWITHME who were second last and last in the run.

Luke Oliver has always thought this mare would stretch to the 10 furlongs as evidenced by the SA Oaks campaign and three runs this time in have convinced us of the same.

The Danger:

LOVED UP is the other overlay in our market – rated a $4.80 chance. She drops significantly in class from the Let’s Elope and Cockram Stakes at two runs this preparation.

In the G2 Lets Elope Stakes over 1400M at Flemington she was buried away on the rail coming into the straight when tiring horses started to fall back into her lap. Luke Currie was forced to switch courses on two or three occasions before finally getting clear, and allow her to finish off strongly.

She maps well and despite the significant rise from 1400M to 2000M, both runs this time in suggest she is looking for the trip.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – KANSAS SUNFLOWER – May drift early but firm late. 2.5 units the WIN.

BACK – WIN – LOVED UP – likely to start >$6. Have 1 unit on her to save.

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