The Trial Files: Caulfield – Saturday 19th September

Posted: September 18, 2015 at 10:58 am

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The Trial Files

Caulfield – Saturday 19th September

 

Rail +9m, Good 3

Rail moves from +3m to +9m position. The track played well at that August 29 meeting but it is rarely a disadvantage to be on speed. It should even out throughout the day.

 

Race 2 – Handicap 1400m

Speed Map:

LORD DURANTE is the clear cut leader in spite of dropping from 2000M back to 1400M. MOONOVERMANHATTAN has drawn perfectly and up to 1400M can will be far more prominent second up.

PAGO ROCK will position just behind the speed and the race favourite, GOOD VALUE next in line.

It will be interesting to see how they ride KILLARNEY KID but I expect them to go back from the wide draw.

RUGGED CROSS resumes for the Weir stable and from the wide draw will drift back to the second half of the field as will RYHTHM TO SPARE and SCREAM MACHINE.

The Trials:

KILLARNEY KID has followed the typical Moody lead up with a very soft trial and then a more testing hit out. At his most recent trial KILLARNEY KID (1/9 @ Caulfield) settled midfield before coming off the bit mid trial and chasing gallantly to the line.

This 6YO gelding came to the Moody stable in late autumn and made an immediate impression winning at Flemington over 2000M. He’s looking for further, I can’t entertain him as a winning chance.

SCHOCKEMOLE (11/9 @ Cranbourne) trialled over the extended 1190M and didn’t show enough to be competitive here. He was one paced chasing GODSPEIL who was cruising and although his adversary in that trial came out and won on Wednesday the form isn’t strong enough to measure up here.

The Most Advantaged Runners:

LORD DURANTE will be rated well in front, dropping from 2000M to 1400M is not normally a recipe for success but this 7YO has been close up at three recent 1400m events in much stronger company than he meets today.

Going back three runs he was narrowly defeated by BAGMAN – a subsequent Group 2 runner up.

MOONOVERMANHATTAN was slow to begin first up and from that point Newitt seemed very happy to settle the 4YO rearward. Up to 1400M today and drawn barrier he should be up and on the speed.

He stretched out to a Derby in the Spring of his 3YO season, but I’m confident he’s most dangerous in middle races, 1400M second up is ideal .

The Favourite:

GOOD VALUE is off an eight week freshen and around $4 favourite with the Exchange. He came off a 40 week spell back in May and immediately made an impression with very strong performances at1200m and 1400m at Flemington.

Deeper into his preparation he became dour in his races, most recently at 1800m at Caulfield, he was off the bit a long way from home and is clearly a fresh horse.

In order to win here he needs to be ridden cold off a hot tempo and saved for one last crack at them. Given tempo I think he’s a false favourite.

Betting Activity:

BACK – E/W – LORD DURANTE – rates a $7 chance and has been $26 into $11. Have 0.5 units WIN and 1 unit PLACE

BACK – E/W – MOONOVERMANHATTAN – clear danger and rates as race favourite on our boards at $3.90. Have 0.5 units WIN and then 2 units the PLACE.

 

RACE 8 – Open Handicap G3 2000m

** There’s a large number of runners who simply have no hope of winning this race, they are on the path to longer staying events deeper into the spring creating value in the market.

Speed Map:

Assuming LORD DURANTE won’t get a run and will line up in the very suitable 1400M race earlier in the day.

KAPOUR is drawn wide but has the speed to roll forward and lead. From the 2000m start there’s a nice long run into the first main bend so expect Oliver to take his time working across.

MAGNAPAL, CAFÉ SOCIETY and TAIYOO can all press forward and settle handy to the speed.

THE UNITED STATES gets to 2000m for the first time and has the tactical speed to press on from gate twelve and settle behind this leading quartet – one off the rail.

The Trial:

OUR IVANHOWE trialled recently at Cranbourne last week over 1550m. He settled in behind the speed and took over coming around the home turn and was ridden out to win in good style. The wide draw is against him and he will improve off the run.

ETHIOPIA and GENUINE LAD both featured in the above-mentioned trial and were mercilessly beaten by OUR IVANHOWE. They are price accordingly in the market.

Major Players:

THE UNITED STATES loomed to win last time at MV but the toll of a wide run in the early stages was brought him undone. He lost no admirers for the effort, and looks ready to take the step up to 2000M sure to start a clear SP favourite on the Exchange.

Lloyd Williams has an eye to the Caulfield Cup with this gelding needs to keep winning to lift his rating.

MAGNAPAL is low-flying.  Terrific first up at Sandown and then raised the bar to a career peak second up when a dominant victor over a subsequent Flemington winner in IGGIMACOOL.

Luke Currie will be able to put MAGNAPAL in a lovely spot from an advantageous barrier draw. This is a step up in grade but he’s still got improvement in him.

Betting Activity:

Narrowed this huge field down to two chances and betting them accordingly.

BACK – WIN – THE UNITED STATES – rates a $2.90 favourite and with $4+ on offer currently and the likelihood of better on the Exchange have 3 units WIN.

BACK – WIN – MAGNAPAL – our ratings have him clear 2nd pick at $4.20 he’s $6 + in early markets. He may balloon to $8, have a 1.5 unit WIN.

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