The Trial Files: Caulfield – Saturday 17th October

Posted: October 16, 2015 at 11:51 am

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THE TRIAL FILES

Caulfield – Saturday 17th October 2015

 

Rail +6m, Good 3

The track should play fairly with the outside being some advantage as the day wears on.

 

RACE 1 – Yellowglen Plate 3yo SWP 1400m

Speed Map:

The Hayes pair of AIR APPARENT and HELL OR HIGHWATER both possess good tactical speed and they vie for the early lead.

PURRPUSSFUL is going from 1200M to 1400M here and has enough early pace to be handy through the first 200M. PEARL STAR & YOUNG AMAZON also prominent.

SILENT SEDITION looks to blend into the race just forward of midfield and she should get run of the race.

STRANGEST DREAM draws out likely to settle near to last.

The 1400M start basically runs straight into a bend and with good speed engaged it will be on in earnest for the first two furlongs.

The Horse To Beat:

I was very bullish about SILENT SEDITION when third on debut at Seymour. She trialled very well at Caulfield leading into that run but negative tactics out of the barriers handed the race to Miss Gidget and the 2.35L margin was unfair.

Back on her home track last start, was dragged back to last out three wide. She was off the bit rounding the home turn but quickly let down and came with a withering burst late. She should have won the race, her final splits 600 33.97 400 22.07 extremely good for the day. The rise to 1400 a big plus.

The bookies have this a very open race with SILENT SEDITION sharing favouritism at around $4. We’ve rated her conservatively to a maximum price of $3.00.

The Danger:

HELL OR HIGHWATER is the clear danger to SILENT SEDITION. She was beaten 5 lengths at her second career start in the Blue Diamond Prelude in the Autumn, and resumed with a commanding win at Cranbourne over 1200m first up this preparation.

At her most recent outing in the G3 Champagne Stakes at The Valley she jumped into a good position 4th on the fence and remained there throughout. The run was OK and there is absolutely no reason she won’t get the 1400M. She rates a $5.50 second pick.

The NSW visitor:

ITALY comes here with strong SPEAK FONDLY form – albeit beaten over 5L in the G2 Silver Shadow.

She had every conceivable favour in the Reginald Allen over 1400M at Rosehill last start, she was a shot duck turning for home. Her best performances are over 1200M and from gate eight she isn’t going to get that same soft run in transit today.

ITALY has come up equal favourite in early markets and she is a $7 fourth pick in our prices.  

The Knockout:

The Henry Dwyer trained STRANGEST DREAM represents an overlay. She went to Mornington on debut and was restrained to last form a wide draw but she really attacked the line strongly.

By Pins out of the classy mare Pernod she is going to be suited as she steps up in trip and the likely strong tempo is in her favour today. She will get back to near last, but expect her to storm home strongly. $26 looks good value in early markets.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – SILENT SEDITION – Very confident 3 units WIN

BACK – WIN – STRANGEST DREAM – is the other overlay 0.5 units WIN

LAY – E/W – ITALY – looks under the odds win & place. Lay her e/w for 1.5 units. (Lay her the place up to $3.00).

 

 

RACE 8 – Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 4YO+ Mares SWP G2 1400m

Speed Map:

Another 1400M race so the run to that first turn is very short.

The speed should be genuine with HAZARD, SOLICIT and GREGERS the most likely leaders. CATKINS and TYCOON TARA can settle just off the speed.

There should be a strong enough tempo to enable all horses to get their chance.

A Hot Trial:

SOLICIT has been trialling the house down in Sydney ahead of her resumption.

At Rosehill on the 29th September she led them up and pinched a decent break coming around the home bend. At the 200M mark she took a little riding to hold the lead but was strong to the line.

She went to Warwick Farm on the 9th October and couldn’t have been more impressive leading all the way in the 1200M barrier trial. The time wasn’t anything to crow about but this Gerald Ryan mare looks in super order and has really come on form a solid winter preparation.

Formerly trained by Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra, SOLICIT was a dominant 3YO filly before going off the boil in the middle stages of her 4YO career. She is top shelf on her day and looks primed first up here.

The Unlucky Runner:

You won’t find a horse who has had less luck than ATLANTIS DREAM in recent times. First up she should have gone close to beating POLITENESS when hopelessly held up in the straight and history repeated itself in the Let’s Elope last start when again she was unable to gain clear air.

Darren Weir has her absolutely flying. The wide draw suits as she will drop out and will come track as the widest runner around the bend – ensuring a trouble free run to the line. She has come up $26 in early markets and we have her rated shorter.

The Class Runner:

CATKINS is the class of the field, evidenced by her sixteen wins and near on $2 million in prizemoney.

She was sent around a short priced favourite in the Golden Pendant at Rosehill last start and I thought she was pretty plain in the run to the line.

She has had ten tries at the distance and although placing on seven of those occasions she has only registered one win at 1400M. This is a strong field of mares and on the back of her most recent run I couldn’t have her anywhere near as short as the current $3 quote.

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – CATKINS – 2 units up to $4.50.

BACK – E/W – SOLICIT – 0.5 units each way.

BACK – E/W – ATLANTIS DREAM – 0.5 units each way.

 

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