The Trial Files: Caulfield – Saturday 10th October

Posted: October 9, 2015 at 3:02 pm

THE TRIAL FILES

Caulfield – Saturday 10th October

 

Rail True, Good 3

 

Caulfield Guineas Tip: For the record I am a huge fan of BASSETT and with a little luck he would have finished much closer to PRESS STATEMENT in the JJ Atkins. His recent return at Caulfield was exceptional and from a middle gate he is going to get more favours in the run than the favourite. At around $13 he is a super E/W bet.

 

RACE 1

Position in running is crucial when assessing 2yo’s, everyone horse has trialled in public with the exception of TERRINDAH for Robbie Griffiths.

Speed Map:

Hard to see how FLYING JESS and THAR don’t settle 1-2 in the run, they’ve shown superior tactical speed in their trials.

PREEMPTIVE has a degree of tactical speed but he is unlikely to get across from gate eleven, most likely trapped three wide.

PEARL CONGENIAL and THOMASINA will sit just behind the speed and enjoy good runs in transit.

 

Trial Notes:

FLYING JESS is on the quick backup from a trial on Monday and that is the first huge positive. This filly begun like a shot out of a cannon and given one slap one the shoulder 200M from home and bounded away. The time was scintillating.

This filly trialled at home (Caulfield) the week prior and was equally as impressive.

The fact she is backing up for her third outing in just 13 days tells me the horse is continuing to work well off the track and is handling the racing with aplomb.

If FLYING JESS were in the stables of Moody, Waterhouse or O’Shea you’d probably be looking at $2.25 – and that isn’t taking anything away from John Moloney. We can’t have her priced any longer than that $2.25 – she is a huge overlay and we’ll be betting with confidence.

MAGICAL MILLY trialled at Cranbourne on the 20th September in a fast heat. She settled very nicely in the run and hit the line strongly under a massive hold. The work was fantastic.

Barrier one is the potential stumbling block for this filly and she certainly won’t be able to hold her spot early. That said, there is no reason she can’t be just in behind the speed and just needing a touch of luck to find a split and charge to the line. She is the clear second pick at $5 and represents good value.

PEARL CONGENIAL certainly improved when stepping out for her second trial on the 5th October. Once into her rhythm was able to control things from the front. Once in the home straight she coasted to the line for Craig Williams.

Her time was significantly slower than FLYING JESS and whilst it is hard to see her improving enough to turn the tables, she did have a fair bit in hand. She’s clear 3rd pick but we’ve rated her $6 which is a slight overlay on The Exchange at $7.

Next Best:

THAR – (Randwick trial 20th September) showed an abundance of tactical speed and was able to clear out to a 3L lead early in the heat. He was challenged 250M from home and placed under some pressure at that point but responded like a good horse. The time was slow for the morning. We’ve rated $9. Early market $4.80

VALLIANO – trialled against his stablemate HIGHLAND BEAT. He was totally outpaced early and at one point it looked like he might drop right out. Once he picked up the bit and realised he was a racehorse he actually closed off nicely to the line. He is clearly a horse who will be better over further than 1000M and he will need a lot of luck getting back from barrier two – at $21 he’s not the worst.

LITERATE – trialled against her stablemate and subsequent Flemington winner, SWEET CHERRY. This Brent Stanley trained filly settled outside the leader but took a bit of riding around the home turn to keep up. Once into her rhythm she worked to the line nicely. I do think it was a case of SWEET CHERRY really improving out of this trial more so than this being a strong heat. At $30-40 she will have some support.

THOMASINA – sat outside PEARL CONGENIAL in the abovementioned Cranbourne trial and was able to stick with the filly for the entire straight. She was urged strongly over the concluding stages, a length or two inferior to the Smerdon galloper. Will have some support above $21 from a good draw.

The Lay:

HIGHLAND BEAT – trialled at Flemington on the 1st October. Pinged the gates early and set up a 2L lead as they settled down. He is a speedy horse, who kicked away under hard riding in the straight. The time was only fair and punters are probably going to get caught up in the big margin of the trial win.

The week prior HIGHLAND BEAT trialled down the straight and he hung terribly from the midpoint of the trial after being hard ridden to keep up early.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK – WIN – FLYING JESS – 1000m looks perfect on debut. 3 units WIN.

BACK – WIN – MAGICAL MILLY – we rate closer to $5, than the $8 in early markets 1 unit WIN.

 

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