The Trial Files: Ballarat – Wednesday 7th October

Posted: October 7, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

 

Ballarat – Wednesday 7th October

Rail +12m, Good 4

 

RACE 6 – 3YO BM64 1000m

1000M races commence from the chute at Ballarat and there is just the one relatively minor turn to navigate. With the rail out from +9m to +12m leaders should be advantaged yet again.

Speed Map:

BEN BADER has brilliant tactical speed and will offset the wide barrier without any issue. MY LESSON has drawn barrier one and will kick up to share the early lead.

BELLA MOLLIE is a noted leader over six furlongs, but outpaced in her 1000m runs to date – she can settle just off the speed from gate six. REMOUNT is the other speed in the race will tuck in behind the leaders but off the fence.

We are not expecting breakneck speed.

Ben Bader’s Trial 11th September:

He jumped very quickly, leading with ease. He came towards the centre of the course coming around the home bend and with mild encouragement he lengthened like a horse back in good order.

Judging by that recent trial he has improved with the spell and the fact Noble has chosen to keep him fresh for this 100m resumption is a huge positive. He will be tough up on speed, making the $13-18 on offer huge value.

Ben Bader last preparation:

He trialled brilliantly at Echuca in March running scintillating time when leading all the way.

He resumed a fortnight later at Swan Hill and was forced to do it tough outside the leader. Despite being left alone in front a long way from home he won in good fashion.

He ran comparable time to the BM70 on the same day and that performance alone is good enough to see him be competitive in today’s race.

He was disappointing at two subsequent starts but there were excuses on each occasion.

The Horse to Beat:

The favourite is ZEUSMAN. A lightly raced 4YO resumed at this track and distance on the 20th September and stalked the speed before producing a lethal turn of foot over the concluding 200m. He won with ease and the time was very good. Given the time, the form didn’t require franking, but that said the third horse (HA LONG BAY) won a good maiden at Ballarat last week.

Trained by Niall Phillips at Geelong he has an abundance of talent and if kept together he could well graduate to Saturday City class in the near future.

ZEUSMAN will eventually be better suited to further than six furlongs or beyond. Today he will settle midfield and provided the track allows horses to make ground down the centre, he will make his presence felt.

 

Next Best:

BELLA MOLLIE is down in grade from late in her last campaign and is one of only two mares in the race. She is definitely much better suited over 1200-1400m and as mentioned, has struggled with the tempo of five furlong races in the past. The early market support ($8-$6) isn’t warranted in my opinion and she is a double figure chance first up today.

BOLD EAVEY is ever-consistent but doesn’t know how to win. She has greeted the judge first just once in her 21 start career and today she faces a task getting clear air from barrier two. She will settle midfield on the rail and need a great deal of luck to go her way in the straight. A player for the multiples but it is very hard to see her winning.

MY LESSON was able to win two starts back over the 975m at Swan Hill in good time for the day. If the track plays as expected he will be in the finish.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – ZEUSMAN – is a clear top pick and rates $2.25, at close to $3 on the exchange we suggest 2.5 units WIN

BACK – E/W – BEN BADER – we’ve rated him $7 and suggest 0.5 units WIN and 1.5 units PLACE.

 

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