The Rating Bureau: VRC Sires Produce Stakes

Posted: March 10, 2016 at 5:48 pm

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Race Assessment

R2: VRC Sires Produce Stakes – 1400m 2YO Open SW Gp2 $200,000

 

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 (Thursday) with the possibility of showers Thursday night, Friday and Saturday morning. Even with a shower or two, the track should remain in the Good 4 range, Soft 5 at worst. A shower on the day could see the inside become a disadvantage, but that aside it should play relatively even.

Speed and Tactics 

There is a notable lack of pace in this year’s race. Battle Order (3) with Blinkers first time has the speed to lead and control the race should Craig Newitt wish. Revolving Door (5) and Hot Dipped (4) are also likely contenders for on pace positions.  Blake Shinn on Detective (8) faces a key tactical choice early about whether to press forward or ride conservatively.  Something in between where he hopes to “slot in” looks to carry higher than average risk of being caught wide.

The lack of natural pace combined with the idea that riders will be looking to ensure their mounts have every chance to run a strong 1400m, makes it hard to imagine anything but a moderate early pace and faster rating sections home.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate

Late Pace Rating: Above Average

Best Suited: Front half in running. Those in the 2nd half of the field will need to build momentum early, rather than waiting to react to the increase in tempo from the leaders.

Race Overview

Below are the ratings that recent Sires Produce winners have run to:

  • 2015 – Jameka – 95.5
  • 2014 – Zululand – 94.0
  • 2013 – Twilight Royale – 94.5
  • 2012 – All Too Hard – 102.5
  • 2011 – Running Tall – 96.3
  • 2010 – Shamrocker – 95.5

 

Putting aside All Too Hard who was a rare talent to enter this race, the average winner rating since 2010 has been 95.1. For this year’s race we anticipate the winner will run somewhere between a 93 and 95 rating. That’s based on lead up form, the historical rating of this race and the likelihood of one or more runners improving on their recent ratings, better suited up to 1400m. It seems very unlikely that at least one runner in this race will not reach a 93 rating.

The exposed ability of each horse along with potential to reach that minimum 93 rating becomes our key benchmark on which to assess chances.

Runner by Runner Analysis 

Ran home okay for 4th (but beaten 6.9L) when suited by a fast pace in the Blue Diamond. He returned a 90.5 rating from that run and might have a little natural improvement up to 1400m, but it looks a bigger stretch than some for him to reach that minimum 93 mark.

Looks a terrific value chance in this race. He rated 88.2 last start racing up the straight over 1100m behind Weatherly, but was over on the inside section of the straight which turned out significantly inferior ground on the day. He was a comfortable winner of that inside division and really looked like a horse crying out for 1400m.

How much of a disadvantage was that inside section? There were three straight races on the day which had horses race on both the mid-inside and outside sections of the straight. When looking at ratings of those horses that raced mid to inside against what they were expected to run on the day, it’s clear that those horses ran somewhere between 5 points  / 2.2 lengths (conservative) and 7 points / 3 lengths inferior… plenty ran worse than that. There was no horse on the inside section that ran anywhere near their true level of ability.

If we take Jackson’s 88.2 rating earned last start and then apply the minimum notion that he was disadvantaged 5 rating points being on the inside section, then that puts the real merit of his run at 93.2, right at the minimum winning standard of this race. This still doesn’t take into account that he looks much better suited up to 1400m, which could see him rate closer to a 95 in this race.

The big challenge will be D.Oliver ensuring that he uses Barrier 2 and doesn’t end up giving away too much start in a race that lacks pace. If he can do that then we expect him to be right in the finish. The $10 on offer in the market is an excellent gamble.

He comes into this race with some very solid recent Sydney ratings around the 92 level and is another that looks to be crying out for more distance, so the step from 1200m to 1400m looks ideal. He looks more than capable here of pushing to the 93.5 – 95 rating level. His big challenge is the barrier draw and what tactics are adopted early (see Speed & Tactics above.) With a good ride from Blake Shinn he looks capable of being right in the finish of this race.

Ran an 89.3 rating winning at Sandown last start over 1300m and he certainly looks suited up to 1400m. He was however ideally suited in that 1300m race up on a very slow pace and Seaburge (far less suited) ran home considerably better.

In his favour here is that he might get a similar trip / pace and he is on an upward spiral, which could see him elevate to the winning level. However there are others that come into this race with stronger lead up credentials and potential is very much speculative, so for that reason we can’t find him anywhere near the current market price.

Was very good at Sandown last start, getting well back off a very slow pace and having virtually no chance. He sprinted home powerfully in strong sustained sectionals (much better than Revolving Door) and that clearly showed the lack of pace prevented him from producing his best. He’ll be well suited up to 1400m and like Revolving Door has the potential to elevate to the winning level. However it’s hard to find him as short as the market has him.

Has a peak of 81.3 and was beaten 5.3L behind Revolving Door last start. He might improve with Blinkers first time and up to 1400m, but has a massive amount of ground to make up. He’s impossible to like.

Comes off an 86.1 rating last start and has Blinkers first time here. He could get an easy run up near the lead and that could see him elevate his rating, but the gap to get into the winning zone looks far too great.

He’s a star from Tasmania with 3 wins from 3 starts and ratings quality that looks right up to this race. His peak of 96.3 came two starts ago over 1220m on a dry track where he showed sustained speed and closing speed to suggest that 1400m is no problem. He might be less likely than some of the others to run to a new peak and he does have to travel from Tasmania to produce his best… but he has an edge on recent ratings and only needs to run somewhere near that level to be in the finish.

He has a peak of 84.4 this preparation and while he has gone to 90 last preparation, that was over 1100m so it’s hard to predict him being competitive here.

Betting Strategy

There’s two clear value prospects in this race. Decide on your chosen outlay in the race and stake in the following ratio:

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Detective – 55% of race outlay

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jackson – 45% of race outlay

 

 

 

TRB