The Rating Bureau: Rosehill Guineas

Posted: March 18, 2016 at 3:44 pm

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Race Assessment

R6: Rosehill Guineas – 2000m 3YO Open SW G1 $600,000

 

The Track

The track is currently a Soft 5 (Thursday) and there’s an 80% chance of showers (1-5mm) on Friday afternoon.  If the track can escape with just one small shower between now and race time, it should race in the Good 4 – Soft 5 range at worst.

With the rail in the 2m position and some moisture in the ground, the fence is likely to be some disadvantage. 4-5 horses off the fence will be suitable ground, which will be okay for those closer to the lead, providing they can get off the fence rounding the turn.

Speed and Tactics 

There isn’t a huge amount of early speed in this year’s race. Stepping up to 2000m from a good draw, Shards (6) has the right scenario to take up the running. Back to Sydney and up to 2000m, River Wild (7) may now also display the early speed needed to be up there. Le Romain (8) is drawn immediately outside of those two and that’s a perfect scenario for him to trail across and end up with a nice settling position behind the lead.

Damien Oliver on Jameka (14) faces a key tactical choice early and could be another to press forward. With the obvious lack of speed in this race we may see some unexpected runners go forward, but overall it’s hard to imagine anything but a below average to average tempo at best.

Early Pace Rating: Below Average to Average

Late Pace Rating: Average to Below Average

Best Suited: Front half of the field.

Race Overview

Below are the ratings that recent Sires Produce winners have run to:

  • 2015 – Volkstoknbarrell – 103.1
  • 2014 – Criterion – 104.5
  • 2013 – It’s a Dundeel – 107
  • 2012 – Laser Hawk – 103
  • 2011 – Jimmy Chouz – 105.5
  • 2010 – Zabrasive – 102.7
  • 2009 – Metal Bender – 104.5
  • 2008 – Dealer Principle – 101

 

The average winner rating since 2008 has been 103.9, highlighted by It’s A Dundeel’s top class 107 figure.

This year’s race looks to sit comfortably below the historical standard. Tarzino holds the highest career peak in the race with a 103.5 from his VRC Derby win in the Spring, followed by Jameka with a 101.1 from her VRC Oaks win. The next highest peak ratings sit at 100 or lower.

The winning mark for this year’s race is likely to fall in the 100 to 103 range, making it one of the lowest rating editions in recent years. A rating of 100 is the minimum that will be needed to be considered a winning challenger.

Runner by Runner Analysis 

He’s the best runner in the field and his last start 101.5 rating in the Australian Guineas is the best recent rating leading into this race. Combine that with his scope to improve up to 2000m towards his 103.5 peak (or beyond) and he’s clearly the top winning chance in the race.

There are however two factors that present a case to detract from him as a value betting prospect in this race. Firstly, he comes out of a fast run Australian Guineas and although up to 2000m, the pace is likely to be much more moderate here. Perhaps more importantly, he is drawn barrier 2 and lacks early speed, which is likely to see him locked away midfield on the fence.

By this stage of the day that position is likely to be a disadvantage, especially when you consider that as the dominant favourite, other riders will be looking for him and giving no favours at all. He may very well still be too good for these and win easily, but we can’t see any value at all in his current price.

He’s improved with every run this campaign, culminating in his Randwick Guineas triumph two weeks ago. That was a very fast run Randwick mile with excellent overall time and he was very solid to the line. They’re good credentials to step up to a more leisurely run 2000m at Rosehill. Combine that with the prospect of a good run handy to the lead and he has a nice scenario to run up to that last start 100 rating, or even better it. He’s a key winning chance in this race and appeals as a nice value bet.

Comes off a 96 rating last start in the Australian Guineas and has a peak of 98 from last preparation, which he should make progress towards stepping up to 2000m. That’s likely short of the winning mark here, but there’s also some chance he can reach a new peak, especially coming from the Waller stable. He has to be respected, but it’s hard to see value in the current price.

Never threatened when beaten 5.9 lengths in the Randwick Guineas and while he’s suited up to 2000m, it’s hard to imagine him suddenly improving the 6+ lengths that will be needed to win this.

His last two runs have been moderate, but he is well established in the 95 to 97 rating range and if he takes up an on pace position, he’ll get every chance to return to that level. It’s still not good enough to win the race, but he’s one capable of improving sharply.

He was beaten only 1.5L in the Australian Guineas (97.5 rating) and did strike trouble a couple of times in the run. The slight concern is that he looked to peak on his run late so there’s a slight query about him being able to run to a new peak up to 2000m here. He can certainly be thereabouts, but there’s nothing appealing in his price.

He looks a genuine contender in this race at a terrific value price. He was beaten only 1.6L (4th) in the Australian Guineas and only 1.5L behind Tarzino, leaving him with a 98.8 rating. He gives the impression that 2000m is suitable we like him returning home to Sydney with a very good chance to take up a forward position in this race on a below average to average speed. That’s a great scenario for him to run to a new peak in this race and he does not need to improve much on that last start performance to put him right in the winning mix. He appeals as the big value runner in the race.

He was crowed at a vital time in the Australian Guineas so the run is perhaps a little better than the 95.8 figure indicates. He needs a clear new career peak to get into the mix here though and while he could do that, getting well off the pace from an inside draw doesn’t appeal as the ideal scenario. He’s not hopeless, but there’s no value in his current market price.

His career peak is a 94.5 rating and he’s only been to 88 so far this preparation. He looks outclassed.

He’s improved in each of his three runs this preparation and looks well set up to do so again here up to 2000m. However with a peak of only 91.5, the leap needed to get in the winning mix here looks far too great.

His last start 90 rating is nowhere near good enough for this.

He looks massively outclassed coming off a Gosford Class 1 win, with nothing in the figures to suggest it was better than that.

NZ visitor who looks outclassed on his best form and he’s already had 8 runs this preparation.

The only filly in the field and 2nd highest rated on career peaks behind Tarzino. She was beaten two lengths in the Australian Guineas with a 98 rating and will no doubt take fitness improvement from that run. We know the extra distance is suitable and while the wide draw presents a challenge which has to be allowed for, it’s reasonable to see her hitting at least a 99 rating in this race, if not something in the 100-101 range. That makes her one of the top chances.

Betting Strategy

There are two key value chances in the race:

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) River Wild – 45% of your chosen outlay on the race

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Le Romain – 55% of your chosen outlay on the race

 

 

 

TRB