The Rating Bureau: ATC Sires Produce Stakes

Posted: March 31, 2016

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Race Assessment

R6: ATC Sires Produce Stakes – 1400m 2YO G1 SW $1,000,000

 

The Track

The track is currently a Heavy 8 (Thursday) and the rail is in the inside position. Warm sunny weather is forecast for the remainder of Thursday, Friday and Saturday so we should be racing on a Soft 5 – Soft 6 at worst.

Historically when the rail is true and the sting is out of the ground, we see the inside section of the track inferior to out wider. It’s not impossible to lead and win (especially in sprint races), as long as the Jockey steers away from the fence around the home turn. Middle barrier draws and racing off pace to midfield are more suited than is normally the case.

Speed and Tactics 

Pace looks likely to come from Sparkle (3) and Detective (6), while Damien Oliver on Attention (1) could elect to be aggressive and attempt to hold them out. The ‘out wide’ pressure may come from Good Standing (12) depending on how he jumps. He’s not especially fast though so even if he does cross, the pace is still likely to be somewhere between moderate and below average.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate to Below Average

Late Pace Rating: Average to Above Average

Best Suited: Front half of the field – although overall talent and finding the right section of the track can override any pace disadvantage.

Race Overview

Below are the ratings that recent Sires Produce winners have run to:

  • 2015 – Pride Of Dubai – 101.2
  • 2014 – Peggy Jean – 101
  • 2013 – Guelph – 103
  • 2012 – Pierro – 106
  • 2011 – Helmet – 102.7
  • 2010 – Yosei – 100.5
  • 2009 – Manhattan Rain – 103
  • 2008 – Sebring – 104

 

Since 2008 the average winner rating has been 102.7, pulled down somewhat by well below average rating editions in the last 2 years. This year looks likely to see a stronger figure with Yankee Rose well established at the 103+ level, Omei Sword 100.5 with scope to improve and Telperion around the 99 level with the potential to hit at least a 101 rating in this race.

It’s hard to imagine the winning benchmark being less than 101 in this race and it could potentially be as high as 104-105.

Runner by Runner Analysis 

He was a very good run in the Golden Slipper after giving a massive start early and running home strongly, unlucky not to get third place. Stepping up to 1400m and being able to settle somewhere between three and five lengths off the lead (rather than 7+ lengths) gives him an ideal scenario to elevate to a new peak rating between 101 and 103. He’s one of the top chances.

He struck early trouble in the Golden Slipper, but was still entitled to do more in the run home, beaten 6.7 lengths.  His first up 101.9 rating makes him a contender for this race, especially as 1400m is suitable, it’s just a question of whether he can bounce back from last start. He’s hard to assess with confidence.

He ran a 98 rating wining a ‘sit and sprint’ VRC Sires Produce, but his turn of foot between the 600m and 200m in that race was outstanding for a 2YO and indicative of a horse that has higher rating peaks to come.

One big concern though is the stable’s record at ‘travelling’ horses to compete in Sydney. Since 2013 David Hayes has shipped 60 horses from a last start Victorian run to Sydney for zero winners. 32 of them were in Group or Listed races and 29 ran unplaced.

Seaburge is a talented horse, but it’s hard to forecast him running to a big new career peak in this race. We have to be a little negative on him.

Ran a 91.3 rating winning at Rosehill last Saturday and even though he may improve on that performance on the quick back up, the gap to the winning standard here seems far too great. Barrier 1 is also a negative.

Was only beaten 0.8 lengths by Seaburge last start in a new career peak 96.4 rating. He returns from Melbourne back to his home track here and that could see him run to another new peak, but it’s a big step up to get into the winning zone of 101+

Hit the line well behind Souchez last start (94.8 rating) but this is a massive step up, which looks beyond him at this stage.

Comes out of a strong rating 2YO race at Kembla where he was slowly away and powered home late for third. He’s no doubt better than his 91.5 from that run suggests and the stable can spring a surprise in big races, but it’s still hard to see him good enough to measure up.

Her 0.5L second in the Golden Slipper was no fluke. Back in November she beat Good Standing in a very strong 103 rating, which still had her ranked as the second best 2YO in the Country going into the Golden Slipper… a mark she well and truly justified. She went to a new peak in that race of 103.6 and with fitness improvement you would think she can only improve.

A soft track is unknown, but the step up to 1400m definitely suits and she’s drawn ideally for the way the track is likely to play. She’s impossible to fault in this race and looks excellent value in current markets.

Both of her career wins, including her 94.5 rating peak last start have come on soft ground, so that aspect seems in her favour. However given she’s from the Hayes Stable (see record about travelling horses under Seaburge) and is well and truly short of the winning benchmark, she’s hard to like.

Did her best work late when beaten 2.8L behind Calliope and Omei Sword in the Magic Night stakes last start. 1400m should suit and she does have a win on Heavy ground, but the step to compete for the win here looks far too great.

She’s impressed in both career runs so far, the latest when a fast finishing second to Calliope in the Magic Night Stakes, earning a strong 100.5 rating.  She’s certainly looking for 1400m and that puts her in this race with a very competitive chance. Drawing Barrier 2 though is far from ideal.

Never underestimate Gai Waterhouse in a 2YO race, but with a peak of 85.5 Sparkle looks massively outclassed.

Betting Strategy

There’s really only one horse to back here and that’s Yankee Rose. She has dominant ratings, scope to improve, is suited by 1400m and is drawn well for the track.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Yankee Rose – 2.3% of total betting bank

 

 

 

 

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