The Pink Sheets: Morphettville, Saturday 7th May – Over The Line Punting

Posted: May 6, 2016

Over The Line Punting

The Pink Sheets – Morphettville, Saturday 7th May

 

R6 Australasian Oaks 2000m SW 3yoF Group 1

Race Assessment and Confidence

Race Confidence: High

If no rain has fallen by this stage Silent Sedition and C’est Beau La Vie can run the quinella once again. They were dominant when racing on the pace & kicking strongly in the 1800m lead up last start and they look to get every chance to do so here as well. Beluga Blue is over the odds based on a forgive run last start and a positive SP profile. Pasadena Girl has claims at good odds. Back all four as suggested. Arcadia Dream, First Impressions and Asinara round out the main chances. Lay Abbey Marie who appears unders.

Major Players

6. Silent Sedition: Very solid win G3 Morpthettville 1800m last start when kicked very strongly in the straight. Drawn to get every chance once again & looks the hardest to beat.

7. C’est Beau La Vie: Very solid second G3 Morpthettville 1800m last start when also kicked very strongly in straight. Prior start very solid as well and looks a serious contender again.

12. Beluga Blue: Unsuited last start and best to overlook the run. Prior form solid and placed second in G2 Wakeful Stks in October 2015. Started $9 last start. Over the odds.

1. Pasadena Girl: G1 winning 2yo but hasn’t won for 13 months. Comes here fresh off a 28 day break and must respect with top jockey, good barrier and top trainer.

2. Arcadia Dream: Quality WA filly who placed in G3 WA Oaks before winning G2 WA Derby last start. Drawn poorly and bar plates go on but must respect.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Pasadena Girl – 1 unit at $16.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Silent Sedition – 2 units at $4.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) C’est Beau La Vie – 1 unit at $8.50

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Beluga Blue – 2 units at $15.00

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Abbey Marie

 

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 6

 

 

R7 Robert Sangster Stakes WFA F&M 1200m Group 1

Race Assessment and Confidence

Confidence: High

If no rain has fallen by this stage Scarlet Billows is an excellent value bet on the back of very solid recent form & solid 1200m credentials. Sheidel has figures to win and maps to get every chance. Sabatini can get over the top of them late with even luck from barrier. Super Cash is suited to pressure 1200m here. Back all four as suggested. Don’t Doubt MammaGriante, I Love It, Private Secretary and Tuscan Sling round out the principal chances in a very good race. Lay Petits Filous who appears unders basis a query on her at 1200m.

Major Players

11. Scarlet Billows: Excellent win last start in very solid figures Caulfield 1400m & beaten 1.3L’s behind Chautauqua and Delectation over 1200m in October 2015. Big chance.

3. Sheidel: Excellent overall record and produced very solid figures to win Caulfield LR 1100m last start. Unbeaten at 1200m & drawn to get every possible chance! Strong claims.

9. Sabatini: Started $7.5 this race last year and disappointing but has form to be a live chance on her best form. Wouldn’t surprise with even luck from barrier.

21. Super Cash: Very talented 3yo filly & suited at 1200m with the pressure on up front than she has been recently. Solid chance and include in everything.

18. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Another very talented 3yo filly & must be respected although probably slightly better suited at 1400m in this grade. Will be storming home.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sheidel – 1 unit at $11.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sabatini – 2 units at $13.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scarlet Billows – 2 units at $13.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Super Cash – 1 unit at $14.00

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Petits Filous

 

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 7

 

R8 Queen Of The South Stakes SWP 3yo+ F&M 1600m Group 2 

Race Assessment and Confidence

Confidence: Medium

Lucky Lago doesn’t win often but did enough first up to suggest she’d run very well from a good draw. Loveitt is progressive & although she’ll get back from barrier she will be suited if winners are running on (check pattern!) Into The Mist is a serious contender. Back all three as suggested. French Emotion and Metaphorical have solid claims also whilst stablemates Atlantis Dream and Felicienne round out the main chances and wouldn’t surprise with luck from poor draws.

Major Players

8. Lucky Lago: Only 1 win since September 2013 but run some very good races in Group company since. Forgive last start with flat after very solid first up run. Any rain wouldn’t hurt.

18. Loveitt: Looks a progressive mare & has claims on very solid recent form. Drawn awkwardly and may need luck but any rain would assist.

10. Into The Mist: Dominant winner last start when ran a very good L800m to win strongly. Drawn for an economical run once again & has strong claims.

9. French Emotion: Racing in very good form and looks to be a leading contender despite getting very deep into her prep. Yet to miss a place. Top jockey and top trainer.

7. Metaphorical: Having her first start for new stable & has to be considered on back of Group placings recently in Victoria. Drawn awkwardly but respect.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lucky Lago – 1 unit at $13.00

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Into The Mist – 2 units at $5.50

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Loveitt – 2 units at $15.00

 

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 8