The Pink Sheets: Morphettville, Saturday 16th April – Over The Line Punting

Posted: April 15, 2016 at 12:39 pm

Over The Line Punting

 

The Pink Sheets – Morphettville, Saturday 16th April

 

R6 Breeders’ Stakes 2YO SW 1200m Group 3

Race Assessment and Confidence

Confidence: Medium

Ariaz was impressive from a wide barrier at SANH on debut. She is drawn better here and the data suggests that 1200m will suit. She is the one they have to beat. Smart Manouevre has the best figures based on her second on debut and can improve on firstup run l/st with blinkers on here. I’m happy to back both of those as suggested below. With A Bit Of Dash has talent and can win off a freshen up whilst Explosive Gift is well related & should be considered on debut.

Major Players

7. Ariaz: Very good debut win SANH 1000m wh ranked #1/day for L8/6/4&200m! Should be suited at 1200m and looks very hard to beat from a better barrier.

11. Smart Manoeuvre: Inconclusive first up but with blinkers on expect an improved showing. Debut second at Morphettville 1050m was very good so looks the main danger.

9. With A Bit Of Dash: Seven weeks since last run and comes in fresh. Should get a good run third out from good barrier. Data is only MOD but may well have improved!?

2. Explosive Gift: First starter. No public trials so have nothing to go on. Related to some smart types though so must respect despite poor barrier.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ariaz – 5 units at $2 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Smart Manoeuvre – 2 units at $4.5 or more

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 6

 

R7 Port Adelaide Guineas 3yo SW LR 1800m

 

Race Assessment and Confidence

Confidence: Low

Was all set to confidently select Burton prior to his scratching but in his absence this presents as a tricky race. Ballybrit could represent the best value in the race and certainly needs to be respected at good odds so long as she hasn’t had enough. Back her as suggested blow. Mail It In, Howard Be Thy Name and Colonel Custer look the next best & all have genuine chances whilst Hardern and Metro Cowboy must be given some respect also.

Major Players

19. Ballybrit: Raced a little flat last start after an OK run in fast run race at Monne Valley 1600m G3 the start before. Has SOL claims & can win if hasn’t had enough.

4. Mail It In: Very solid win at MRPK 1550m last start and meets similar opposition here. Yet to win at Morphettville and drawn awkwardly but has genuine claims.

5. Howard Be Thy Name: Getting very deep into his first prep and has been everywhere too! Freshened for a VSOL win at Pakenham BM70 1600m last start. Must respect.

6. Colonel Custer: Ran second in the spring equivalent of this race but was no match for Mail It In last start. Can figure in the money again if he settles better l/st.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Ballybrit – 1 unit at $12 or more

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 7