The Pink Sheets: Morphettville, Saturday 14th May – Over The Line Punting

Posted: May 13, 2016

Over The Line Punting

The Pink Sheets – Morphettville, Saturday 14th May

 

R4 Adelaide Guineas 1600m 3yo SW LR

Race Assessment and Confidence

Race Confidence: Medium

This appears to be a race of just four principal chances but all have some little ‘chinks’ in their armour. Royal Guard has good fig’s over a shorter trip & gets blinkers on but is at 1600m for the first time. Happy to speculate him as suggested below. Whirlpool has solid form and showed peak third up on a very quick back up but can get out of her ground. Antelucan brings winning VIC Metro form but has just modest figures and Lahqa is racing well but very deep into prep. Lay Beautiful Flyer who is ‘unders’.

Major Players

6. Royal Guard: Interesting runner. Has the best figures but they were over 1050m and this is 1600m second up with blinkers on. Do not underestimate.

14. Whirlpool: Lightly raced & set to peak after solid fourth at Flemington 1400m last week. Hoping she may sit closer from a better barrier today and solid claims.

8. Antelucan: Last start winner Caulfield 1600m when raced on pace third out. Figures only moderate though but drawn well for top jockey and top trainer combo.

9. Lahqa: Second to Antelucan last start at Caulfield 1600m and was all but equal to her based on overall figures. Very deep into prep though and probably no upside.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Royal Guard for 1 unit at $12

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Beautiful Flyer

 

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 4

 

R7 SA Derby 2500m 3yo SW Group 1

Race Assessment and Confidence

Race Confidence: Medium

Tarquin has best figures from 2000m and he must settle better than last start to run out a strong 2500m – the blinkers come off here so should get his chance. Cool Chap is deep into campaign but trained by Freedman so probably has another run in him. Back both as suggested below. Charlevoix is still in first prep but must be respected. Howard Be Thy Name is a distance risk but has claims. Bullish Stock the best of the rest whilst Ascot Red wouldn’t shock.

Major Players 

3. Tarquin: Group 1 placed 2yo at 1600m and very good winner Caulfield BM90 2000m last start. Has top jockey engaged and if runs the trip should prove very hard to beat.

5. Cool Chap: Racing in great form and won VRC St Leger over 2800m last start. Drawn awkwardly but top trainer big chance with even luck in running.

6. Charlevoix: Lightly raced and trained by master trainer of stayers. Had five weeks since last start but it was a victory over Cool Chap. Demands respect.

1. Howard Be Thy Name: Racing in very good form but looks a little vulnerable at 2500m. Had the Tasmanian Derby over 2200m ‘shot to bits’ before fading very late.

10. Bullish Stock: All but equal to Cool Chap last start when travelled wide before finishing third to Cool Chap in the VRC St Leger. Drawn well & ‘sticks on’ all day.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tarquin for 3 units at $4.8

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cool Chap for 2 units at $5

 

The Pink Sheets full analysis for Morphettville Race 7