The Meadows, Saturday 5th March: The Form Hound

Posted: March 4, 2016 at 9:44 am

Form Hound

 

R6 Group 1 Australian Stayers Final – 725m 

Track Record: Space Star 41.933 seconds (Feb 2015)

Past Winners

2015 – Luna Jix
2014 – Destini Fireball
2013 – Destini Fireball
2012 – Thrilling Brat
2011 – Bobby Boucheau

Race Analysis

No Donuts has led all the way in his past two starts over this trip. He improved 3 lengths on his run in the Zoom Top in his heat last week and now has a better draw close to the rails. I can see him improving again on his best time here and he should be sitting a length or two off the leaders early at the worst.

Espraza has shown great improvement of late and she might be suited by other chasers out in front pressuring each other and she can click through her gears back in the field and finish with a flurry. Star Recall was sensational in her heat win and was 3 lengths quicker than her nearest rival, she may be pressured too much early here and this could take its toll later in the race but I am not game to bet against her.

Ima Misha Doll surprised me in scoring a gutsy heat win in her fist start over the distance but these rivals will be too strong for her this time around. Beks may get too far back but could finish into a placing.

Lioness Lulu would have shocked the greyhound racing world if she held on to win her heat, even though she has been in good form I couldn’t possibly have her. Dewana Babe has a poor draw here and I am inclined to risk. Tambay Bale is not the worst here but her chances have been cruelled by the poor wide draw.

Field & Stats

1. Lioness Lulu: No best time. Had first start over this trip in heat. Three of four career wins from Boxes 2-4. Recorded 1st split of 4.95. second in heat in 42.86.

2. No Donuts: Best 42.52. Group 1 Sale Cup winner over 650. Group 1 Zoom Top winner here on 20th February. Eight career wins from Boxes 1 and 2. 4.91 1st split.

3. Esparza: Best 42.69, recorded this time in heat win. Only missed placing once over this trip. Recorded 1st split of 5.17. Been placed in 13 of her past 15 starts.

4. Dewana Babe: No best time. Second in her heat with a 1st split of 5.09 and overall of 42.62. Never won here in five attempts, seven of 11 career wins from Boxes 6-8.

5. Star Recall: Best 42.32, recorded this time in heat win (her first start over this trip). 14 career wins from squeeze draws (Boxes 4-6).  Has won past five starts. 1st split in heat of 4.89.

6. Ima Misha Doll: Best 42.84, recorded this time in heat win, 1st split of 4.84. 2 wins and a placing in four starts from this draw.

7. Beks: Best 42.38. Has raced over this trip an amazing 37 times. Has amassed the most wins over this trip of any runner in field (6). Only one win from this draw. 42.86 in placing in heat with a 1st spit of 5.21.

8. Tambay Bale: Best 42.63. Second in heat with a 1st split of 4.97 and overall of 42.94. Never missed a placing of this trip (2 starts). 13 win from Boxes 1-4 and 4 from Boxes 4-8.

9. Chrichton Bale: First emergency. Best 42.79. Third in heat with a 1st split of 5.03 and 42.62 overall. Never missed a placing over this trip. Has won from all draws.

10. Ring The Bell: Second emergency. No best time. Third in heat in 42.87 with a 1st split of 5.02. Been placed in past four starts. Never won here in three attempts.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Espraza (3) >$9.00 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – No Donuts (2) >$1.95 for 3 units

 

R8 Group 1 Australian Cup Final – 525m 

Track Record: Allen Deed 29.376 (Jan 2015)

Past Winners

2015 – Luca Neveelk
2014 – Buckle Up Wes
2013 – Spud Regis
2012 – Zara Zulu
2011 – St Pierre

Race Analysis

Dyna Double One handled the drop back in distance superbly in his heat win last week and he has an astounding seven wins from seven starts from this draw. He was the beneficiary of a late scratching off the cherry which allowed him plenty of room early in his heat. He faces a lot more pressure here from chasers around him and I am going to look for value.

Pop The Cork has a great record from wide draws, recorded the fastest first split and the quickest heat time and has four wins from six starts since joining the Jason Thompson kennel. Thompson has an amazing five runners through to this final. He looks very well drawn here with no speed underneath him he looks right in the finish.

Diego Bale scored a stunning heat win and now has the prime inside draw here, he could get forward early and give a big sight. Aston Bolero and Black Frenzy can both show sizzling early pace but I believe they would need a stack of early bother behind them to be able to hold on for a win. I am happy to take them on.

Xtreme Knocka was the slowest qualifier through to the final, he is extremely strong but he is likely to get shuffled back here. Moreira railed hard in his heat win and is chasing confidently, the draw does him no favours but could run into a placing. Ernest Bale will get too far back on the first turn and would need carnage to take place at the first marker to feature in the finish.

Field & Stats

1. Diego Bale: Best 29.64, recorded this time in heat win, 1st split of 5.05. 5 wins from Box 1-2. Eight wins over this trip. Placed in Group 1 National Derby Final at Wentworth Park.

2. Dyna Double One: Best 29.43. Won his heat in 29.64 with a 1st split of 5.13. 2015 Group 1 Melbourne Cup Winner, 2016 Group 1 Rookie Rebel winner (600m).  Amazing seven from seven from Box 2. Has won his past five.

3. Aston Bolero: Best 29.88, recorded this time in heat win. 1st split of 5.05. Been placed in past nine of 11 starts. Five wins from five starts from this draw.

4. Xtreme Knocka: Best 29.80. Recorded slowest heat time of 30.09. 1st split of 5.20. Placed in 13 of 17 starts over this trip. Has won from every box.

5. Black Frenzy: Best 29.95, recorded this time in heat win. 1st split of 5.03. Last 5 wins have been leading all the way. Eight of 18 career wins from Boxes 4-6.

6. Moreira: Best 29.67, recorded this time in heat win. 1st split of 5.11. 8 of 13 career wins from Boxes 1-4, 5 wins from Boxes 5-8. Placed 8 of 11 over this trip.

7. Ernest Bale: Best 29.89. Won his heat in 29.93, 1st split of 5.33 which was the slowest. 5 wins from Box 7. Six wins over this trip.

8. Pop The Cork: Best 29.61, recorded this time in heat win (quickest). 1st split of 4.97 (quickest). Three wins from 4 starts from Box 8. Led all the way in his past two starts.

9. Shared Equity: First emergency. Best 29.83. Second in heat in a time of 29.68, 1st split of 5.00. Wide runner. Has won from every box.

10. Dalgetty: Second emergency. Best 29.42, second in heat with a time of 29.81. 1st split of 5.07. Group 1 Temlee winner over this trip. Three wins from four starts this trip.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Pop The Cork (8) >$3.00

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Diego Bale (1) > $6.50