Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy
Wentworth Park: Saturday 19th March
Race 1 – Association Cup Heat 1
#2 Star Recall
Impossible to go past this front running stayer who has won her past six starts. She looks impeccably drawn to find the rails early and lead all the way. She is a recent winner of the Group 1 Australian Stayers Final at The Meadows and this race looks much easier.
#6 Where Art Thou
Even though she won at Richmond last start I expected her to absolutely demolish her rivals when she was in a forward position in the back straight, but instead she only just won. When she is working her way through the field she is excruciating to watch and seems prone to making mistakes. I believe she will get too far back here.
Race 2 – Association Cup Heat 2
#4 No Donuts
This chaser has been up for a while. He has competed in the Sale Cup series, the Summer Distance Plate series at Wentworth Park and the Australian Stayers series at The Meadows. He has had a heavy workload with frequent travel and he missed the start in his last outing. He needs to get forward early to show his best. I am not saying he can’t win but I will be watching his price very carefully and if he is $1.60 or less I will happily take him on from this squeeze draw and some handy stayers are in this field.
#6 Ryno’s Raider
His runs over this trip previously should prove valuable. He is strong and will lap up this distance range. Giving me an added confidence is the fact he has gone close to beating No Donuts previously and if he can land a position along the fence down the back straight he could unleash a powerful finish.
Race 3 – Association Cup Heat 3
#2 Tizza Nitro
Even though her past three starts have been in much easier company, all you can do is win. I was impressed with her run at Richmond over 717m where she kept finding and scored a gutsy win. She looks well drawn to lead early and I am hoping with a shuffle up behind her she can hold on to win.
#3 Dublin Bull
He has lost his early speed in his past two starts at The Meadows where he has been very costly in losing at short odds. I prefer him from a wide draw so he can balance up and go through his gears and he may not get that chance from this draw. I recommend a very small lay bet here as the race is weak overall.
Race 4 – Golden Easter Egg Semi Final 1
#7 Rare Pearl
He can be very risky early but with this chaser he is going to get back anyway so box draws don’t really worry me. On his night he is one of the quickest dogs in the country and even if he was six lengths off the leader on the home turn, he is still capable of finishing with a flurry down the outside. Bearville Azza and Asa Killa Queen don’t quite run out 520m so this should go in Rare Pearl’s favour.
#5 Asa Killa Queen
She had every chance here last week where she had the benefit of the inside draw, was way out in front and still got run down by the smart Black Bear Lee. Now, she has a squeeze draw and has a stack of early speed underneath her in Bearville Azza, Good Odds Angel and Outside Pass. The pressure will be too high for her tonight.
Race 5 – Golden Easter Egg Semi Final 2
I thought he was very lucky in his heat run last week, he missed the start and headed down to the fence and then received a saloon run through on the first turn and I thought he had every chance to run down Marley Bale. Tonight, his draw is even worse and could get caught out wide. Even if he were to miss the start and rail through there are too many other top quality chasers in this event including Knight Sprite, Nangar Flash and Marley Bale and they have more upside here.
#2 Elfen Bale
This littermate to champion chaser Fernando Bale is always thereabouts in his races but struggles to win of late. He hasn’t won in his past six starts. I would love to own him but he just seems a rung below the top grade and I think his best may be behind him. He would need to lead clearly at the first turn to have any chance of winning and there is too much pressure on his outside here.
Race 6 – Golden Easter Egg Semi Final 3
#1 Duna Runa
I was amazed she began so quickly in her heat last week and she looks to be flying at present. She has an outstanding draw here. Tap Out Rose in Box 2 tends to mid track out of the boxes so she should get a stack of room. If she can get forward early I can’t see anything catching her and she is capable of a 29.60 run here.
#3 Amaro Bale
He doesn’t have the early zip of the chasers around him but I think he can drop to the rails nicely running to the first peg, rail strongly and run into the placings. There could be trouble on the first turn here with Mitcharlie Mia trying to cross the field and he may be able to avoid it.
Race 7 – Golden Easter Egg Semi Final 4
#3 Snakebite Bale
I just loved the way he got forward early in his heat last week running down the crown of the track. The race was over after the first turn. He arguably has an even better draw here as Brad Hill Billy and Blue Revolver are usually only moderately away and they shouldn’t hassle him early. He is capable of going even quicker than his 29.74 PB and he is hard to go against.
#2 Black Bear Lee
He saluted for ‘Form Hound’ Punters last week and I don’t plan on jumping off him. He just kept coming and coming last week and finished strongly. He will need to improve on the clock here and he may even need to beat his PB of 29.69. He is capable of doing so. He has a great record from Box 2 including three wins and two placings from seven starts.