The Form Hound’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Wentworth Park Saturday 12 March

Posted: March 11, 2016

Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy

Wentworth Park: Saturday 12 March

 

Race 2 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 1 

#6 Moreira  

Last week he competed in the Australian Cup Final and he met a stack of trouble on the first turn when trying to find the rail. He then stormed home late in the race and his run was better than what it appeared on paper. Although Box 6 is far from ideal I believe he is simply better than these and if he can get within a few lengths of the lead by the staying boxes he should prove too strong.

#1 Marley Bale 

I haven’t been that impressed with his past few runs and he has been missing the kick at box rise of late. He is one of those chasers where he needs plenty of room early in his races and doesn’t like being crowded. Box 1 is not to his liking and I believe he may panic and want off the track on the first turn and meet plenty of trouble.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Moreira >$1.90 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Marley Bale <$3.60 for 3 units

 

Race 3 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 2

#8 Skate Thin Ice 

I have always been keen to play whenever she has a wide draw. She tends to mid track in her races and she should stay wide early and avoid any potential early trouble. Zipping Meg is a keen railer and Aston Ebert should begin well and give her a nice cart into the race. She should be forgotten about in the market and could reach ridiculously good odds. Her recent runs in Victoria should prove to be valuable experience against these rivals.

#7 Zipping Meg 

She resumed from a spell with a luckless run at The Meadows but this was in Wednesday class. She now steps up to a top class race here second up from the dreaded Box 7. If she had an inside draw I wouldn’t dream of betting against her but I just can’t see her crossing these rivals. She is likely to get too far back on the first turn. If she somehow lands on the rails mid race I will be very worried but I am happy to take her on from this poor draw.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – Skate Thin Ice >$12.00/$3.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Zipping Meg < $3.60 for 2 units

 

Race 4 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 3

#8 Xtreme Knocka

He took a tumble in the Group 1 Australian Cup final last week but has appeared to show no ill effects from that run. This veteran chaser has a great record from all Boxes so the extreme draw should not worry him. From Box 8 he has had 14 starts and been in the money 8 times. He is as strong as an ox and his last win at The Meadows was brilliant as he was turned sideways on the first turn. Due to the fall last start he should be over the odds and I am hoping Opus Forte can give him plenty of room early.

#2 Magic Spring 

He was a successful ‘lay of the day’ last week for Form Hound backers. He does not seem to appreciate inside draws and this was evident last week when he again speared off on the first turn. Similar should happen again here and even if he was able to lead clearly early, if any of Dawkins Bale, Opus Forte or Xtreme Knocka landed right behind him they would run over the top of him late

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Xtreme Knocka > $5.50 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Magic Spring < $7.00 for 2 units

 

Race 5 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 4

#3 Zambora Brockie 

He set the track alight at The Meadows last start over 600m and his confidence seems to be sky high. Trainer Anthony Azzopardi has said previously that the dog performs better in New South Wales boxes than Victorian boxes so a return to his home track should be seen as a positive. He should be able to find the rail early here and just needs to avoid Shared Equity early as she likes to use plenty of the track in her races. Ideally, she will beat Brockie out and give him a stack of room to rail like a go kart on the first turn and be too strong.

#4 Goldengrove Lad

He was benefited by the small field and the inside draw here last Saturday. I can’t see him getting any favours from this draw and if he is squeezed early in his races he tends to spit the dummy and go right back through the field. His 29.77 win here last week may create a small lay opportunity and he could be unders in betting.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Zambora Brockie > $2.40 for 5 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Goldengrove Lad < $8.50 for 3 units

 

Race 6 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 5

#8 Dalgetty 

I am hoping he can get to the right price here and the outside draw should give him plenty of room to muster early and show what he is made of. There was no shame in losing to Diego Bale in his Australian Cup Heat (he still ran a slick 29.81). I am banking on the outside draw being the difference maker in turning the tables on Diego Bale. The Jason Thompson kennel has been flying of late and when in doubt he is worth sticking with.

#6 Star Torana 

This chaser has been in great form of late and was luckless in the Richmond Oaks last start. She is one of those chasers that can show good form from any draw, she just needs to get to the crown of the track without being hassled.  She has been in the money in 13 of 17 starts here and her best form has come over this circuit. If she can find a forward position watch her finish powerfully.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dalgetty > $2.60 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Star Torana > $6.50 for 1 unit

 

Race 7 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 6

#2 Black Frenzy 

He led for a long way in the Australian Cup last week until he was nailed late by million dollar superstar chaser Dyna Double One. He looks very well drawn to lead early and safely rail through on the first turn. His racing style looks perfect for Wentworth Park. His previous experience over this trip before being sent to the Thompson kennel should prove valuable. The two wins from six starts over this trip doesn’t concern me as this was early in his career. I am obviously worried about Knight Sprite but banking on him finding some trouble early in this top class race.

#6 Eaton Bale 

He scored a sizzling 34.18 win at Sandown Park over 595m last week and again appears to be forgotten about in the market here. He has really been finishing his races powerfully and if there is any trouble early in this race he could sail around these rivals and finish like a freight train. Keep your eye on this chaser going forward.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Black Frenzy > $2.90 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – Eaton Bale > $26/$4.50 for 1 unit

 

Race 8 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 7

#5 Mitcharlie Mia

It is unusual to lay a chaser who has won her past five starts but she is winless in three attempts over this trip where she has had Boxes 4,5,6 and again tonight’s draw is no help. She also has not raced here since late November. There looks to be plenty of early pace from Black Illusion, Good Odds Regina and Big Tee Rex and something may have to give on the first turn.

 #2 Black Illusion 

He had no luck from an unsuitable draw in an Australian Cup heat two weeks ago and he looks much more suitably drawn in this event. He should be able to beat Brad Hill Billy out and find a safe position along the paint and click through his gears and hold on for a placing.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Mitcharlie Mia < $3.80 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Black Illusion > $1.75 for 4 units

 

Race 9 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 8

#8 Black Bear Lee

He fell over this trip last week but prior to this his form was outstanding including three wins from four starts at Bulli and Wentworth Park all in the best time of the night.  He has had four starts from Box 8 for three wins and a placing and has the most wins over this trip of any chaser in the field. With Asa Killa Queen being in great form she will be over bet and this chaser will be over the odds. I still have a question mark over Asa Killa Queen over this distance range.

#4 Berzerk 

I have always thought this chaser is overrated. He needs things to go his own way to show his best, he needs to lead and get to the crown of the track and doesn’t seem to race well when in traffic. I can’t see him leading early and this draw is no help to him and there should be plenty of pressure early from Black Bear Lee and Elfen Bale.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Black Bear Lee > $3.30 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Berzerk < $7.00 for 4 units

 

Race 10 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 9

#1 Good Odds Angel

I would prefer to backing this chaser off a wide draw in a top class race like this. She likes to use plenty of the track early. She has won from this draw here previously but in a much easier race. She may bump into Timmy’s Entity early and this could be the undoing of her. Due to her good form of late and low SP’s, I believe she will be way under the odds.

#2 Timmy’s Entity 

When he was on his hot form streak in February he was out in front and making his own luck, but these were in restricted win type races. Since stepping up in class he has found the pressure too great, especially when contesting an Australian Cup heat. He meets 4 gun Victorian chasers in this event- Above All, Invictus Rapid, Snakebite Bale and Blue Revolver and they have more claims in this event.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Good Odds Angel < $6.50 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Timmy’s Entity < $8.50 for 3 units

 

Race 11 – Golden Easter Egg Heat 10

#4 Aston Bolero

He can take a stride or two to kick into full gear but once he balances up he can show fantastic acceleration. His early burn looks suited to a track like this and he may be able to set up a sizeable break early and hold on for a win. He recently won a heat of the Australian Cup at The Meadows and didn’t have much luck in the final. That form reads well for this.

#7 Spritely Dancer 

He is first up from an injury enforced spell here and I can’t see him crossing from this wide draw. He would need to lead clearly to have any chance of winning. Six of his 11 career wins have come from Boxes 1 and 2. If he can sneak into a placing he is a dog to follow next week if he were to draw well but I am thinking he will need the run tonight.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Aston Bolero > $2.50 for 5 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Spritely Dancer < $12.00 for 3 units