The Form Hound’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Sandown Park Thursday 19 March

Posted: May 19, 2016 at 10:39 am

Form Hound

Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy

Sandown Park: Thursday May 19

 

Race 1 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 1

#7 Wind Whistler 

Despite being close to four years old, this chaser is racing in career best form. He’s been in the prizemoney in his past eight starts and was dominant winning the Group 3 Lizrene over this trip. He looks well drawn out wide as it is crucial that he avoids early trouble so he can click through his gears. I love how this chaser shows great race sense and can weave inside or outside other greyhounds. Looks a standout.

#6 Ryno’s Raider 

This chaser continues to find a stack of trouble in his races and Box 6 looks no help here. He hasn’t won in his past 10 starts even though his average starting price has been around $7. He needs to do everything right here and I just can’t see him not making any mistakes.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wind Whistler >$3.20 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Ryno’s Raider <$7.00 for 2 units

Race 2- RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 2

#5 Sally Gardens 

I thought she was pretty luckless over this trip last week. She generally runs 5 or 6 off the fence mid tracking and needs plenty of room to move with no other chasers hassling her too her outside. It’s likely she can land in this position and I know she will keep finding the line over this distance range.

#8 Come on Fantasy 

Not convinced this chaser is going as well as she was several months ago. She does her best racing when she is untouched out in front and she will have to burn plenty of energy crossing these rivals. This may tell on her late and I expect her to be swamped. 10 of her 14 career wins have come from Boxes 1-4 and she has never won from Box 7 or 8.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Sally Gardens > $5.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Come On Fantasy < $6.00 for 2 units

Race 3 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 3

#8 Burn One Down 

Probably the hardest heat on paper. It’s very interesting that gun trainer Jason Thompson is entering this potential superstar over the distance trip at only his sixth start. I’m convinced he has loads of potential as a stayer however it may be a case of too much too soon.

He could not have found a more competitive heat here with veteran stayers Luna Jinx and Esparza who can run all day. There will also be a stack of early pressure from Dewana Result, Evidence and Cardiology who could be out in front and he may hit the wall by the home turn.

#2 Esparza 

Not quite confident enough to back her to win in a deep race but I’m confident she can place. She should be able to settle along the rails in the back half of the field and with plenty of pressure upfront, she will be in the best of the closers and go very close.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Burn One Down < $3.50 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Esparza > $1.50 for 4 units

Race 4 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 4

#3 Pink Shoelaces 

This promising stayer could be the real deal and I am happy to stick with her whilst she is running around a great price on the exchange. Even though it was a much weaker field here last week all you can do is win, and she did so by leading all the way. She should be able to avoid early trouble and get to the rails early and give a great sight.

#4 Lithgow Panther 

He’s only had three runs since resuming from a spell over the sprint and middle distances. I just feel he has fallen short of the mark as a good stayer. He has not raced over the 700 metre trip since late November last year. Prior to that, he was beaten in his past 8 starts over the staying journey. Combined with the squeeze draw there are way too many reasons to be against him for mine.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Pink Shoelaces > $5.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Lithgow Panther < $3.20 for 3 units

Race 5 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 5

#2 Kilkee Flex 

This chaser can be hard to catch but at least you know she will more than likely find a forward position and make her own luck. She looks well drawn to find the rails and pinch an early break on most of the field (I expect No Donuts to go with her early) and I am hoping she will have a kick late and win.

#6 No Donuts 

I am happy to roll the dice here as he has not raced in nearly a month and will likely be well into red figures here. He should be able to ping the lids as he will be on the fresh side but I am hoping some early pressure from Kilkee Flex and possibly Dr Leonardo he may tire late and get over run. Happy to lay at the short quote.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kilkee Flex > $4.20 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) No Donuts < $1.80 for 2 units

Race 7 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 6

#3 Alpha Nemesis 

This looks a tricky heat with many of these chasers mixing their form. I am willing to forgive her run here last start after finding trouble. She doesn’t like pressure from her outside, so if she lands on the bunny early she will take catching.

#5 Seeking Justice 

He has been back to his costly best since returning to Victoria after winning the Group 1 Galaxy at Cannington. He has missed the start twice here recently and this draw looks no easier. He may get too far back and whilst I expect him to fly home, it may be all too late.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Alpha Nemesis > $6.00 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Seeking Justice < $5.00 for 2 units

Race 9 – RSN927 Sandown Cup Heat 7

#1 Lioness Lulu

An interesting stat here is that she has never won from Box 1 in 11 starts. She likes plenty of room early as she does her best chasing when out in front early. I expect her to get shuffled back here and find a stack of trouble. This also her twelfth start in 12 weeks so she has been up for a considerable length of time.

#5 Springvale Byrne 

She has been in great form over the 731m journey at Angle Park in much weaker races. She does show good early pace but I think she will get swallowed up quickly against a much higher grade of rivals here.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Lioness Lulu < $3.50 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Springvale Byrne < $7.50 for 2 units