The Form Hound’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Cannington Saturday 16th April

Posted: April 15, 2016

Form Hound

Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy

Cannington: Saturday 16th April

 

Race 1 – Sky Racing Perth Cup Heat 1

#2 Miss Betsy 

She came from a mile back to score here recently, has the new track experience and she is desperate for the fence. With gun chaser Dalgetty on her inside and pressure from Marley Bale, Bearville Azza and Senator Monelli charging across there could be some trouble on the first turn. If she can rail and avoid the trouble she’s a mile of the odds.

#8 Senator Monelli

This chaser resumes from a spell here and must be going well for connections to have a ‘throw at the stumps’ first up in a heat of the Perth Cup. He has never missed a placing in his 12 start career and can show great early acceleration. He cannot be dismissed in any race and has the potential to be one of WA’s future superstars. He will get to a nice price because he has yet to race at Cannington but he is likely to have trialed leading up to this.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Miss Betsy > $12.00/$2.80 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Senator Monelli > $7.00 for 2 units

 

Race 2 – Box 1 Restaurant Perth Cup Heat 2

#2 Sette Bello

 This star chaser has been in great form at Northam, winning in the best times of the night. She has great early speed and looks well drawn to find the rail early. She has a great record from inside draws and I’m happy to stick with her.

 #4 Fantastic Roxy 

There is plenty of speed and strength on her inside and outside. Group 1 Easter Egg winner Moreira will be charging across and I can’t see her beating Sette Bello to the first peg here. She is likely to get shuffled back here

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sette Bello > $7.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Fantastic Roxy < $5.50 for 3 units

 

Race 3 – Sky Racing Perth Cup Heat 3

#2 Shared Equity 

Although I would prefer her from a wide draw she has found one of the weaker heats here. She will be better for the run her last week and she looks like she can explode out of the lids, find a soft lead and hold on to win. The other main chances in the race, Dawkins Bale and Krugerrand look poorly drawn.

#1 Real Flash 

Even though she should get plenty of room early with Shared Equity running wide, I am just not convinced she has the class to win this race. She has not raced since November last year and I just can’t have her against these classy rivals after such a long break.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Shared Equity > $2.50 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Real Flash < $7.50 3 units

 

Race 4 – Love the Chase Perth Cup Heat 4

#6 Unlawful Entry 

Impossible to go past this chaser after his absolutely unbelievable track record run of 28.95 at Sandown Park. He has since followed this up with a win at The Meadows in slick time. Even though he has never won from this draw, he is actually well drawn out wide as he prefers to go around dogs rather than underneath them. The box draw may ensure he gets out to the right price but I am confident he can beat these rivals.

#4 Elfen Bale

This chaser continues to go around at under the odds due to the fact she is the littermate to Fernando Bale. She has not finished better than third in her past nine starts and the squeeze draw here is no help. There is pace underneath her with Eisenhower and Lektra Utopia and I just can’t see her obtaining a clear run.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Unlawful Entry > $2.40 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Elfen Bale < $8.00 for 3 units

 

Race 5 – Sky Racing Perth Cup Heat 5

#3 Dyna Irminus 

I thought his win here was sensational last week. He was having his first look at the track looking a little lost on the first turn but still balanced up superbly down the back straight to hold on for a strong win. I think he can improve on the clock here and he looks well drawn to again to find a forward position. I am sticking with him and he has the potential to be a future star of the Dailly/Wheeler camp.

#1 Fun Boss 

This chaser has been placed in 39 of his 49 starts. However, his last 19 starts have been at Mandurah and although this is one of the easier heats, I am just not interested in backing him if he gets close to red figures. He has not had a race start over this new circuit and at such a short quote I’d rather be against him.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dyna Irminus > $2.80 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Fun Boss < $2.20 for 3 units

 

Race 6 – FST Fun Affordable Galaxy Heat 1

#3 Hard Bargain 

Even though he is having first start over this distance range, this doesn’t look an overly strong race. He chases very hard and he should be able to lead early and open up a big margin mid-race. I am expecting him to tire late but hold on to win. Leading Victorian trainer Brett Bravo wouldn’t enter this talented chaser if he didn’t think he could win.

#5 Seeking Justice 

I’m not convinced he is going as well as he was several months ago. I thought he should have finished closer in a recent race at Bendigo. He has only ever had one start outside of Victoria and that was for a seventh place finish at Wentworth Park. I also prefer him from an inside draw and this draw looks very tricky as Heaps of Ability can use plenty of the track in his races.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hard Bargain > $3.60 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Seeking Justice < $4.50 for 2 units

Race 7 – Sky Racing Galaxy Heat 2

#4 Zipping Bella 

This chaser has plenty of upside and I am not concerned that this is her first start over 715m. She won with authority last start at Mandurah over 647m and she also boasts a win over this circuit over 600m. I am happy to take my chance on her finding the early lead and showing what she is made of against these rivals.

#1 Sweet Intention 

It is always a risk taking on a last start winner over the trip who also has a perfect record from Box One but I think she’s too short here. There is plenty of talent in the race with Zipping Bella, Dublin Bull and Spring Patsy. No surprise to see her fill a place but I am willing to risk her winning.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Zipping Bella > $4.00 for 2 units 

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Sweet Intention < $3.50 for 2 units  

 

Race 8 – Free Entry April 23 Perth Cup Heat 6

#5 Snakebite Bale 

I’m willing to forgive his run here last week where he looked lost around the circuit and I think he will be much better for the run. Even though the market expectation was high last start, you just have to be somewhat forgiving with the travel and first look at the track. The dog is a star and if he gets a sit behind the leaders he should fly home.

#8 Yunderup Dozer 

He is the sort of chaser who just needs to land in the right spot at the first turn in his races and although this draw is tricky, he shows great track sense in his races. He is capable of a barnstorming finish as evidenced here last start when he ran down Shared Equity which is no mean feat.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Snakebite Bale > $3.30 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Yunderup Dozer < $1.70 for 2 units

 

Race 9 – Sky Racing Galaxy Heat 3

#6 Luna Jinx 

She is not normally “one of mine” but there seems to be too many question marks with her rivals. She has returned to good form of late with her last two starts being wins over 731m at Angle Park and that reads well for this. She is well travelled and has raced all over the country in top staying grade. It’s D-Day!

#2 Dyna Nihilist 

I thought this chaser was well past his best when he was sent over to WA a few months ago but his recent form has been terrific without his fair share of luck. Although I would prefer him from a rails draw, I am happy to let him find his feet early and work through his gears and run into the placings.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Luna Jinx > $2.90 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Dyna Nihilist > $2.00 for 2 units

 

Race 10 – Fireworks April 23 Galaxy Heat 4

#7 Acheron

This chaser has been edging closer to a win in his past two starts over this trip against some quality stayers. She looks well drawn out wide to cross these rivals and be out in front and staying out of trouble. She was clipped when crossing early last start was probably the only reason she was nailed late on the line.

#3 Lioness Lulu 

She’s has been traveling all over the country over the past several weeks and this would have to have taken a toll on her. She hasn’t had a race start over this tricky new circuit which is another reason to be against her. Given her recent form, she will be very hard in the market.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Acheron > $3.20 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Lioness Lulu < $3.00 for 3 units

 

Race 11 – Fireworks April 23 Galaxy Heat 4

#6 Cobra Clutch

He’s been brilliant winning his past four starts, showing great racing sense and importantly winning from this draw over the new circuit last month. Diego Bale should stay out wide early which plays into his hands. Confident he can make it five in a row.

#8 Channing 

This chaser can explode out of the boxes and he may just do that here, however I just can’t see him crossing cleanly and I believe he will find trouble, getting shuffled back. He does his best racing when he leads, so I’m risking him, confident that won’t be the case.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cobra Clutch > $3.00 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Channing < $6.00 for 2 units

 

Race 12 – Perth Cup and Galaxy April 23- Cup Heat 8

#4 Ramifications 

This chaser has been the talking point of WA racing in recent starts. He has scored two blistering wins here by breaking the magical 30 second barrier over the new circuit with times of 29.91 and 29.99. He has scored four wins from the draw so squeeze draws do not bother him and even though this is his toughest test, there is no way I am jumping off him.

#2 Winsome Jacko 

I‘ve always thought this dog is a dead set “pinky” so he won’t be suited by the inside draw with plenty of early speed coming across him. He’ll be cramped for room, drops back in distance and rises in class which makes him a lay.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ramifications > $2.80 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Winsome Jacko < $4.50 for 4 units