The Betfair Insider: Saturday September 19 Randwick and Caulfield

Posted: September 18, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

 

Randwick, Saturday 19 September 2015

Track

Soft 5

Rail True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 20, Partly Cloudy. 70% chance of showers near the coast.

Saturday 19th – Max 20, 70% chance of showers, possible rainfall 3-15mm

 

R6 George Main Stakes G1 WFA 1600m

Speed Map:

George Main Stakes 2015

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been SP favs
  • 2 of past 5 winners Mares
  • 4 of past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd at their latest start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or less

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +8m, Good 4

1st – Sacred Falls – SP $4.00 fav 59kg BR 1 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $6.50 57kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

3rd – Laser Hawk – SP $61 59kg BR9 – 2nd up, 1 weeks 8th Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Streama – SP $8.50 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Warwick Stakes G2 1400m Warwick Farm

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $5.00 56.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Tramway G3 1400m Randwick

3rd – Veyron – SP $20 59kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 9th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

 

2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Shoot Out – SP $4.00 fav 59kg BR 4 – 1st up (3 x T), 17 weeks 2nd Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Rangirangdoo – SP $5.00 59kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Tramway G3 1400m Warwick Farm

3rd – Secret Admirer – SP $4.80 57kg BR 7  – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

 

2011 – Sincero – SP $2.15 fav 58.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Tramway G3 1400m Warwick Farm

2010 – More Joyous – SP $1.60 fav 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Theo Marks G2 1400 Rosehill

 

Major Players:

PornichetTerrific 1st up in the Warwick Stakes when 2nd beaten 1.5 lengths. Backed it up with 3.3 length defeat in the Chelmsford appearing to race flat, perhaps as a result of early interference in race or maybe looking for further? I’m surprised stable have not entered him in the Hill Stakes which looks a more suitable race for him. Has won multiple times 3rd up.

HookedLeader. Had a soft run 1st up and lead throughout in Tramway Stakes which is an ok lead up race for this. Nothing brilliant in his sectionals on that run and expect him to run well but think he’s a better fresh horse at 1400m than a miler.

KermadecGiven a soft run 1st up beaten only 2 lengths was huge. Pilot error 2nd up when left 3 wide without cover with no speed up front. This looks his ‘Grand Final’ and typically of Waller he profiles perfectly to win this. Drawn barrier 5 so can sit on or off fence with cover.  G1 Winner this track and trip in the Doncaster in the autumn.

SweynesseNice return 1st up without dazzling sectionals. Meets Kermadec 0.5 kg’s worse off when beaten in the Doncaster. Will stalk Kermadec in running but not convinced he has the fitness base to turn the tables here. 3rd or 4th up will be his peak.

Royal DescentRunner up in 2013 & 2014 editions of the race. As honest as ever this time in winning G2 Warwick Stakes 1st up. If Kermadec doesn’t fire she’s the horse to beat.

Lucia ValentinaGreat return 1st up when 6th in the G2 Tramway beaten only 1.6 lengths home last 400 22.81 200 11.55. Unplaced from 4 attempts 2nd up and will peak 3rd or 4th up. Turnbull Stakes or Caulfield Stakes looks like her type of race.

Betting Activity:

BACK – KermadecHas already been $3.20 into $2.80. Expecting him to SP at a Maximum price of $2.50.

 

 

R7 Hill Stakes G2 WFA 2000m

Speed Map:

Hill Stakes 2015

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the Chelmsford Stakes
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favs

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +8m, Good 4

1st – Junoob – SP $4.00 59kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

2nd – Criterion – SP $5.00 58kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 7th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

3rd – Bagman – SP $7.00 59kg BR 5 – 9th up, 2 weeks 3rd Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Moriarty – SP $2.80 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

2nd – Glencadam Gold – SP $5.00 59kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 8th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

3rd – Masked Marvel – SP $20 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 14th Makybe Diva G2 1600m Flemington

 

2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Lamasery – SP $3.50 fav 59kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Chelmsford G2 1600m Warwick Farm

2nd – Mourayan – SP $5.5 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Makybe Diva G2 1600m Flemington

3rd – Lights Of Heaven – SP $10 57kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 9th Chelmsford G2 1600m Warwick Farm

 

2011 – Trusting – SP $2.10 fav 59kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Chelmsford G2 1600m Warwick Farm

2010 – Descarado – SP $5.5 58kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 1 week 6th Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

 

Major Players:

ComplacentPinched the Chelmsford 2nd up with a slow 1200m-600m up front, then left main dangers off the bit between 600m-400m. An 11/10 ride from Sam Clipperton. Suspect he takes a sit this time and works into the race from the 600m mark again. Won this track and trip as a 3yo defeating Criterion.

Who Shot ThebarmanResumed nicely 1st up in Chelmsford and expect him to settle well back again here. Confident he’s a run away from his best with past Chris Waller trained winners of this race usually 3rd up. He’s a knockout but looks under the odds at single figures in early markets. Caulfield Cup looks suitable race for him.

Beaten UpSolid 1st up in the Warwick Stakes when 4th beaten 1.9 lengths. Looked disappointing 2nd up in Chelmsford when getting a soft run in transit. Suspect that run has brought him on and he’s been set for this as his ‘Grand Final’. Drawn off the fence and will either cart Complacent into the race or vice versa. I won’t be laying him.

GallanteInteresting Team Williams runner that follows a similar path as Masked Marvel 2013 3rd & Mourayan 2012 2nd, coming into the race off a 2 week break from a 1st up Group 1600m race. Although beaten 8 lengths he was the fastest between the 800m-400m mark and 3rd fastest between the 400-200m mark. He’s won a G1 at Longchamp over 2400m so expect him to improve remarkably as his 1st up performance was a conditioning run. Any rain is a bonus.

Chance To Dance Impressive winner 1st up against the ‘in form’ The United States at Moonee Valley 2 weeks ago. Will appreciate the rise to 2000m and did run 3rd albeit beaten 7 lengths to Free Eagle at Leopardstown in Ireland 5 starts ago giving that galloper 3kg. Maps well and has won 4 of 5 starts at 2000m.

Magic HurricaneLast start winner in the Listed Premiers Cup at Rosehill over 1800m when running down SIlverball (won since). His final 400m that day 22.52 last 200 11.52. Drawn barrier 5 he’s likely to settle closer to the lead. He’ll look the winner at some stage but yet to be convinced he has the class to win and the profile is against him.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Complacent Is the standout profile horse, the only negative I find is his wide gate but he proved last start he has the early tactical speed to put that out of play. I’d be comfortable backing him at anything > $3.

BACK – PLACE Gallante – $26 was bet in early markets. He will map closer than his 1st up run. It’s a big field but with few chances so taking anything > $10 is worth the risk.

 

Caulfield, Saturday 19 September 2015

Track

Good 3

Rail +9m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 15, Cloudy, 70% chance of showers, possible 1mm

Saturday 19th – Max 18, Partly Cloudy, light winds.

 

R7 How Now Stakes G3 SWP 4yo Mares+ 1200m

Speed Map:

How Now Stakes 2015

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 1 of past 5 winners have carried > 57.5 kg
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP Fav
  • 3 of past 5 winners 2nd or 3rd up
  • 3 of past 5 winners drawn > barrier 9

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Girl Guide – SP $6.50 55kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 4 wk freshen 1st Mares BM90 80k 1200m M Valley

2nd – A Time For Julia – SP $7.00 57kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd Cockram G3 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Shamal Wind – SP $6.50 56kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 4 wk freshen 4th Carlyon Stk Listed 1000m M Valley

 

2013 Rail +9m, Soft 6

1st – Catkins – SP $2.90 fav 58kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Let’s Elope G2 1400 Flemington

2nd – Hi Belle – SP $16 58kg BR 6 – 1st up (1 x T), 22 weeks 5th Sunline Stakes G2 1600m M Valley

3rd – Flash Of Doubt – SP $21 55kg BR 3 – 10th up, 3 weeks 7th Mares Hcp 80k 1000m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail + 9m, Good 4

1st – Detours – SP $8.5 55kg BR 10 – 1st up (2 x T), 15 weeks 5th James Carr Listed 1200m Canterbury

2nd – Classy Chloe – SP $8 55kg BR 9 –  1st up, 19 weeks 1st 3Y HCP 70k 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Mrs Onassis – SP $17 57kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Concorde Stks G3 1100m Warwick Farm

 

2011 – Sister Madly – SP $4 fav 56.5kg BR 5 – 1st up (1 x T), 20 wks 11th Galaxy G1 1100m Randwick

2010 – Valentine Miss – SP $5 54kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 5 weeks 7th Cockram Stakes G3 1200m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

HazardHuge effort 1st up in Cockram Stakes which profiles well for this race. Maps poorly, but biggest concern is 2nd up record 0 wins from 7 attempts. Can win but everything needs to fall its way, looks well under odds in early markets at $6.00

WawailUnbeaten 1st up, 3 from 3. Her latest effort at G1 level enormous beaten 2.4 lengths to Miracles Of Life. Gets tempo on and dream run in transit. Winner at G2 level over 1400m tells me she will be strong late. She’s only had 8 career starts and is still on an upward spiral.

GrianteConsistent mare who chased home Fell Swoop at her latest start giving him 2.5kg. She’s 4th up here and better suited against her own sex. Gets a dream run in transit and any rain helps her chances.

Girl GuideLacked fitness first up despite being beaten only 1.8 lengths in the Cockram Stakes. Won this race last year (hasn’t won since) off a similar preparation and maps well. I won’t be laying her.

Tycoon TaraGood return against Chautauqua 1st up in the McEwen when beaten 3.8 lengths. Drop back to mares grade suits, Luke Currie must push hard forward early and set her alight early to win.

VezalayPlenty of boom about this mare and she’s been solid at all three starts this preparation. Rail +9m helps her chances but I’m confident she’s a fresh horse and worried by the 7 day backup.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – E/W– Wawail – 58kgs only negative I can find about her. Gets the best run in transit just off the speed. Suggest backing her 1w x 2x Plc anything > $6.

LAY – WINVezalayProfile’s ok for the race but looks under the odds at $4, I’m comfortable laying her up to $6.