The Betfair Insider: Saturday September 12 Rosehill and Flemington

Posted: September 11, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Flemington, Saturday 12 September 2015

Track

Good 4

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 11th – 20, mostly sunny.

Saturday 12th – 21, partly cloudy.

 

R4 Danehill Stakes 1200m G2 3yo SW

Speed Map:

danehill stakes speedmap

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 2nd up (1100m 1st up run best lead up form)
  • 1 of past 5 winners has carried 58kg to win (2011 Sepoy)
  • 1 of past 5 winners a filly (2012 Snitzerland)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

 

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Rich Enuff – SP $6 55.5kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st McKenzie Stakes Listed 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Looks Like The Cat – SP $10 55kg BR 11 – 1st up, 14 weeks 3rd JJ Atkins G1 1600m Eagle Farm

3rd – Ghibellines – SP $31 57kg BR 10 – 1st up (1 Trial), 8th Golden Slipper G1 1200m Rosehill

 

2013 – Charlie Boy – SP $21 55kg BR 4 – 1st up (2 Trials), 16 weeks 7th Champagne Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

2012 – Snitzerland – SP $1.45 fav 54.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st San Domenico 1100m Rosehill

2011 – Sepoy – SP $1.14 fav 58kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Vain Stakes Listed 1100m Caulfield

2010 – Soul –  SP $3.60 fav 55kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd Vain Stakes Listed 1100m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Ready For Victory – Won over 1000m at his first ever start at Flemington. Smashed the clock that day last 600 33.02 400 22.08 200 11.44. Backed that performance up beaten only 1.8 lengths in the Golden Slipper. Huge performance 1st up in Vain Stakes which is the perfect profile for this race.

Black Vanquish – Visually impressive winner at his 2nd career start this track and trip, running OK time that day. Won his next start from off the canvas after being galloped on at Caulfield. Comes into this race 1st up off an impressive jump out.

Kinglike – His first ever start was enormous when 3w the entire, beaten only 1.25 lengths to Bassett at Caulfield over 1100m. At his next start winning with ease at Moonee Valley over 1200m. If he’s improved since his break he can be in the finish.

Boston Light – Thrown in the deep end on debut beaten 3.95 lengths 5th in the McKenzie Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Stable hold the colt in high regard so wouldn’t rule out a better finish here with clear running.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Ready For Victoryprofile standout coming into the race 2nd up through the Vain Stakes. Proven in Sydney last preparation and suited up the straight.

 

R7 Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m G1 WFA

Speed Map:

makybe diva stakes speedmap

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners 2nd up ( 2011 – 1st up Littorio & 2012 – 3rd up Southern Speed)
  • 1 of past 5 winners SP fav (2014 Dissident)
  • 4 of past 5 winners drawn no wider than barrier 9

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail

1st – Dissident – SP $2.70 fav 58.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Fawkner – SP $10 59kg BR 3 – 1st up, 25 weeks 7th William Reid G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Puissance De Lune – SP $7 59kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Memsie Stakes G1 1400 Caulfield

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Foreteller – SP $15 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up,  2 weeks 8th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

2nd – Puissance De Lune – SP $2.35 fav 59 kg BR 5 – 2nd up,  3 weeks Lawrence Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Moudre – SP $91 59kg BR 6 – 1st up (2x Trials), 39 weeks 8th Queen Elizabeth G3 2600m Flemington

 

2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Southern Speed – SP $4.20 57kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Penny Edition Listed 1400m Morphettville

2nd – Manighar – SP $3.30 fav BR 5 – 1st up, 16 weeks 3rd Doomben Cup G1 2000m Doomben

3rd – Moudre – SP $51 59kg BR 10 – 1st up (2 trials), 74 weeks 9th Australian Cup G1 2000m Flemington

 

2011 – Littorio – SP $41 59kg BR 14 – 1st up, 71 weeks 9th Sydney Cup G1 3200m Randwick

2010 – Shocking –  SP $18 59kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 7th Liston Stakes (Lawrence) G2 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Happy Trails – Fits the profile and races well 3rd up. His 2nd up performance, 12th in Memsie not a true reflection of how well horse is going, was untested to line running final 400 23.54 200 11.64. This is his best chance of winning a G1 this spring.

Boban – Tough win 1st up in Memsie aided by Glynn Schofield 10/10 ride, gets similar conditions here with inside draw. Has won 3 from 7 at 1600m all at G1 level, winning the G1 Emirates this track and distance in 2013. Beaten only 2.6 lengths in this race last year. Deeper race this year but trainer keeps him fresher going in 2nd up this time.

Weary – Worked hardest 1000m to 400m 2nd up in Memsie, rallied in his last 200m 11.62 3rd fastest home that split. Despite not winning beyond 1600m have no issue with him getting trip. MUST track Hi World into race and get cover to win. Any rain a ++

Entirely Platinum – Good performance 1st up when possibly a run short. Has won 3 of 5 starts 2nd up so expecting huge improvement this time out.  Drawn 15 but should work across easily enough. Won’t be laying him at price $12 early, but it’s definitely D-day for him or back to handicaps?

Volkstok’n’barrel – Did enough 1st up (not clearest passage) to indicate he’s on target for the Cox Plate. Still think he’s a run or two away from his best. He lacks gate speed and barrier 16 isn’t ideal. Underwood Stakes and Caulfield stakes is around the time to be backing him.

Alpine Eagle – Strong performance 1st up in the Penny Edition Stakes following a similar pattern to 2012 Winner, Southern Speed (Although she was 2nd up). His 2nd placing to Wandjina in the Australian Guineas this track and distance (Last 600 32.76 400 21.88 200 11.34) tells me he’s good enough. Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup bound? Either way $7-8 early is too short here.

Rising Romance – Fits the profile coming into this 2nd up. Stunning performance first up in the Memsie when a victim of circumstances (and possible pilot error)? Worked into the race 600m out but held up 300-200m. Has tactical speed, new jockey (Damien Lane) and barrier 1 all in her favour. Only query is if she’s now looking for longer.

Gust Of WindSydney mare beaten only 4.1 lengths in the Warwick Stakes 3 weeks ago, home last 400 22.76 200 11.56. Not sure how far she can go this preparation but 80/1 was bet early and if there’s a complete blowout it’s her. Blake Shinn an interesting booking.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Rising Romance E/W – $13 in early markets looks over the odds for a class mare that will get every favour in running.

 

Rosehill, Saturday 12 September 2015

Track

Good 4

Rail +2m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 11th – 22, Sunny with light winds.

Saturday 12th – 25, Sunny with light winds.

 

R6 Golden Rose 1400 G1 3yo SW

Speed Map:

golden rose speed map

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through The Run To The Rose
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won start prior (Hallowed Crown, Manawanui & Toorak Toff)
  • 0 of the past 5 winners have been SP favs (2011 Smart Missile 2nd $2.10)

 

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

 

2014 – Rail True, Good 4

1st – Hallowed Crown – SP $6.50 56.5kg BR 14 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Run To The Rose  G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Scissor Kick – SP $13 56.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Up & Coming G3 1300m Randwick

3rd – Shooting To Win – SP $17 56.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 1 week 2nd Ming Dynasty G3 1400m Randwick

 

2013 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Zoustar – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 16 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Dissident – SP $9 56.5kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

3rd – Bull Point – SP $31 56.5kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 3Y BM 75 1400m Rosehill

 

2012 – Rail +2m, Good 3

1st – Epaulette  – SP $13 56.5kg BR 13 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Albrecht – SP $10 56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st UP & Coming G3 1200m Warwick Farm

3rd – Ashokan – SP $51 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

 

2011 – Manawanui – SP $7.00 56.5 kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Up & Coming G3 1200 Warwick Farm

2010 – Toorak Toff –  SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Vain Stakes Listed 1100m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Press Statement – Carried 60kgs 1st up beaten 1.3 lengths to Exosphere in the Run To The Rose. He meets him 1kg better at the weights this time and knowing Chris Waller will improve into this. Maps slightly better than Exosphere and is proven at 1400m. Hard to beat.

Exosphere – Dominant win 1st up when looked slightly big in condition in the mounting yard and betting reflected that. His last 600 33.88 400 22.32 200 11.26. If he’s improved at all only bad luck will beat him despite meeting Press Statement 1kg worse at the weights.

Shards – Not quite as strong as The Run To The Rose profile but recent winners of the UP & Coming have performed strongly in this (2011 Manawanui 1st, 2012 Albrecht 2nd & 2014 Scissor Kick 2nd). Had all the favours 1st up but also finished strongly last 400 33.68 200 11.32 (fastest on the day). Fits the Caulfield Guineas profile very strongly and worry he’s been set for that instead.

Speak Fondly – On the 7 day back up from her Furious Stakes win, home her final 400 23.40 200 11.88.  Not the fastest filly out of the barriers but gains momentum like a runaway train. Last filly to win the Golden Rose – Forensics 2008 (off a 2 week break). Makes her on luck but feel the fresher colts will overpower her late.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Exosphere >$3. He doesn’t map well but given it’s only a small field I expect pressure to be applied early and the race to open up for him.

 

Stay tuned to @Betfair_Aus this Monday as I review the major races from the weekend.

 

Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au