The Betfair Insider: Saturday August 29 Caulfield and Rosehill Race Profiling

Posted: August 28, 2015

BettingBetter_W

Caulfield, Saturday 29 August 2015

Track – Soft 6  Rail +6m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 28th – Max 13. Partly cloudy. 70% chance of rain (1-2mm)

Saturday 29th – Max 13. Mostly cloudy. 80% chance of rain (2-6mm)

R4 H.D.F McNeil Stakes 1200m G3 3yo SWP

Speed Map: 

HDF McNeil 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners were 2nd up into the race (2 weeks)
  • 3 of past 5 winners were Colts or Geldings
  • 4 of past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd at their last start
  • Only 1 of past 5 winners was a favourite (Golden Archer $3.90)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

2014 – Chivalry – SP $7.50, 56kg BR 11 – 1st up (No Trials), 6 wk Freshen  1st 2yo SWP 1000m MV

2013 – Fast ‘N’ Rocking – SP $4.00, 56kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Vain Stakes G3 1100m Caulfield

2012 – Lady Of Harrods – SP $26, 54kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 10th Quezette G3 1100m Caulfield

2011 – Golden Archer – SP $3.90 Fav, 57.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Vain Stakes G3 1100m Caulfield

2010 – Sistine Angel – SP $15, 53kg BR 7 – 1st up (No Trials), 16 weeks 2nd 2yo Hcp 70k 1410m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Prince Of BrooklynSmart colt winning well on debut running his last 400 in 22.80 to win comfortably at Morphettville. At his next start leading all the way to win $100k race at Swan Hill on a soft 6, form through that race OK. Suited by tempo here and drawn well, will take a sit on the leaders back and fits the profile.

Gold SymphonyWon the Vain Stakes after being 3w without cover which is a proven form line to win this, his last 600 33.83 400 22.36 L200 11.24. Drawn barrier two, likely to stalk Prince Of Brooklyn. Fits profile 2nd up, 2 week profile.

Ready For VictoryAlmost pinched the Golden Slipper at his second career start when running off the track beaten only 1.8 lengths. Will need luck given racing pattern and maps the poorest of the main chances. On raw ability can win but is likely to have bigger targets deeper into spring.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Prince Of Brooklyn currently $3.40 on offer I expect him to start closer to $2.50-$2.60. He will look the winner 100m from home and will trade odds in play opening up a LAYING BACK opportunity.

BACK – Gold Symphony currently $9.50 available and will be very strong late. By backing him as our second play in the race we are effectively laying the remaining 9 runners in the field of 11. I’m confident this is the best ‘risk v reward’ approach to maximising a return on the race.

 

R8 NZ Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m G1 WFA

Speed Map: 

memsie map 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners have won 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced in Strong G1 events at their last start
  • 1400m specialists suited or STAR WFA Champions

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

2014 Rail +6m Good 3

1st Dissident – SP $12, 58.5kg BR 5 – 1st up (2 Trials), 14 weeks 12th Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

2nd Sweet Idea – SP $8, 56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Missile G2 1200m Randwick

3rd Puissance De Lune – SP $8 59kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Lawrence Stks G2 1400 Caulfield

 

2013 Rail +6m Soft 5

1st Atlantic Jewel – SP $2.20 Fav, 57kg BR 7 – 1st up (No Trials), 70 weeks 1st All Aged G1 1400m Rand.

2nd Ferlax – SP $21, 58.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Aurie’s Star G3 1200m Flemington

3rd Super Cool – SP $51, 59kg BR 7 – 1st up (No Trials), 42 weeks 9th Melb. Cup G1 3200m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +6m Good 4

1st Sincero – SP $3.60, 59kg BR 4 – 1st up (2 Trials), 16 weeks 4th Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

2nd Happy Trails – SP $13, 59kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Spring Stakes G3 1200m Morphettville

3rd Second Effort – SP $19, 59kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Lawrence Stks G2 1400m Caulfield

 

2011 Rail +7m Good 3

King’s Rose – SP $7.50, 56.5kg BR 11 – 1st up (No Trials), 23 wks 7th NZ Oaks G2 1400m Trentham

 

2010 Rail +10m Soft 7

So You Think – SP $6.50, 58.5kg BR 9 – 1st up (No Trials), 42 weeks 2nd Emirates G1 1600m Flemington

 

Major Players:

BobanDominant in 2 starts over the Brisbane Winter winning Doomben 10,000 at WFA. Gave Srikandi 5kg advantage in the Stradbroke beaten only 1.8lengths. Impressive trial leading into the Memsie and this is his Grand Final. If he can settle more forward than his usual pattern it could be game over very early, barrier 5 a big advantage.

Temple Of Boom– Not suited under WFA conditions here meeting Boban 2.5kg worse off from the Stradbroke. He does follow the same preparation as last year’s runner up Sweet Idea and maps perfectly. If they walk in front he’ll be there for a very long way.

Entirely PlatinumFits the profile and has a strong 1st up 1400m record, in autumn only Horse of the Year Dissident beat him home. Suspect stable will keep him to shorter distances this preparation. Needs to run to his best to win, but I won’t be laying him.

Volkstok’n’barrel – Fits profile as high rating WFA style galloper 1st up. Will be most competitive over 1600m–2000m this spring with the Cox Plate his major target. Had 7 starts last preparation winning 4 of them. Tough, genuine racehorse, drawn awkwardly but has Blake Shinn aboard which is a big plus.

MagicoolResidual fitness an advantage and suspect Kavanagh will have him forward enough to win this. Class a big? Better suited under handicap conditions but a knockout at odds.   

Hi WorldLightly raced but very progressive galloper with form around Kermadec early in his career. Maps perfectly and suited by sting out of the track. Needs a big spike in ratings to be in the finish here and couldn’t entertain him until he raced under handicap conditions.

Rising Romance – Class Mare who ran a bold race in the Caulfield Cup last spring. Hayes & Dabernig have improved most ‘new’ horses to their yard. Looks very short in early markets with $9-$11 on offer. I’m confident she’s a better 2000m horse and suspect she will drift heavily.

Stratum Star – Has drawn ok in barrier 8 and form around Wandjina & Kermadec in the Australian Guineas puts him in contention here. His last 600 33.65 400 22.33 200 11.01 1st up in the Regal Roller was impressive and a win here wouldn’t shock. Looks hard to beat under handicap conditions over 1400-1600m.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Boban – currently $5 on offer which looks a fair price, I suspect he trades higher ‘In Play’ for less volume but could prove very lucrative, as his usual pattern is to race back. Only traffic or a track rating of slow 6 or worse will beat him. He is the profile standout.

LAY – 3 Horses to PLACE at $5 or less. Rising Romance, Weary & Charmed Harmony

 

Futures – ** Volkstok’n’barrel is likely to shorten from $26 to win the Cox Plate opening up a LAYING BACK opportunity if you back him before the Memsie tomorrow.

Rosehill Gardens, Saturday 29 August 2015

Track – Soft 7 Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 28th – Max 20. Becoming cloudy.

Saturday 29th – Max 19. Partly cloudy.

The Run To The Rose 1200m G2 3yo SWP

Speed Map: 

Run To Rose 2015

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners undefeated colts
  • 5 of past 5 winners all last start winners ranging 1100m-1600m
  • 3 of past 5 winners SP fav (PIERRO, SMART MISSILE, SQUAMOSA)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

2014 – Hallowed Crown – SP $7, 58kg BR 6 – 1st up (2 Trials), 16 wks 1st Kindergarten G3 1100m Randwick

2013 – Va Pensiero – SP $31, 58kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st San Domenico G3 1100m Rosehill  

2012 – Pierro – SP $1.55 Fav, 60kg BR 4 – 1st up (No Trials), 18 weeks 1st Champagne G1 1600m Randwick

2011 – Smart Missile – SP $1.70 Fav, 57.5kg BR 7 – 1st up (1 Trial), 20 weeks 1st Todman G2 1200m Rosehill

2010 – Squamosa – SP  $2.60 Fav, 56.5kg  BR 9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st 2yo Hcp 70k 1400m Randwick

 

Major Players:

Press StatementOnly undefeated colt to come to the race and has won impressively at all 3 career starts with tactical speed and a strong turn of foot. Has 60kg and drawn wide but is regarded as the better of the Waller pair in terms of raw ability.

ExosphereWas highly fancied second favourite in the Golden Slipper with an SP of $4.80. That was after a 4 length romp in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes over 1200m. His 17.9 length loss in the Slipper was put down to ‘Cardiac Arrhythmia’. Appeared to out trial Press Statement recently which suggests he’s back to his best.

JaponismeHas won all 4 starts this preparation the last 3 at 1100m on Heavy, Soft and Good surfaces. Obvious fitness edge and drawn barrier 1. Tye Angland has opted to ride Press Statement. His San Domenico sectionals (Last 600 33.20 400 22.00 200 11.40) put him very close here with weight off the fresh colts. What’s left in the tank?

Betting Activity:

BACK – Press Statement – the current price of $5.00-$6.00 looks to be value. Although this is not his target (Golden Rose) and Waller trains his horses to the minute his residual fitness will carry him along way here. He could be the next big star of Australian racing.

 

Stay tuned to @Betfair_Aus this Monday as I review the major races from the weekend.

 

Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au