The Betfair Insider: Saturday 28 November 2015 – Doomben & Rosehill

Posted: November 27, 2015 at 9:24 am

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Doomben, Saturday 28 November 2015

 

Track

Good 3

Rail +4m

Weather Forecast – www.bom.gov.au

Friday 27th – Max 31, Possible shower

Saturday 28th – Max 27, Shower or two

 

R7 George Moore Stakes G3 1200m

 

Speed map:

George Moore Stakes

 

2014 Rail True, Soft 5 

1st –  Big Money – SP$4.20 57.5kg BR4 – 3rd up, 5 weeks, 9th Group 2 Linlithgow Stakes 1200m Flemington

2nd – Someday – SP $7 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Listed Keith Noud 1200m Doomben

3rd – Cape Kidnappers – SP $4.80 58kg BR10 – 1st up, 24 weeks, 2nd Group 3 Healey Stakes 1200m Eagle Farm

 

2013 Rail out 4m, Good 3

1st Lucky Hussler – SP $9 54kg BR6 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 5th Listed Tatts Mile 1600m Doomben

2nd – Morning Captain – SP$5.50 57kg BR7 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Listed Keith Noud 1200m Eagle Farm

3rd – Startsmeup – SP$17 57kg BR9 – 5th up, 8 weeks, 9th Listed Weekend Hussler Stakes 1400m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail out 5.5m, Good 3

 1st – Startsmeup – SP$6.50 57.5kg BR8 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 13th Group 2 Warwick Stakes 1400m Warwick Farm

2nd – Phelan Ready – SP$5 59kg BR4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Listed Keith Noud 1200m Eagle Farm

3rd – Morning Captain – SP$8 54.5kg BR9 – 5th up, 5 weeks, 4th Quality Hcp 1400m Eagle Farm

 

2011 – Adebisi – SP$18 53kg BR3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM90 1000m Eagle Farm

2010 – Not held

 

Major players

 

Temple Of Boom Freshened since his run in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, where he was found to have pulled up with respiratory issues according to the stewards report. He boats an impressive fresh record (13:4-3-0) but has amazingly never won at Doomben (12:0-2-3). No public barrier trials to gauge his current form but no doubting his class in this field. The last time he dropped back to Group 3 level, he finished second to Chautauqau in the Bobby Lewis and was beaten only 2.5 lengths despite carrying 5.5kg more.
Fontelina Having only his third run for Tony Gollan after previously being prepared by Anthony Cummings. His effort first-up at Randwick behind Dothraki in the Listed Lightning Quality was solid enough for this and there were excuses last start on a difficult track at Flemington behind Éclair Choice in the Group 2 1200m on Derby Day. Inside draws looks a big positive considering how the track has played at Doomben in recent weeks.

Didntcostalot Speedy customer with a brilliant record at Doomben (5:3-1-1) since joining Tony Gollan’s stable. Drawn to once again roll forward from barrier five but taking a big leap in grade, considering last start was only an open handicap. Looks to be sufficient pressure in the early stages and believe this horse is well under his true winning odds.

Miss Cover Girl – Freshened since eye-catching run in Sydney when close third to Nayeli and Peace Force in Group 3 Nivison at Randwick over 1200m. Tuned up for this with nice barrier trial win at Deagon and well suited on minimum weight of 54kg. Draw makes her task a little awkward but if leaders go too fast, she will be storming home at the finish.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Didntcostalot – Has looked impressive since joining Gollan stable but much too short at around $5.50 in this company. Happy to take it on.

BACK- E/W- Fontelina – Drawn to get a sweet run and complete forgive last start in much stronger race. Already attracting support and think it will be closer to $5 on jump time.

 

 

Rosehill Gardens, Saturday 28 November 15

 

Track

Good 3

Rail true

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 27th – Max 23, Partly cloudy

Saturday 28th – Max 24, Possible shower

 

R8 Festival Stakes 1500m

 

Speed Map:

Festival Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

 

  • 1 of past 5 winners recorded win at previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners SP > $10
  • 5 of past 5 winners carried < 55.5kg
  • 5 of past 5 winners had raced at least twice for the preparation

 

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

 

2014 – Rail out 6m, Good 3

1st – I’m Imposing – SP$19 55.5kg BR6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 14th Group 1 Emirates Stakes 1600m Flemington

2nd – Estonian Princess – SP$8 54kg BR1 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 5th Group 3 Summoned Stakes 1500m Sandown

3rd – Strawberry Boy – SP$7 57.5kg B9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Listed Ladies Day Cup 1400m Hawkesbury

 

2013 – Rail out 6m, Soft 5

1st – White Sage – SP$3 54kg BR14 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM80 1350m Rosehill

2nd – Terravista – SP$5 54kg BR1 – 4th up, 1 week, 1st BM85 1400m Kensington

3rd – Alma’s Fury – SP$19 58.5kg BR2 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 5th open handicap 1350m Rosehill

 

2012 – Rail out 4m, Good 3

1st – Malavio – SP$10 55kg BR9 – 5th up, 4 weeks, 4th Group 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m

2nd – Monton – SP$13 59kg BR8 – 5th up, 8 weeks, 6th Group 1 Epsom Handicap 1600m Randwick

3rd – Galah – SP$5 54kg BR3 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 2nd 0-95 Flemington 1600m

 

2011 – Monton – SP$15 55.5kg BR1 – 4th up, 6 weeks, 5th open handicap Rosehill 1350m

2010 – Dysphonia – SP$16 53kg BR5 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd open handicap Rosehill 1400m

 

Major players:

I’m Imposing Won this race last year narrowly with 55.5kg, therefore it is going to be extremely hard to go back-to-back now carrying 59.5kg. His last start behind Complacent and Hauraki was credible at WFA and his stats at Rosehill over 1500m (8:1-2-3) are encouraging.

It’s Somewhat Freshened after only two runs in the spring to be aimed towards Sydney summer races including Villiers Stakes. Showed his class in the autumn by winning the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup first-up before a credible run at WFA in the Group 1 George Ryder. He found the line in good style in a barrier trial on November 9 to suggest he is in nice form. His weight of 59kg is definitely a concern considering the recent history of this race.

Ninth Legion Racing consistently of late but seems to be struggling to get a result, likely due to the weights he is carrying. Faces that problem again here with 59kg but is suited to an inside draw. His run first-up in the Theo Marks Stakes behind Winx, carrying 2.5kg more, was encouraging and it wouldn’t surprise if he ran a place at decent odds.

Frespanol Looked set for victory last start and only denied by an amazing finishing burst of Zanbagh. Defeated by half a length on that occasion and now is favoured by a 2kg swing on John Thompson’s mare. Rising in distance looks a benefit and the form around his previous win over Rock Sturdy and Casino Dancer stood up with their subsequent runs during the Flemington carnival.

Zanbagh Surprised many with a brilliant win on rain affected ground over 1350m first-up at Rosehill. Her closing sectionals for the last 400m (23.04) and 200m (11.80) were clearly the fastest of any horse competing on the heavy 9 surface that day. She meets Frespanol 2kg worse from her previous run but should be improved by the rise in distance. The query will be whether she can repeat the brilliance and adapt to the dry track this week.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – It’s Somewhat – Keen to take him on as believe he will be a touch vulnerable fresh with the 59kg and then improve second-up in the Villiers. $5 seems short in early betting, looks closer to an $9 chance.

BACK – E/W – Zanbagh – Hard to comprehend why she is such large odds compared to Frespanol. John Thompson looks to have her back to best.