The Betfair Insider: Sandown, Saturday 14 November 2015

Posted: November 13, 2015 at 9:13 am

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Sandown, Saturday 14 November 2015

 

Track

Good 3

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Saturday 14th – Max 19, Partly Cloudy. 30% chance of rain 0 to 0.4mm

 

R3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes G3 1300m

Speed Map:

Kevin Heffernan Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 1 of past 4 winners SP favourites
  • 1 of past 4 winners 4th up in their preparation
  • 2 of past 4 winners raced on a 1 week back up
  • 1 of past 4 winner have been mares

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fast ‘n’ Rocking – SP $6 59kg BR 4 – 5th up, 1 week 3rd 4UP HCP 1400m Flemington

2nd – Generalife – SP $2.60 fav 59kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks Yellowglen Stakes G3 1400m Flemington 

3rd – Flamberge – SP $8 59kg BR 9 – 6th up, 1 week 4th Dilmah Stakes Listed 1000m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Lankan Rupee – SP $15 58.5 kg BR 4 – 4th up, 1 week 1st Dilmah Stakes Listed 1000m Flemington

2nd – Hot Snitzel – SP $10 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 10th Yellowglen Stakes G3 1400m Flemington

3rd – Famous Seamus – SP $7.50 58.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 5 weeks 3rd Premiere G2 1200m Randwick

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Mid Summer Music – SP $4 fav 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Herald Sun G3 1400m Flemington

2nd – Hot Snitzel – SP $5.50 59kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th MSS Security Listed 1200m Flemington

3rd – Unpretentious – SP $4.60 59kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st MSS Security Listed 1200m Flemington

 

2011 – Soul – SP $14 59kg BR 8 – 6th up, Freshened 4 weeks 3rd 100k HCP 1200m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Smokin Joey – Comes here 1st up off a midweek trial at Cranbourne. No wow factor in his trial but is well suited under WFA conditions at Group 3 level. He’ll get well back off his wide alley and there looks to be enough speed in the race to give him a chance to win. $5-6 in early markets looks half of what his right price should be.

Generalife – Looks a standout. Huge 1st up performance in the G2 Premiere Stakes beaten 2 lengths by Terravista. Was 28 days between runs 2nd up in the G2 over 1200m at Flemington on Derby Day defeated by 1.35 lengths to Éclair Choice. He was held up between the 300m-100m points and still managed to run his final 400 in 22.58 200 11.50. Delectation had a similar run and won the G1 Darley Classic. At WFA level 3rd up last preparation he ran Boban to a length in the Doomben 10,000 after a torrid run in transit. Maps to get the perfect run in transit and I can’t find a negative.

Under The Louvre – Comes from same race as Generalife finishing 6th beaten 2.1 lengths without much luck. He meets Generalife 0.5kgs worse at the weights and is now 6th up here without a freshen up. His grand final day has lone gone and despite racing well he’s under the odds for me at $3.20 in early markets.

Java – Has been racing well in lower company but is up against it rising to Group 3 level under WFA conditions. Has drawn positively in barrier five and will sit outside Gracious Prospect to lead. Although he’s undefeated here I suspect he’ll be annoyed enough up front to set it up for the older and faster closers.  Would need a leader bias track to be a genuine winning chance.

In Style – Group 1 winning mare in the Railway Stakes 1200m at Trentham in early January. Has only raced twice since then and presumed she suffered an injury in or shortly after the G1 Telegraph a fortnight after her G1 win. First up in Australia she missed the start by 4 lengths in a complete forgive run. Mid race data from that race was strong from the 1000m-200m mark. She knocked up badly in the worst part of the track to run home her final 200m 10th fastest in 12.04. Has drawn barrier 1 and will get the right race shape to figure but still question her class.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Generalife – Has been $4 into $3.50 in early markets. I’d back him down to $3 heavily.

 

R5 Zipping Classic G2 2400m

Speed Map:

zipping classic

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been Horses or Geldings
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been on less than a 2 week back up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Au Revoir – SP $4.60 59kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 8th Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington

2nd – Epingle – SP $11 57kg BR 8 – 4th up, 3 weeks 4th MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Prince Of Penzance – SP $3.30 fav 59kg BR 3 – 7th up, 1 week Queen Eliz Stakes G3 2600m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Sertorius – SP $3.70 fav 59kg BR 1 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Queen Elizabeth Stakes G3 2600m Flemington

2nd – Epingle – SP $12 57kg BR 7 – 4th up, 1 week 4th Momentum Energy Stakes G2 2000m Flemington

3rd – Queenstown – SP $5.50 56kg BR 8 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Momentum Energy Stakes G2 2000m Flemington

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Tanby – SP $7.50 59kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 3rd Queen Elizabeth Stakes G3 2600m Flemington

2nd – Exceptionally – SP $7.50 57kg BR 8 – 6th up, 2 week 3rd Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington   

3rd – Precendence – SP $9 59kg BR 3 – 7th up, 1 week 9th Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington

 

2011 – Americain – SP $1.55 fav 59kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington

2010 – Zipping – SP $2 fav 59kg BR 1 – 5th up, 1 week 4th Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Dandino – Last start winner of the G2 Queens Cup 2600m (formerly Queen Elizabeth) but comes to this race 7th up which is against the profile. His record at 2400m is strong and WFA conditions suit. Is well found in the market at $3.20 and query the level of improvement left in him despite strong closing sectionals in the Queens Cup.

Who Shot Thebarman – Unlucky not to finish closer in the G1 Melbourne Cup 3200m after suffering interference close to the 200m mark, beaten only 4 lengths with OK closing splits. His best performances are over 2400m, races best on a Good rated surface and can sprint of fast or slow tempo. James McDonald is riding as good as anyone and he profiles well for the race.

Tall Ship – Progressive galloper yet to reach his full potential. Has looked a race behind throughout this preparation and his performance off a slow tempo last start was solid. Over the 1800m they went nine lengths below benchmark to the 600m mark and ran the last 600m 10 lengths above. He didn’t have the clearest passage at the top of the straight but managed to run his last 600 in 33.46 400 22.40 200 11.32. The rise to 2400m suits as he’s 2 starts for 2 wins albeit in weaker company. He’s likely to box seat behind the leaders and this looks to be his grand final.

Rising Romance – Class mare that’s run well at every start this preparation with the exception of the G1 Caulfield Cup. She bounced back a fortnight later to run well in the G1 Mackinnon 2000m beaten 0.5 of a length to Gailo Chop. She’ll sit outside Don Doremo in running and prove very hard to hold out. I’ve marked her clear favourite.

Kirramosa – Looked a run short in the Bendigo Cup rising from 1600m to 2400m off a 25 day break. The Offer and Divan have since run well. Profile is against her, but is well suited to Sandown. She’s has the class to win but suspect she’ll drift from $10 in early markets.

Do You Remember – South African import who worked hard between the 1200m-400m mark 1st up over 1600m in the G3 Tesio Stakes beaten 4.5 lengths to Coronation Shallan at Moonee Valley. Managed to record the second fastest last 200m split on a track where few runners made ground. Has been 3 weeks since that run and would prefer her third up here. Placed at G1 level in the Durban July in South Africa over 2200m on a soft rated surface beaten 0.5 lengths by Heavy Metal.

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Dandino – Lay him up to $5. Zero interest in him at $3.20.

BACK – WIN – Tall ShipHave rated him shorter than $7.50 in early markets and looks to be the runner with the most improvement.

 

R7 Sandown Guineas G2 1600m

Speed Map:

Sandown Guineas

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 2 of past 5 winners have finished 1st or 2nd in Carbine Club Stakes in lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have started in barrier 7 or closer
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True Good 3

1st – Petrology – SP $14 57kg BR 12 – 5th up, 1 week 1st Connoisseur Listed 1800m Flemington

2nd – Stratum Star – SP $3.20 57kg BR 2 – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

3rd – Berisha – $SP 101 57kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st MDN-SW 1200m Kyneton

 

2013 Rail +6m Good 4

1st – Paximadia – SP $3.40 fav 56.5 kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

2nd – Equator – SP $4.80 56.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

3rd – Apollo’s Choices – SP $4 56.5kg BR – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Hilton Hotel Listed 1400m Flemington

 

2012 Rail True Good 3

1st – Tatra – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

2nd – Lunar Rise – SP $5 fav 56.5kg BR 14 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

3rd – Proverb – SP $7 56.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Carbine Club Stakes G3 1600m Flemington

 

2011 – So Swift – SP $19 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st MDN-SW 1300m Hamilton

2010 – Pressday – SP $4.60 fav 55.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 11th Coolmore G1 1200m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Dal Cielo – Unlucky not to win Guineas Prelude then ridden upside down in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. Freshened up and not totally disgraced in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes despite being in the better going. Gets a new rider which could improve him dramatically back out to his most suitable trip. Will have to work early but will give a big kick proving hard to run down. Well done early punters taking $19 which will be easy to lay back in play on The Exchange.

Mahuta – Another front runner that will be forced to work early from barrier 14. Got the job done again in the Carbine Club Stakes 1600m when headed but he loves a fight. Fits the profile as the winner but how much improvement is left in him? Expect $7 or $8 to be offered.

Marky Mark – His New Zealand form (G1 Sires Produce winner over 1400m) says he’s not far away from Dal Cielo. Hard to be enthused about his Cranbourne trial but that was on the 20th of October. Gets the right run in transit and is big odds if you dismiss his trial.

Demonstrate – Will box seat from barrier three with James McDonald the pilot yet again. Had a nice run in transit outside the leader but was soft through the line to my eye. He ran home second fastest in his final 400 23.60 200 12.00. He’s never been tried beyond 1400m and I think he’ll struggle to have the class to beat this field at the mile.

Patch Adams – Comes through the Carbine Club stakes off a fast finishing second beaten 0.3 lengths to Mahuta his last 400 23.20 200 11.92. He did that off a 29 day break and they didn’t go at breakneck speed. He looks well suited here with the 2 week break staying at the mile and tempo will suit. If Steven Arnold can overcome barrier 11 he’s a chance.

He’s Our Rokkii – Very similar profile to Patch Adams and was forced to work even harder in runner than that galloper in the Carbine Club Stakes. He’s drawn barrier 13 and has a better jockey on board in Damien Lane. Can make a case for him but $8 in early markets is poor value.

Ngarimu – Only has two starts to his name but handled the rise in class last week without a problem. He ran the second fastest last 200m in the Hilton Hotel Stakes 1400m and ran through the line much stronger than Demonstrate. Beaten 2.25 lengths to Palentino who looks to have serious ability. He maps perfectly for this race and will enjoy a faster tempo. Looks like a horse that will improve on the 7 day back up and getting out to a mile. I’ve marked him shorter than the $9+ that’s available on The Exchange.

Don’t Doubt Mamma – Dominant last winner of the Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m so no shock to see why Tony McEvoy has elected to take on the boys here in what appears to be a weak guineas. I’m not convinced she’ll handle the rise to 1600m but after watching her Edward Manifold failure I will concede that she had no clear running between the 600m-450m mark. She has the ability to sprint off a fast or slow tempo but I think her best winning distance will prove to be 1200-1400 long term. I couldn’t back her at $4.60-4.80 at 1600m with a genuine tempo likely.

Zafiki – Well bred filly who won her 1600m maiden at Cranbourne with authority. Unusual to be thrown in deep end here against the profile, but must respect Robert Smerdon. He trained the runner up to Don’t Doubt Mamma in the Lexus Hybrid Plate, a filly named Indarra. Robert’s record speaks for itself and he’d have a good handle on were this filly sits in the peaking order. Care.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – E/W – NGARIMUWill get a great run in transit and with natural improvement will be right in this. Well worth the risk at $9.50.

 

Good luck Backing and Laying!

The Betfair Insider

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

 

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