The Betfair Insider: Royal Randwick Saturday 22 August

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The Betfair Insider

Royal Randwick, Saturday 22 August 2015

Track

Rail +6m & Good 4 – Track will suit leaders and especially runner’s hard up against the rail.

 

Weather Forecast from www.BOM.gov.au

Friday 21 August – Top of 23, Partly Cloudy with light winds.

Saturday 22 August – Top of 25, 40% chance of showers in the late afternoon. Cloudy.

NB: Meeting has transferred 2010-2013 Warwick Farm, 2014 – 2015 Randwick

R1 Up & Coming Stakes 1300m

Speed map:

speedmap 2108 R1

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners 2nd or 3rd up, 1st up winner’s finished 1st or 2nd in past 2 starts
  • Manawanui ($2.25) only favourite to win out of past 5 winners Avg. price $8.53
  • Darley record in race 6 runners over past 5 years -2x 1st , 2 x 3rd, 1 x 4th , 1 x SCR
  • No winner in past 5 has won with top weight of 58kg (SEBRING SUN & VOILIER)

 

Previous Race Winners and lead up result:

 2014 – Scissor Kick – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Rosebud Listed 1200m Randwick

2013 – War – 2nd up, 3 weeks 6th 3yo MDNSW 1100m Canterbury

2012 – Albrecht – 2nd up, 3 weeks 3rd 3yo BM75 1200m Canterbury

2011 – Manawanui – 1st up (2x Trials), 12 weeks 1st 2yo Hcp 1250m Canterbury

2010 – Blackball – 1st up (1x Trial), 18 weeks 8th Sires Produce G1 1400m Randwick

Major Players:

Sebring Sun – Huge win 1st up giving weight to rivals. 2nd up win in Listed Rosebud equally impressive. Gets similar conditions here and obvious favourite. 58kg against him as is likely pattern off the speed.

Voilier – Meets Sebring Sun 2kg better off since last start defeat. Drawn barrier 2 and will get dream run behind Darley pair with Blake Shinn aboard.

Shards – Although 1st up, fits profile with a last start win over 1350m. James McDonald sticks over stablemate Inner Circle who appears to profile better for the race. Narrowly defeated by star Press Statement at his 2nd career start. Leader.

Inner Circle – Stable has had a boom on him since debut win. 1st up only OK given minimal pressure. Drops 2kg and Heavy to Good may or may not be of advantage.

Betting Activity:

BACK – Shards early at fixed of $5 is good value. He has the most upside of the two Darley runner’s and with James Mc Donald engaged he gets the nod slightly over his stablemate Inner Circle who has also shortened in early markets. Shards will be leading opening up a LAYING BACK opportunity, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t trade odds on in play. His final 100m is the only doubt I have in my mind given the horse is 1st up over 1300m.

Shards is worth a small bet in early GOLDEN ROSE markets at 50/1.

*2014 winner of the UP & Coming Scissor Kick ran 2nd in the Golden Rose at $13.

R4 Coolmore Silver Shadow 3yo Fillies 1200m

Speed map:

speedmap 2108 R4

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • Past 5 winners all 1st up winners
  • Strong G1 form in past spring is too advantage
  • 3 of past 5 winners SP favs. 2 were odds on favs (both won BMTM & Nechita)

Previous Race Winners and lead up result:

2014 – Bring Me The Maid – 1st up (2x Trails), 16 weeks 3rd Golden Slipper G1 1200m Rosehill

2013 – Thump – 1st up (1x Trial), 18 weeks 10th Sires Produce G1 1400m Randwick

2012 – Nechita – 1st up (1x Trial), 10 weeks 1st 2yo SWP 70k 1100m Warwick Farm

2011 – Pane In The Glass – 1st up (2x Trial), 14 weeks 2nd Champagne Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

2010 – Parables – 1st up (1x Trial), 15 weeks 3rd Keith McKay Listed 1200m Randwick

Major Players:

Speak Fondly – Blinkers on for the 1st time, drawn barrier 1, will lead. If there is clear bias (fence hot) this runner will haemorrhage in price. Despite not breaking the clock her win in the Magic Night was strong after crossing from barrier 11. She’s been in work a long time and will be ready despite conceding weight to the rest of the field.

Lake Geneva – 1st up winner in Hawkesbury maiden at her latest. Home that day last 600 33.32, 400 22.24 & final 200 11.36.  Maps perfectly behind the leader Speak Fondly with a 3kg swing since they last met in the Golden Slipper.

Betting Activity:

LAY – Kimberley Star who has opened $3.30 – $3.60. I expect her to drift heavily with $5 plus readily available. She’s won her last 3 starts against inferior opposition and despite being deeper in her preparation both of the major players listed above are fit enough to fight it out. I will be laying Kimberley Star E/W being a 6 horse field paying to 1st and 2nd places only.

R6 Warwick Stakes 1400m

Speed map:

speedmap 2108 R6

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 2nd up, 3 of 5 coming through G3 1200m sprint 1st up
  • Last 5 winner’s all Geldings
  • Star Mares runner up in 3 latest editions ( ROYAL DESCENT, STREAMA, SECRET ADMIRER)
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP Favourite ( Pinwheel 2011 & 2012)

 

Previous Race Winners and lead up result:

2014

1st  Tiger Tees – SP $5.50, 59kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Aurie’s Star Hcp G3 1200m Flemington

2nd   Royal Descent – SP $5.00, 57kg BR 2 – 1st up (2 Trials) 5th QE G1 2000m Randwick

3rd  Criterion – SP $9.0, 58.5kg BR 4 – 1st up (1 x Trial 5 wks), 14 wks 1st ATC Derby G1 2400m Rand

2013

1st Veyron – SP $21, 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 6 week freshen 5th NZ HCP 19k (64.5kg) 1400m Ruakaka

2nd Streama – SP $4.40, 57kg BR 5 – 6 week freshen (Bris Winter), 2nd Tatts Tiara G1 1400m Eagle Farm

3rd Rain Affair – SP $1.75 Fav, 59kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Missile Stakes G3 1200m Randwick

2012

1st Pinwheel – SP $4.40 Fav, 59kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Missile Stakes G3 1200 Warwick Farm

2nd Secret Admirer – SP $5.0, 57kg BR 6 – 1st up (2x Trials), 13 weeks 3rd QE G1 2000m Randwick

3rd Danleigh – SP $26, 59kg BR 5 – 1st up (2x Trials), 15 weeks 15th Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

2011 – Pinwheel – SP $2.70 Fav, 59kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Missile Stakes G3 1200m Randwick

2010 – Metal Bender – SP $15, 59kg BR 4 – 1st up (2 x Trials), 10 wks 1st Doomben Cup 2020m Doom

Major Players:

Pornichet – Has residual fitness advantage over other 1st up runner’s coming off a dominant Doomben Cup performance. In the early part of his preparation he raced very fresh which could happen again and barrier 10 is of slight concern from a map perspective.

Burbero – Fits the profile coming off a strong win in the Missile Stakes. Will settle closer this time and Zaratone burning up in front helps his chances. His autumn defeat of 2.6 lengths in the G1 WFA George Ryder against the likes of Real Impact & Criterion puts him in the frame here. Currently $9 but is an ‘unpopular’ runner so is likely to drift but is a strong chance.

Messene – Fits the profile being 2nd up from Missile Stakes. This time last year flopped 2nd up but has drawn barrier 1 and maps perfectly. Needs to find a few ratings points to win here. Won’t be laying him.

It’s Somewhat – Dominant winner of the Liverpool City cup at his first Australian start in the Autumn. Another that needs to go to a new level to win here and looks a likely Epsom Handicap type later in the spring. Look for 2nd or 3rd up.

Kermadec – Doncaster winner in the autumn and one of Australia’s brightest stars. Trainer has indicated that he’s forward enough to run a bold race. 1st up Randwick suits and has the most upside of any runner in the race. Profile suggests a place, wins he’s could be a freak!

Royal Descent – Runner up this race last year and Chris Waller has her the most forward of any of his gallopers in the race. Despite her class she hasn’t won since her 2013 ATC Oaks victory (10 lengths). Maps perfectly and ran 2nd in this race last year although that was on a rain affected surface.

First Seal – Maps perfectly & profiles well for the race. Most likely outcome Top 3 Finish. 1400m-1600m her sweet spot so making the big step to open class WFA isn’t beyond her. She runs well fresh but how forward is she?

Betting Activity:

LAY – First Seal who looks very short in early markets $2.70-2.90. My profile and ratings suggest she will drift heavily in betting. LAY her at anything $4 or less.

BACK – Royal Descent (E/W) $8 looks very fair odds given she’s placed 12 of her 25 starts. Her trainer Chris Waller has a strong record in the race and this looks to be the best chance for her to end her long run of outs. Hugh Bowman on is another big ++!

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

 

The Betfair Insider.

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of http://www.racingandsports.com.au/