The Betfair Insider Ratings: Pakenham, Thursday 21st April 2016

Posted: April 21, 2016

Betfair Insider

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Pakenham.

Pakenham Markets R1 – 8

Bet365 Maiden Plate | 2200m | 6:00pm

Helsingor is down from Sydney for the Chris Waller stable and while his form reads very moderate (as it does for all of these), he’s been running in considerably stronger races that leave him with dominate ratings.

Waller’s winning record bringing horses from Sydney to Victoria has been outstanding in recent months. Everything here adds up to Helsingor rightfully being a very short priced favourite.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
5. Helsingor $1.50
2. Oscar Dee $7.00
3. Wacky Doo $7.00
1. Bedroucho $23.00
4. McIndoe Flyer $23.00

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Berwick Ford Maiden Plate | 1200m | 6:30pm

This is a very tricky and competitive race between the top three with less than ¾ length separating them on ratings. Airlie Magic holds the edge thanks to a higher peak rating.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
3. Airlie Magic $2.60
5. Rising Hope $3.40
6. Vanilla Ice Cream $3.40
2. Geante Rouge $34.00
1. De Valor $101.00
4. Mrs Yargi $201.00

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Cool Breeze Maiden Plate | 1200m | 7:00pm

Plus Effronte comes off a very solid debut run where not all that well suited sitting a few lengths off a very slow pace. She ran on well for a close second in that race, leaving her with a clearly superior rating to her opposition who have all had multiple career runs.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
7. Plus Effronte $1.75
5. Maggie Manhattan $6.00
4. From St Andrews $7.00
2. Man Ban $11.00
1. I Am Wanted $34.00
3. Myall Glen $251.00

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Duffy & Simon Maiden Plate | 1600m | 7:30pm

Revelation has had five career starts so far and four of them have returned ratings that present a big gap over the rest of this field, including her last start which was a new career peak. With the likelihood off an easy lead, it seems that only an unexpected poor run will get her beaten here.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
6. Revelation $1.20
2. Swashbuckler $9.00
4. The Contortionist $31.00
7. Racing Carmen $101.00
5. Dream Of Me $151.00
3. Tarago Prospector $251.00
1. Misty Night $351.00

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Harcourts South East BM70 | 1200m | 8:00pm

Alittlebitofclass comes off a narrow win in an above average rating BM64 race at Cranbourne last start and looks to get the right conditions here to produce a similar performance.

Bishops Castle was plain first up at Moonee Valley but has a number of past ratings that would win this race, gets the blinkers back on and should lead easily. He’s well set up to make a sharp improvement.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
6. A Littlebitofclass $3.50
2. Bishops Castle $3.80
5. Anare $5.00
4. Heza Dude $7.00
1. Jungle Edge $11.00
3. Zenithal $51.00

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Brian Paynter MP BM64 | 1400m | 8:30pm

This is a very competitive race and it wouldn’t surprise if any of the top six won. Moonlight Hussler has been very consistent in his last two with ratings that can win this race and he looks likely to get a good run up near the lead.

Mai Shiny Choice is lightly raced and comes off a last start win over this trip with a competitive rating. Any improvement at all puts him right in the mix.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
2. More Than Most $3.80
3. Praecereus $4.60
4. Moonlight Hussler $5.50
7. Mai Shiny Choice $7.00
5. Mr Churchill $12.00
8. Groote Eylandt $12.00
1. Reticent $101.00
6. Panda Eyes $101.00
10. Taraji $101.00

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K Blackwood Foundation BM64 | 1600m | 9:00pm

There’s virtually nothing separating the top three in this. Roman Fizz is dropping back from harder races and has a string of ratings right up to winning this. Micondesa is lightly raced with solid ratings and looks likely to appreciate the step up from 1300m to 1600m.

Momentary was moderate two runs ago over 2080m, but both runs either side of that in this distance range have returned ratings right up to winning this. He just needs a good ride / luck from a likely off pace position on the fence.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
5. Roman Fizz $4.00
9. Micondesa $4.00
1. Momentary $4.40
6. Skeletons $11.00
7. Florence $15.00
4. Defence Witness $17.00
8. Ionlythinkofyou $17.00
11. Guadalcanal $126.00

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Delplant Cival MB64 | 1000m | 9:30pm

Neuroblast is first up here with two wins from three career starts, the latest an easy victory at Gunbower by 2.3 lengths. He was strong on the clock that day and the subsequent ratings out of that race as a form line have stacked up to expectations, providing confidence around the merit in this win.

A recent Tatura trial win looks to have him primed for this first up run and over 1000m from an inside draw he looks to be very hard to catch.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
3. Neuroblast $2.80
4. Tapestry Vision $6.50
1. Private Party $7.00
10. Down The Hatch $8.00
6. Bizarre $9.00
9. Stride Out $18.00
11. Shimoda $26.00
5. Man With The Plan $9.00
12. Charmed $151.00

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