The Betfair Insider Ratings: Pakenham, Thursday 19th May 2016

Posted: May 19, 2016

Betfair Insider

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Pakenham.

Pakenham Markets R1 – 8

R1 Brian Clough Mazda Maiden Plate | 1200m 6:00pm

Two first starters at single figures odds (Snitson, Quarck) present uncertainty here. That aside, Isabeli was a rock solid one-length second in an above average Maiden at Mornington two starts ago, before being galloped on at Warrnambool last start when right in the market. Her Mornington run is likely to be good enough to win here, in what are usually lower rated Maidens.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
6. Isabeli $1.80
9. Snitzson $6.00
7. Sunshine Excel $8.00
3. Quarck $10.00
8. Pocketeering $26.00
5. Egyptian Command $51.00
4. Amazon Eve $101.00
2. Our Son George $151.00

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R2 Hygain Maiden Plate | 1400m 6:30pm

Sacred Days last two second placings in Maiden class have returned ratings that are comfortably better than the exposed form of his competition here. He’s clearly the one to beat. Perseverance was caught three wide at Warranmbool last start and arguably in the worst ground so his effort to be beaten just two-lengths fourth had merit. Off that run he’s a genuine threat to Sacred Days and currently a much better value price.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
3. Sacred Days $1.90
2. Perserverance $4.00
6. Wacky Doo $10.00
9. Misty Lightful $31.00
7. Billowed Sails $34.00
4. Statens $41.00
5. The Wolfman $41.00
1. High Valley $81.00

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R3 XXXX Gold Maiden Plate | 10000m | 7:00pm

There’s a stack of uncertainty here with three first starters right in the market and the favourite Mrs Martin first up off a moderate run in a low rating Saturday class race. They’re difficult to line up with any confidence.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
11. Mrs Martin $3.50
10. I Taut I Saw $4.80
9. Amanaat $6.00
3. Armytage $9.00
8. Woohoo $10.00
1. Lonhwan $21.00
4. Love Dreaming $26.00
5. Miss Romanova $34.00
6. Pieetys $101.00
2. Wept $201.00

R4 APM Group Maiden Plate | 1600m | 7:30pm

Havana Haymaker was good on debut when poorly suited back in a slowly run race, but he ran home solidly to finish second to the favourite who was ideally suited up on the lead. That rating represents clearly the best lead up form for this race and he naturally has the potential to improve.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
4. Havana Haymaker $3.40
10. Dame Largo $5.50
9. Constant Return $6.00
8. Unprovoked $7.50
2. All About Gold $17.00
13. Noaf $18.00
1. Al Solitare $26.00
11. Shes A Scallywag $34.00
6. Long Pin $51.00
14. Mornington Pin $51.00
5. In The Black $61.00

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R5 Schweppes BM64 | 1200m | 8:00pm

Nitro Nick is first up but won his first two starts last preparation with ratings that suggest he’s the horse to beat here. After just five starts he also has the potential for upside. Melanion broke through for a deserved win at Bairnsdale last start, running his best rating for 12 months. A repeat performance puts him right in the winning mix.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
1. Nitro Nick $3.20
2. Tycoon Felix $4.50
5. Melanion $4.60
3. Murphys Reward $8.00
4. Magwitch $17.00
6. Game Up Hardy $26.00
7. Seguro $34.00
8. Bibibang $501.00

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R6 Poytrack BM70 | 1400m | 8:30pm

All About Rhythm has won his last two with ratings that put him clearly on top of this field. He presents with strong credentials well worth backing at a value price.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
3. All About Rythym $2.30
2. Arctic Song $8.00
7. Oxbow $8.00
8. Bedrock Dreams $10.00
4. Viceroy $11.00
6. Honfleurs $13.00
1. Cordoba $18.00

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R7 Racing.com Group BM78 | 1000m | 9:00pm

Orujo finds it hard to win, but has a number of past performances good enough to breakthrough here. Back to 1000m is a big key as all of his best ratings have come over this trip. Tykiato is first up and has won her last two when resuming.

Her career peak came on the synthetic surface at Geelong when first up. Toothless has been well beaten over 1100m in his last two starts but he has prior 1000m runs where he has led at a good speed and just kept running to win well. He can give some cheek in this should not be discounted as a value chance.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
4. Orujo $4.00
10. Tykiato $4.20
6. Toothless $6.50
7. Hotel Sierra $9.00
9. Regal Spur $12.00
5. Its A Shame Billy $15.00
2. Solar Duchess $26.00
8. Petits Reward $26.00
3. Monkstone $41.00
1. African Pulse $61.00

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R8 Bet365 BM64 | 1600m | 9:30pm

Eolande has been caught wide in three of four runs this preparation and the only time she had a good run was two starts ago at Sandown, which resulted in a career peak, beaten just 3.4L behind Bengal Cat in Saturday class. That’s a dominant rating for this race, but she does have to contend with another wide draw.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
9. Eolande $3.50
13. Cinnamon Carter $8.00
10. Crafty Miss $9.00
12. Sensation Ally $10.00
6. Jilly Blu $12.00
5. Intrigo $14.00
11. Dollars Not Sense $14.00
4. Angel Eight $16.00
7. Look At Me Now $26.00
3. Florence $31.00
8. Miss Carobose $61.00

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