The Betfair Insider Ratings: Pakenham, Thursday 12th May 2016

Posted: May 12, 2016

Betfair Insider

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Pakenham.

Pakenham Markets R1 – 8

R1 Cross Electrics Maiden Plate | 1100m 6:00pm

Plenty of first starters and a lack of public trial data make the race impossible to assess with any confidence

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
5. Streets Of Dubai $3.10
7. Cardenas $5.00
2. Liberty Song $6.00
1. Hussor $7.00
8. Miss Zodiac $8.00
3. Mystyko $41.00
6. Anne From Mayo $51.00
4. Skyshark $251.00

 

 

R2 Polytrack Maiden Plate | 1100m 6:30pm

Equidant has been very consistent with his last three ratings up to the winning mark in this race and he should race up on the lead. Curvano is first up off a short break but only needs to run up to previous form to be right in the finish. Old Trieste was sound first up beaten as an odds on favourite and has plenty of scope to improve towards ratings last prep that are the best in this race.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
4. Equidant $4.40
2. Curvano $4.50
6. Old Trieste $4.50
9. Blithe Belle $9.00
11. Night Queen $12.00
10. Calabah Flame $21.00
3. England Dan $26.00
8. Altamira $34.00
5. Hes Harry $21.00
7. Yankee Foxtrot $151.00
1. Congratulations $351.00
13. Tarago Prospector $1001.00

 

R3 JJ Richards Maiden Plate | 1600m | 7:00pm

Napolean’s War last 2 ratings represent the best recent form in this race and he looks likely to cross and control the race in front. He’s very hard to beat. The main danger looks to be Fashion Day who was plain last start, but forgiveable on a soft track. Prior she was very solid when second at Geelong over 1720m, beating the third horse by 4.3 lengths. On that rating she can certainly challenge Napolean’s War.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
5. Napoleons War $3.30
9. Fashion Day $4.00
4. Mr Charisma $10.00
10. Northern Charm $10.00
3. Gazengiggle $12.00
7. Dizzy Days $21.00
8. Falika $31.00
13. Red Hot Romeo $81.00
1. Bedroucho $151.00
6. Bennadeem $501.00

 

R4 Officer Grain Store Maiden Plate | 1400m | 7:30pm

Red Banner has only had 3 career starts and each has returned a rating that puts him clearly on top of this field. He maps awkwardly, but is otherwise dominant and impossible to knock.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
6. Red Banner $1.80
4. Palaios $7.00
5. Podium Bound $8.00
11. Favourite Sister $11.00
1. All About Gold $21.00
2. Artistic Blue $61.00
10. Time For Dancing $101.00
3. Maroon $201.00
8. Shot And Sprung $301.00
7. Relentless Red $501.00
9. Son Of Host $501.00
13. Gold Stalls $501.00

 

R5 XXXX Gold BM64 | 2200m | 8:00pm

Street Spun has a clear class edge over this field, evidenced by her rating two starts ago when 1.5L fifth over 1600m in Listed class at Morphettville. She is the clear top pick here, but that run is so far a career spike and the other ratings around her are certainly not dominant over this field.

Up to 2200m there is some reason for caution given she is currently odds on in the market. Nakataan doesn’t have the same peak as Street Spun but comes off a rock solid last start win and that rating combined with previous efforts over 2000m+ suggest she can challenge Street Spun if that Filly is not at her best.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
3. Street Spun $2.30
4. Nakataan $4.40
1. Gilago $6.00
2. Two Shillings $18.00
5. Fiona Crystal $21.00
6. Dollars Not Sense $21.00
8. Honourable Fred $31.00
9. Guadalcanal $21.00

 

R6 Bet365 BM64 | 1400m | 8:30pm

This is a tricky race as many of the contenders are coming off last start performances below their previous form and the standard needed to win this. Mighty Halo was plain first up at Sandown but has a stack of previous consistent ratings that would win this and he maps well here.

Antrim Belle has been super consistent in five runs this preparation with her last four ratings up to the winning mark in this race. Lucente is massive odds ($34+) and was beaten 15 lengths first up, but three of his four ratings from last preparation would be put him right in the finish of this race.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
4. Mighty Halo $4.80
10. Antrim Belle $5.00
2. Flying Geepee $8.00
11. Absolute Gem $9.00
7. Baheej $11.00
3. Lucente $12.00
12. Nacirema $21.00
1. Beauty Hero $26.00
5. It’s Humphrey $31.00
6. Oscar Dee $31.00
9. Mr Opurrtunist $34.00
8. Excitable Package $251.00

 

R7 Kentucky Equine Research BM64 | 1600m | 9:00pm

Iron Spider is clearly the horse to beat courtesy of a number of past ratings that give him an edge on his opposition, including last start at Sandown over 1600m. However he does get a long way back in his races and barrier 1 makes him subject to getting luck in running at the right time.

He’s very hard to beat, but has minimal betting appeal. Mai Shiny Choice is lightly raced and comes off a very solid last start performance over 1400m at this track. With scope to improve on his side he can run a good race.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
2. Iron Spider $2.90
7. Mai Shiny Choice $7.50
5. Primeiro $8.00
9. Party Boy $9.00
8. Mr Chaplin $11.00
3. Dangerous Spin $16.00
4. Kaphni $16.00
13. Hell On Earth $18.00
6. Latin Moves $34.00
10. The Contortionist $151.00
11. Abichi $401.00

 

R8 Racing.com BM64 | 1200m | 9:30pm

Bon Jet has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, each with a rating that is right up to winning this race. That consistency along with the prospect of a good run up near the lead will make him hard to beat.

Streetshavenoname did a good job last start when horribly suited back off a walking pace and prior to that was a very close second over 1100m at this track in a rating would win this race. The step to 1200m looks suitable.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
5. Bon Jet $4.20
8. Streetshavenoname $4.60
1. Petrov $9.00
2. Jawsome $11.00
7. Uncanny Effort $11.00
10. Valrouz $12.00
12. Bedrock Dreams $21.00
4. Bizarre $26.00
9. The Implicator $34.00
13. Settlers Road $34.00
3. Samikosho $41.00
11. Another Jug $101.00