The Betfair Insider: Randwick, Saturday 3rd October 2015

Posted: October 1, 2015 at 10:13 am

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Randwick, Saturday 3rd October 2015

Track

Soft 7

Rail +3m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 2nd – Max 24. Partly Cloudy.

Saturday 3rd – Max 27. Sunny.

 

R7 Epsom Handicap G1 1600m

Speed Map:

epsom handicap

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 4yos ( only 1 x Mare 2011 Secret Admirer)
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 3rd up or deeper into preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners drawn barrier 8 or wider
  • 4 of past 5 winners ran Top 3 start prior, 2 of 5 last start winners

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – He’s Your Man – SP $5.50 fav 52.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 3 wks 1st Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $6.50 55.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd George Main G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Hooked  – SP $17 52kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Cameron Handicap G3 1500m Newcastle

 

2013 Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Boban – SP $6 53kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Ritchie G3 1400m Randwick

2nd – Streama – SP $4.60 fav 54.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st George Main G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Toydini – SP $6.00 54kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Cameron Handicap G3 1500m Newcastle

 

2012 Rail +4, Good 3

1st – Fat Al – SP $4.60 fav 52kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 1 week 3rd Shannon G2 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Ambidexter – SP $5.50 52kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

3rd – Rolling Pin – SP $41 52kg BR 5 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Shannon G2 1500m Rosehill

 

2011 – Secret Admirer – SP $9 52.5kg BR 16 – 4th up, 1 week 4th Shannon G2 1500m Rosehill

2010 – Captain Sonador – SP $15 52kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Ritchie G3 1400m Randwick

 

Major Players:

Lucia ValentinaImpressive 1st up flashing home beaten only 1.6 lengths in G2 Tramway to Hooked. Generally flat 2nd up but thought the effort this time in remarkably better beaten 2.6 lengths to Cox Plate favourite Kermadec. Hard to see her missing a place here from a soft run in transit (barrier 4), with good tempo.

Entirely PlatinumStable keeping him to 1600m is clearly working. 1st up huge performance beaten 0.1 lengths to Boban in Memsie Stakes. Another narrow defeat 2nd up in G1 Makybe Diva run down late for 3rd to Fawkner. Drawn barrier 14 and will be forced to work early.

WinxATC & QLD Oaks winner that burst back onto the scene with a spectacular win 1st up in the G2 Theo Marks over 1300m, her final splits, last 600 33.32 400 21.88 200 11.04 despite checking off heels near the 500m mark. Profile against 2nd up horses but she does have the residual fitness from her Brisbane Winter Carnival. $3 looks short in early markets and an on course drift would not concern me.

Messene – Ran well first up off a long break in the G2 Missile Stakes 1200m beaten 1.6 lengths to Burbero. Since then has come back to hand fitness wise running strongly in the G2 Shannon Stakes over 1500m a week ago, last 600 33.84 400 22.64 200 11.56. Meets Winx 4kg better when they met 2 starts ago in G2 Theo Marks. Maps well and looks big odds to place.

Silverballfollowing similar path to 2014 winner and stablemate He’s Your Man. Will appreciate freshen up and has an imposing record at the mile, 4 wins from 7 starts. Last time at G1 level over a mile ran 8th beaten 5.8 lengths to Gold Fun in the Hong Kong Classic in 2013. Likely to find these a touch too sharp.

KirramosaDropped well back all 3 starts this preparation and hit line gamely on every occasion. Will have fitness edge on Winx which may help her chances. Her latest effort beaten 3 lengths only to Kermadec in the G1 George Main makes is the right profile for the race but suspect she will cart Winx into the race coming off second best.  

SweynesseOk 1st up in G2 Tramway Stakes beaten 3.2 lengths 9th to Hooked. 2nd up was entitled to do more beaten 4.5 lengths 6th to Kermadec in the G1 George Main. Does his best racing on a Good surface (8 Starts 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third) so expecting a big improvement on a drying track which he needs to if he’s any chance here.

Sadler’s LakeRaced well over the Winter Carnival in Brisbane despite some horror draws. Progressive galloper who keeps stepping up to the mark, following a similar preparation to 2013 winner Boban (Won G3 Ritchie 1400m). Hasn’t broke the clock when winning but rise to the mile and maps to get every favour in running.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Winxhas the most upside of 4yos that have dominated this race in recent times. I suspect layers to take her on so wouldn’t rush into her early price. I’m confident they will bet closer to $4 near race time.

 

R9 The Metropolitan G1 Handicap 2400m

Speed Map:

metropolitan

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper in their preparation
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP FAV
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a last start winner (2012 Glencadam Gold)
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Opinion – SP $12 56kg BR 14 – 4th up, (1 x Trial) 3 weeks 10th Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

2nd – Araldo – SP $31 55.5kg BR 16 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Kingdoms – SP $7.5 55.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, (1x Trial) 3 wks 2nd Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Seville – SP $10 55.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 9th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Julienas – SP $6 55kg BR 12 – 5th up, 1 weeks 1st C Stephen G3 2400m Randwick

3rd – Sneak A Peak – SP $19 54.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

 

2012 Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Glencadam Gold – SP 2.80 fav 53kg BR 4 –  4th up, 2 wks 1st N’castle Cup G3 2300m Newcastle

2nd – Kelinni – SP $7.00 52kg BR 7 – 7th up, 1 week 1st C Stephen G3 2400m Rosehill

3rd – Rueben Percival – SP $61 52kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 5th BM85 85k 1600m Randwick

 

2011 – The Verminator – SP $21 52kg BR 16 – 11th up, 2 wks 5th N’castle Cup G3 2300m Newcastle

2010 – Herculian Prince –- SP $4.80 53.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 1 weeks 5th C Stephen G3 2400m Randwick

 

Major Players:

Beaten UpBack to his best when wide early in G2 Hill Stakes 2000m last start, beaten only 1.1 lengths to Preferment. Last preparation ran Hartnell to 1.5 lengths carrying 59kgs in the G1 BMW at WFA, a repeat of that performances puts him right in the frame here.

Beyond Thankful In a rich vein of form winning 4 of past 5 starts. His recent Newcastle Cup win dominant with 58kg when making one big sweeping run. Has bowman on which helps offset awkward draw in barrier 15.

BonfireSat outside leader and over raced in stages beaten only 1.5 lengths in the G2 Hill Stakes when 1st up off 72 day break. Drops 2.5kg from that run and must improve fitness wise. Profile is against him but trainer has a strong record in the race.

AlmoonqithImport now reaching peak fitness after 3 solid performances in Melbourne. His latest effort in the Naturalism profiles well for this race, His final 400 22.64 200 11.32. In February he won the G3 Nad AL Sheba over 2800m in Meydan, Dubai. The bigger track and rise to 2400m a bonus and Michael Walker comes to Sydney for the ride.

Magic HurricaneLooked the winner of the G2 Hill Stakes at his last start when nailed by Preferment on the line beaten 0.2 lengths. Profiles well for the race dropping 3.5kg under handicap conditions. Will get every favour in transit from barrier 1 but would have preferred him to be stronger through the line last start.

Chance to DanceLooked to race flat 2nd up in the G2 Hill Stakes after a strong win 1st up against The United States 1st up at Moonee Valley over 1600m. Has won over the journey and drops 3.5kg for this. Will improve on a dryer surface & drawn to get a soft run.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Almoonqithprofiles well for the race coming through the Naturalism. He maps closer here making the early price of $7 good value.

 

READ THE BETFAIR INSIDER’S PREVIEW OF TOMORROW’S GROUP 1 TURNBULL STAKES  AT FLEMINGTON