The Betfair Insider: Randwick Saturday 22 August Review

Posted: August 24, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

REVIEW: Randwick, Saturday 22 August 2015

R1 Up & Coming Stakes 1300m

Tactics played nicely into the hands of winner SHARDS giving insider follower’s a dream start to the day at Randwick. Stablemate Inner Circle crossed early to lead Voilier, with blinker’s first time it was always going to be a task for Tim Clark to settle Inner Circle back down so to see the colt finish last was no surprise.

Our pre-race speed map highlighted that SEBRING SUN would be hard to BACK given:
• 1 of past 5 favourites had won the race
• No Winner in the past 5 editions had won with top weight
• His pattern of racing off the speed would be against him with class runner’s mapping closer to the speed

Shards was identified as a horse with big upside given his narrow defeat to PRESS STATEMENT at his second career start. This form puts these two horses in close proximity to Golden Rose ante-post favourite VANCOUVER. It’s hard to say at this stage whether either horse can beat the star colt but given Gai Waterhouse is yet to win a Cox Plate it’s hard to establish whether Vancouver’s real Grand Final will be the Golden Rose or Cox Plate.

R1 Up & Coming Stakes – Price Review

Pre Play

SHARDS

Maximum Price: $5.40
Minimum Price: $2.82

Betfair SP: $3.55

% of volume traded on winner: 26%

The Others
SUPERTAB – $3.00
UNITAB – $3.20
NSW TAB – $3.40

Best Corporate SP: $3.6

In Play

SHARDS

Maximum Price: $5.50
Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Voilier $1.50
3rd Sebring Sun $1.30


R4 Coolmore Silver Shadow 3yo Fillies 1200m

Although taking a few strides to muster speed SPEAK FONDLY found the front easily enough to score dominantly conceding weight or fitness to every other filly in the race. Tim Clark had little option other than to go back on KIMBERLEY STAR from gate 5 after Kangarilla Joy started so brilliantly.

The profile highlighted KIMBERLEY STAR as an ideal LAY proposition given:
• Past 5 winners were all 1st up
• Strong G1 form from the autumn was too advantage.
• KS was yet to defeat the ‘A’ graders

A surprising factor was the lack of support for Speak Fondly in the market given the fence and leading was playing favourably. Gai showed her hand by applying blinkers for the first time and physically she looks a real 1200-1400m horse to follow.

R4 Coolmore Silver Shadow 3yo Fillies – Price Review

Pre Play

SPEAK FONDLY

Maximum Price: $7.00
Minimum Price: $5.50

Betfair SP: $6.60

% of volume traded on winner: 17%

The Others
SUPERTAB – $5.10
UNITAB – $5.20
NSW TAB – $5.00

Best Corporate SP: $6.00

In Play Winner

SPEAK FONDLY

Maximum Price: $6.80
Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Kimberley Star $2.50
3rd Lake Geneva $2.06


R6 Warwick Stakes 1400m

Despite the scratching of First Seal the speed map played very closely to how we imagined. Suggested BACK, ROYAL DESCENT was given a 10/10 ride from Hugh Bowman.

The profile suggested that star mares had a strong record in the race placing second in the past three editions of the race (Royal Descent, Streama, and Secret Admirer).

Royal Descent had been labelled a non-winner in recent times but has always produced a consistent rating on race day. Having placed 12 of her past 25 starts in strong company (this race her first drop to Group 2 level in 7 starts) and given how the race was to play out with Zaratone in the field she was an each way bet to nothing at the price.

Our suggested LAY, First Seal was scratched with a foot abscess and she looks likely to resume in the Tramway Stakes on September 5th.

KERMADEC was held up coming to the corner and hit the line like a horse destined for the Cox Plate. MESSENE ran right up to his best and will be better suited to handicap conditions. PORNICHET looks set for a good preparation but may not be a betting proposition until his 3rd up start.

R6 Warwick Stakes – Price Review

Pre Play

Royal Descent

Maximum Price: $9.20
Minimum Price: $5.50

Betfair SP: $6.20

% of volume traded on winner: 16%

The Others
SUPERTAB – $6.10
UNITAB – $5.80
NSW TAB – $6.00

Best Corporate SP: $6.50

In Play Winner

Royal Descent

Maximum Price: $6.40
Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Pornichet $1.20
3rd Messene $4.00

Follow @Betfair_Aus on twitter for the next Insider preview that will include this week’s Memsie Stakes at Caulfield.

*All Betfair prices published include commission.