The Betfair Insider: NZ Counties Cup – Avondale, Saturday 21 November 2015

Posted: November 20, 2015

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Track

Dead 4

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.metservice.com

Friday 20th – Max 20. Showery.

Saturday 21st – Max 19. Overcast.

 

 

R8 Chep Pallecon Solutions Counties Cup Group 3 2100m

Speed Map:

 

Counties Cup

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have SP < $7
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 55.5kg or more
  • 3 of past 5 winners were Mares
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced at 2000m in lead up run

Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 – Noble Warrior – SP $63.60 58kg BR13 – 14th up, 1 week, 15th G3 NZ Cup 3200m Riccarton

2013 – Annie Higgins – SP $3.80 55.5kg BR6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 7th G3 Sofitel Luxury Hotel Stks 2000m Ellerslie

2012 – Jeu De Cartes – SP $6.90 57kg BR9 – 5th up, 3 wks, 1st Listed Ricoh Fielding Gold Cup 2100m Awapuni

2011 – Postmans Daughter – SP $6.60 52kg BR9 – 3rd up, 3 wks, 2nd G3 Te Hana Spark. Stks 2000m Ellerslie

2010 – Tinseltown –  SP $5.10 57kg BR2 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 4th Open Handicap 1600m Te Rapa

 
Major Players:

Authentic Paddy – Consistent on pace stayer who will need to rise to a new level to win with 59.5kg against this field. He managed to win with 60.5kg in an open handicap at Awapuni last start but there is much more depth to this event. Leader.

Farm Boy – Looks a perfect setup for him to record his first win since February. Only beaten four lengths at weight-for-age in the Group 1 Ormond Memorial 2000m three starts ago and two subsequent runs have been pleasing at a mile. Ideally weighted in this contest dropping down to 55kg, meeting many of his rivals from his narrow fourth behind Rasa Lisa two starts back much better under handicap conditions. Rates a clear favourite and is the horse to beat.

Consensus – Winner of past three starts including Group 3 Sofitel Stakes 2000m last start. Charged to the line late to finish fifth behind Platinum Witness in the Group 1 1000 Guineas last year, proving her class. Drawing barrier 22 mean she’ll need plenty of luck in running, but dropping to the minimum weight of 53kg has genuine appeal.

Vavasour – Finished fourth behind Consensus in past three starts this campaign and the favourable draw gives her an opportunity to turn the tables this time around. Stable thought highly enough of her earlier this year to run in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby where she finished a credible eighth behind Mongolian Khan.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Farm Boy – Suited to step up in distance and drop in weight. Clear standout back down to $3.

 

R9 Auckland Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes Group 2 1400m

Speed Map:

breeders stakes

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have SP > $10
  • 3 of past 5 winners have had their lead up run at Ellerslie
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had at least 10 Days to 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 – Kelly O’Reilly SP $12.90 57kg BR1 – 5th up, 10 days, 7th Carbine Club Trophy Open Hcp 1400m Ellerslie

2013 – Final Touch SP $3 57kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 wks, 4th G2 Coupland’s Bakery Mile 1600m Riccarton

2012 – Lady Kipling SP $4.20 57kg BR2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Open Handicap 1400m Awapuni

2011 – Fazzle SP $19.90 57kg BR10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 7th Rating 90 1200m Ellerslie

2010 – Obsession SP $17.30 57kg BR2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 8th Rating 90 1400m Ellerslie

Major Players:

Soriano – The distance may be a touch shorter than what she desires but there is no doubting this mare is absolutely flying at present. She did an amazing job to win the Group 2 Tauranga Stakes 1600m against the boy’s last start considering she had all her momentum stopped in the straight and still managed to pick herself up and win. Her run prior in the Group 3 Sofitel Stakes 2000m at Ellerslie was desperately unlucky as this time she failed to recover from a severe check. She will be spotting her rivals a start but is certain to be charging late.

Kisses – Bombed the start and ruined her chances in the Group 1 Windsor Park 1600m last start. She was the first mare home in the weight-for-age contest, backing up her encouraging run in the Group 3 Breeders Stakes at Hawera two starts ago. Does have a tendency to begin slowly but if she jumps cleanly can definitely figure in the finish dropping back to mare’s grade.

Sports Illustrated – Was badly held up for a run first-up over 1200m last start at Te Rapa when fifth behind Barbaric. Proved her class in mares grade with a narrow second in the Group 1 Thoroughbred Breeders behind Diademe in April, defeating many of her rivals in this contest. She is quite versatile and can adapt to the speed of the race although her wide barrier is definitely a negative.

Kelly O’Reilly – Winner of this race last year and warmed up for this contest with a tidy second first-up behind Illuminati in an open handicap at Ellerslie last start. She caused an upset 12 months ago and doesn’t appear to have the same depth of form as some of her higher profile rivals.

Procurement – Produced two encouraging runs this campaign against male opposition in the Group 3 Arawa Stakes 1200m and Listed Legacy Lodge Stakes 1200m. Appears ready now for the step up in distance, where she has recorded two wins and two placings from five starts. Tends to race on speed and is disadvantaged by the wide barrier. Carried only 53.5kg last start and poorly weighted against Sports Illustrated this time around on level terms.

Betting Activity:

LAY – E/W – Procurement – Is half it’s right price in early markets at $6.50.

 

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au