THE BETFAIR INSIDER
Canterbury @ Riccarton Park, Saturday 14 November 2015
Weather Forecast www.metservice.com
Friday 13th – Max 15, Showers.
Saturday 14th – Max 19, Overcast.
Profiling the race we learn the following:
- 4 of past 5 winners were stepping up from 1400m to the mile
- 4 of past 5 winners were 3rd or 4th up in their preparation
- 3 of past 5 winners have had four weeks between runs prior to 1000 Guineas
- 5 of past 5 winners have competed against males in either last two starts
- 2 of past 5 winners were last start winners
Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 – Platinum Witness – SP $10.80 56.5kg BR8 – 7th up, 1 week, 4th 2000 Guineas G1 1600m Riccarton
2013 – Costa Viva – SP $6.20 56.5kg BR8 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 1st Ray Coupland Stakes Listed 1400m Ashburton
2012 – Rollout The Carpet – SP $5.30 56.5kg BR11 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 2nd J & A Sarten Stks G3 1400m Te Rapa
2011 – Planet Rock – SP N/A 56.5kg BR12 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 3rd Kolfinna Classic 1400m Trentham
2010 – Kings Rose – SP $10.70 56.5kg BR10 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 1st Ray Coupland Stakes Listed 1400m Ashburton
Secret Spirit – Disappointed as favourite last start but it was a race dominated by those on speed with No More Tears and High Class advantaged by the lack of tempo in the early stages. She had recorded four straight wins prior to the defeat with all wins on extremely heavy surfaces. It’s unlikely but if that track was a slow 8 or worse she’d come right into calculations.
Serena Miss – She was the only filly brave enough to take on the boys in the 2000 Guineas last Saturday and although beaten easily by the brilliant Xtravagent, Serena Miss was hardly disgraced finishing third. It was her first attempt at 1600m and she appeared to run it out strongly, suggesting a drop back to her own sex would be highly advantageous. Trainer Graeme Rogerson is following the same pattern as last year’s 1000 Guineas winner Platinum Witness and his filly profiles extremely well for this race. She was dominant in her win two starts ago in the Group 2 James & Annie Sarten Memorial Stakes, beating the males over 1400m. Prior to that she had the measure of No More Tears and Maritimo when second to Serious Satire over 1200m. I’ve marked her clear favourite.
Maritimo – Stablemate to Serena Miss and clear second stringer from the Rogerson camp in my opinion. Okay run for fifth, finishing behind Serena Miss in the Gold Trail Stakes over 1200m before just getting the job done in a much weaker BM75 against the boys over 1400m at Riccarton last start. Positioned to get a cozy run on the fence from barrier one but appears too short in the market in early betting markets and will drift heavily from $6.
No More Tears – Lightly raced filly who has competed at stakes level in all three career outings, including a last start win in the Listed Soliloquy Stakes 1400m, defeating High Class and Secret Spirit. She was able to take advantage of the slow early speed, positioning close to the leader and kicking clear in the wet conditions. I can’t see her getting a similar run to suit here from barrier 11 and she was clearly outclassed by Serena Miss at her previous start. I’ve marked her closer to $10.
Risque – Relished the step up to a mile last start, powering to the line late with a strong burst to win the Armadillo Stakes 1600m. This form line is proven for this contest with Platinum Witness winning the same race before taking on the boys in the 2000 Guineas. Risque was beaten by Special Memories over 1400m but turned the tables out to the mile last start. She appears the big improver and has been rated second favourite.
Let Her Rip – Produced an amazing performance first-up, surging from last on the turn to whizz past her rivals, including 2000 Guineas winner Xtravagent, over 1200m. The strength of that run had her short in the market second-up, but she was unable to replicate and finished well beaten behind Serena Miss. The stewards report suggests her jockey said she failed to let down on the firmer track and would prefer a little more sting out to show her best. Her first-up win was on a Soft 7 while her defeat was on a Good 3. Could be the knock out at big odds if there’s enough cut out of the ground.
BACK – WIN – Serena Miss – Should be a clear favourite given her SP was $4.40 in a much stronger Group 1 against the boys last week and wasn’t disgraced. Happy to back her down to $3.
LAY – WIN – No More Tears – Looks half her right price and will be forced to work early from the wide gate. Won’t get away with a cheap run as she did last start.
Profiling the race we learn the following:
- 4 of past 5 winners had their final lead up run in Metropolitan Trophy at Riccarton
- 5 of past 5 winners finished no further back then 4th in their lead up run
- 3 of past 5 winners were 6th up in their preparation
- 5 of past 5 winners carried 54.5kg or less
Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 – Mungo Jerry SP $21.80 54.5kg BR 18 – 5th up, 1 week, 3rd Metropolitan Trophy Listed 2500m Riccarton
2013 – Spring Cheer SP $4.10 fav 53kg BR 3 – 5th up, 3 days, 4th Farmers Mill Open Handicap 2000m Riccarton
2012 – Blood Brotha SP $6.40 53kg BR 13 – 6th up, 1 week, 4th Metropolitan Trophy Listed 2500m Riccarton
2011 – Blood Brotha – SP N/A 53.5kg BR 2 –6th up, 1 week 4th Metropolitan Trophy Listed 2500m Riccarton
2010 – Showcause – SP $17.80 52.5kg BR 12 – 6th up 1 week 3rd Metropolitan Trophy Listed 2500m Riccarton
Benzini – Clearly the best performed horse in the race but penalised with 59kg as a result. Boasts a Group 1 placing at weight for age only three starts back over 2040m at Hastings. Finished a credible sixth in the Auckland Cup earlier this year at two miles. Found the line okay behind Southern Sav last start but doesn’t get any turn around at the weights, meeting the lightly rated runner on the same terms.
Blathwayt – Heads to Riccarton for the first time this preparation and regarded as one of the leading chances thanks to a dominant win in the Listed Fielding Cup 2000m at Awapuni last start a fortnight ago. Yet to run beyond 2500m in his career but tends to get back and hit the line strongly, suggesting the rise in distance would suit. His weight of 55.5kg is heavier than any of the past five winners and the profile also leans to horses that are backing up within seven days. Happy to lay at $5 in early markets.
Black Stockings – Very unconventional preparation given he is attacking this two mile contest second-up. She has only raced twice in the past 18 months which is definitely a worry but on best form will give this race a huge shake. Meets Southern Sav 3.5kg better from when they met over 2000m and went close to defeating Melbourne Cup placegetter Who Shot Thebarman in previous campaigns. Will be a great training performance if she can win and think she’s overpriced in early betting at $17.
Blood Brotha – Veteran stayer who is proven at the trip, having won this race twice in 2011 and 2012. Was easily beaten last start by Southern Sav when settling at the rear of the field and surging late for second. He wasn’t taking significant ground off the winner but there was enough there to suggest he is ready to peak once again on the big day.
Southern Sav – Circled the field from last mid race and then kept extending lead to win the Gold Club Metropolitan Trophy last week in arrogant fashion. This traditional lead up has been a brilliant guide to the New Zealand Cup in recent years and there is every chance it could provide the winner once again. He was entitled to get tired considering he did a mountain of work in the middle stages and still managed to hold a significant margin at the finish. Fits the profile with the light weight and I’d imagine he will look to find cover from the wide draw out of the gates. Last start he made a long sustained run so 3200m so be no issue.
Jimmy Mac – Went forward in the early stages last start before being shuffled back through the field. He was out in clear running with ample time to give Southern Sav a run for his money but was no match in the final 600m. Barrier one should ensure that he is able to enjoy a conservative run on the fence and his form prior, with three consecutive victories, is encouraging. Big chance.
BACK – WIN – Southern Sav – Recent history says the best run in the Metropolitan Trophy wins the New Zealand Cup and his clearly was. There were no excuses for the beaten brigade and with even luck he should win again. Early price of $6.50 is worth the risk.
BACK – E/W – Black Stockings – If there is going to be a surprise at big odds, this looks the horse. I’ve marked her close to $10.
Good Luck Backing and Laying
The Betfair Insider
*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.