The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Friday 2nd October 2015

540x240_v4

THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Moonee Valley, Friday 2nd October 2015

 

Track

Good 3 or 4

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 1st – Max 22. Mostly Sunny. 15-25 km/h winds.

Friday 2nd – Max 25. Sunny 15-25 km/h winds.

 

R5 Stutt Stakes G2 1600m

Speed Map:

 

Stutt Stakes 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 7 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have run in Listed or Group in their lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper in their preparation

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Almalad – SP $3 fav 57kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2nd – Moonovermanhattan – SP $13 57kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 wks 4th Exford Plate 1400m Flemington

3rd – Kumaon – SP $13 57kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 10th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Divine Calling – SP $3.20 fav 57kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO Hcp 80k Moonee Valley

2nd – Shamus Award – SP $7 57kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 7th Exford Plate 1400m Flemington

3rd – Cluster – SP $6.50 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

 

2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Pierro – SP $1.06 fav 57kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st Run To Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Carringbush Jack – SP $71 57kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd 3YO Hcp 80k 1500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Jimando – SP $13 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Henry Bucks Listed 1400m Flemington

2011 – Chase The Rainbow – SP $2.60 fav 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, 4 wks 2nd Henry Bucks 1400m Flem

2010 – Hollowlea – SP $10 57kg BR 1 – 6th up, 1 week 6th Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

RagnaarEx Kiwi now with Lee & Anthony Freedman. Won his 1st start in Australia in a 1400m Maiden at Bendigo a fortnight ago. Mapped well that day and had to come across heels at the top of the straight. When clear won like a good horse. Has tactial speed to box seat here & rise to 1600m a plus. Stable have indicated he’s a derby prospect and could already be looking for further?

Sovereign Nation – Impressed on debut coming off the speed to win via protest after being checked 100m from the line. He ran good time that day following that performance up in the Listed Exford Plate over 1400 beaten 2.55 lengths finishing 7th. He was caught wide early and went back worse than midfield.  This time he’s drawn barrier 3 and is likely to settle much closer in running. If he produces similar closing sectionals as his two starts prior he’ll be hard to beat.  Fits profile best coming from strongest form reference. Winner of Exford Plate (Bon Aurum) has since won Guineas Prelude a week ago.

AdmirabeelBox seated on debut after jumping well showing good early speed. Leaders kicked 3-4 lengths clear that day, he passed them quickly but it was a real grinding win and times weren’t great. Likely leader and will improve, but may lack class to win. 

CollaborateWell-bred Kiwi colt on debut here in Australia. Last start was impressive sitting 3 wide midfield (albeit on a heavy track) to kick away strongly winning by 1.5 lengths a further 3.3 lengths to 3rd. Stable mate Mongolian Khan won the same race and has been nominated for all the big 3yo races. Looks well placed here and maps as a winning chance.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Sovereign Nation – Profiles strongest for the race and will SP Favourite $3+ OK Odds.

BACK – WIN – Collaborate – drawn to get a soft run and confident he will measure up in a weak edition of the race.

 

R7 Moir Stakes G1 WFA 1200m

 

Speed Map:

Moir Stakes 2015

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • N/A

NB: 2010 & 2011 G2 Schweppes Stakes raced on Cox Plate day, 2012 – Current Moir G1 WFA. 2015 Moir Stakes now 1000m dropping back from 1200m previously. 

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $5.5 58.5kg BR 3 – 1st up, 18 weeks 3rd Doomben 10k G1 1350 Doomben

2nd – Lankan Rupee – SP $1.55 fav 58.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd McEwen G2 1000m M Valley

3rd – Rebel Dane – SP $8 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up. 7 wk freshen 3rd Missile G2 1200m Randwick

 

2013 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Samaready – SP $7 56.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st The Heath G3 1100m Caulfield

2nd – Buffering – SP $3.50 fav 58.5kg BR 10 – 1st up (1x Trial), 12 weeks 2nd Stradbroke Hcp 1400m EF

3rd – Le Bonsir – SP $26 58.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Chandler McLeod Listed 1200m M Valley

 

2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $2.00 fav 58.5kg BR 10 – 1st up, 16 weeks 2nd Stradbroke Hcp G1 1400m E Farm

2nd – Ready To Rip – SP $12 58.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 4 wk freshen 3rd Lawrence G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Thankgodyou’rehere – SP $12 58.5kg BR 7 – 1st up (1x T), 13 wks 11th Stradbroke G1 1400m EF

 

2011 – Black Caviar – SP $1.05 fav 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Schillaci G2 1000m Caulfield

2010 – Black Caviar –  SP $1.40 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Schillaci G2 1000m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

BufferingWorld class sprinter that has won or placed in last 3 editions of the race (over 1200m). Now back to 1000m may find it a touch sharp but has drawn perfectly in barrier 6 and will make presence felt at one of his favourite venues. Damien Browne engaged.

Flambergenever looked comfortable in running 1st up when beaten only 1.5 lengths to star sprinter Chautauqua in the G2 McEwen Stakes at The valley a month ago. He keep finding the line that day but record isn’t as effective 2nd up which is slight concern. Barrier 12 not ideal either.

Ball Of MuscleLooks a genuine 1000m horse (4 starts 2 wins 1 second 1 third) and Moonee Valley will suit his running style. Has drawn barrier 1 and will give a big kick off the turn. Last start 2nd to Rebel Dane in the G2 Shorts over 1100m reads well for this but not sure he’s as well suited under WFA conditions here.  

Angelic LightWinner this track and distance 2nd up this time last year in G2 McEwen stakes defeating Lankan Rupee by 0.1 lengths. Trialled well recently to suggest she’s come back as good as ever. She’s drawn wide in barrier 10 but will get cover and swoop late off a genuine tempo.

FontitonWon this track and trip on debut this track in slick time. Rocketed to the top of Blue Diamond betting and won her next two starts including the Blue Diamond Prelude. Finished 5th beaten 3.35 lengths in the Blue Diamond after starting $2.25 favourite. Has had bone chips removed for her knee and Robert Smerdon has thrown her straight back into the deep end here suggesting she’s back to her best. 

Petits FilousUnbeaten filly in 4 career starts. Her latest win in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes her most impressive eased to the line but running home her last 600 32.84 400 22.14 200 11.56. Recent placegetters behind her have since won G2 Thousand Guineas prelude (Miss Gunpowder) and last Friday night G2 Champagne Stakes (Take Pride). Giant step up in class here but maps well.

Betting Activity:

LAY – E/W – Petits FilousHard to fault her form, running slick time against her own age and sex. Will risk here at start 5 in her first preparation at very short odds. $2.30 – $2.50 in early markets and keen to lay her up to $3 against seasoned sprinters.

 

READ THE BETFAIR INSIDER’S PREVIEW OF TOMORROW’S RANDWICK MEET