The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Friday 25 September 2015

Posted: September 24, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER 

Moonee Valley, Friday 25 September 2015

Track

Good 4

Rail +5m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 24th – Max 14. Partly Cloudy 50% chance of showers.

Friday 25th – Max 17. Partly Cloudy. Light winds.

 

R6 Gallagher Bassett / TBV Champagne G3 3yo F SW 1200m

Speed Map:

Champagne Stakes G3 3YOF

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners 3rd up, 2 of past 5 winners 2nd
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or less
  • 1 of past 5 winners SP Fav (2012 – Snitzerland)
  • 3 of past 5 winners Group 2 placed at start prior (2014, 2013 & 2012)

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Eloping – SP $4.40 56kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 3rd McEwen Stakes G2 1000m Moonee Valley

2nd – Tahni Dancer – SP $19 56kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 3YF MDN-SW 17.5K 1200m Cranbourne

3rd – Tawteen – SP $2 Fav 56kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st 3YF SWP 80k 1200m Moonee Valley

 

2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Thump – SP $6 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 3rd Furious Stakes G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Miracles Of Life – SP $2.45 Fav 56kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th McNeil G3 1200m Caulfield

3rd – I Love It – SP $9.50 56kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st 3Y MDN-SW 15k 1000m Warracknabeal

 

2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Snitzerland – SP $1.40 Fav 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – Hoss Amor – SP $9.00 56kg BR 4 – 1st up (1 x T), 11 weeks 1st Cent Classic Listed 1400m E Farm

3rd – Saturn Rock – SP $20.00 56kgBR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd 3YF SWP 80k 1200m Moonee Valley

 

2011 – Miss Stellabelle – SP $11 56kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st 3Y MDN-SW 15k 1100m Bendigo

2010 – Lone Rock – SP $20 56kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th 3YF SWP 70k 1200m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Reemah – Almost pinched the G1 Blue Diamond at cricket score odds at start three. Has drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 especially with rail +5m. Fits the profile of winner dropping back from the G2 Danehill Stakes (boys form) where she was beaten 4.1 lengths, her sectionals late were ok but looks to my eye like a mile would be better for her at this stage.

Serenade – Class filly who impressed in the G1 Golden Slipper as a 2yo when running on from well back on the worst part of the track beaten only 2.1 lengths. Resumed impressively in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes despite laying in home her last 400 22.04 200 11.66. Her run peaked at the 100m so expecting her to improve sharply here.

Antelucan – Worked in the run at her latest start (last preparation) in the G3 Black Opal Stakes beaten 2.5 lengths. Has had two trials leading into this, including an ok track gallop at The Valley on Tuesday morning.  Maps awkwardly from barrier 11, stable have always had a wrap on her but how much has she improved?

Painted Firetail – Impressive winner on debut as a 2yo in April on a heavy 8.  Her first up run a forgive after missing the start and then held up when straightening. Her last 400 at Kembla 21.72 200 10.98. She has untapped ability, maps well needing to stalk Secret Agenda throughout then run. Big chance.

Viddora – Smart Adelaide filly unlucky not to come here undefeated. Although she doesn’t profile as strongly, her last start data (2.5 length win BM70 Hcp Morph 1050m) suggests she will be competitive. She maps to sit outside the leader but can she repeat that performance in this grade over 1200m? I’m not convinced.

Secret Agenda – Genuine race filly. Professional on Debut flogging her rivals over 1000m here, last 400 22.80 200 11.36. She was early Blue Diamond favourite off that performance, but failed in the Prelude beaten 7.25 lengths after starting $4.20. Defeated the boys 1st up at Sandown 3YO BM70 in a blistering last 600 32.96 400 21.60 200 11.04. Maps perfectly here and trainer reported she was ‘tubby’ first up. WOW.

Hell Or Highwater – Broke her maiden win in style last start at Cranbourne putting rivals away very early to coast to a 2.75 length win. She had excuses in the Merson Cooper on debut, then in the Blue Diamond Prelude when trapped wide. Gets every favour here from inside draw but that may work against her. Place at best.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Secret Agenda – Looks a star in the making after a strong first up win and I wouldn’t be shocked if she started $2.