The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley and Randwick, Saturday September 5

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Saturday September 5

 

Moonee Valley, Saturday 5 September 2015

Track

Good 4

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 4th – 14. Partly Cloudy. Light southerly winds.

Saturday 5th – 14. Cloudy. Patchy fog 20% chance of a shower in the morning.

 

R7 Dato Tan Chin Nam 1600m G2 WFA

Speed Map:

Dato Tan Chin Nam 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of 5 winners 2nd up ( 2 weeks, 1400m Caulfield ideal lead up)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favs
  • 5 of past 5 SP Favs have finished Top 3

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

 

2014 Rail True

1st – The Cleaner – SP $4.40 fav, 59kg BR 2 – 5 week freshen, 1st HCP 80k 1600m MV

2nd – Mourinho – SP $14, 59kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st HCP 80k 1500m MV

3rd – Forteller – SP $7, 59kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Lawrence Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

 

2013 Rail True

1st – Fiorente – SP $3.20 fav, 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Spacecraft – SP $51, 59kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Heatherlie Hcp Listed 1700m Caulfield

3rd – Lidari – SP $9.50, 59kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 5th Lawrence Stakes  G2 1400m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail true

1st – Happy Trails – SP $5.50, 59kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Spring Stakes G3 1200m Morp

2nd – Green Moon – SP $4.0 fav, 59kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 5th Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Rekindled Interest – SP $5, 59kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 10th Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caul

 

2011 – Rekindled Interest – SP $7, 58.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caul

2010 – Whobegotyou – SP $3.10, 59kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Foreteller – Ran 3rd in this race last year from barrier 11, faces the same task as last year but meets a much stronger field with Contributer and Dibayani. Last 400 22.68 1st up in the Warwick Stakes beaten only 3.5 lengths suggests he’s going well but looks a place hope at best.

Mourinho – Moonee Valley specialist winning 5 from 11 starts. Had ideal circumstances in Lawrence Stakes to narrowly defeat The Cleaner. Has won past 3 at G2 level and will stalk the leader from barrier 3. Stable will be desperate to win will race given 1st prize is ballot exemption for the Cox Plate. Profile says yes.

Contributer – Class horse winner of the Chipping Norton G1 & Ranvet Stakes G1 in the Sydney Autumn being going amiss. Current Cox Plate favourite & stable report he’s over the injury that cut short his autumn campaign. No horse in last 5 has won this race 1st up & I’d rather him drawn away from the rail. Profile suggests he won’t miss a place.

The Cleaner – Leader, cult hero & Moonee Valley specialist. Unbeaten track and distance, profiles well for the race and looking for the Cox Plate ballot exemption. Mourinho will have the drop on him in similar circumstances as their clash in the Lawrence. I won’t be laying him.

Dibayani – Has settled in enormously with Hayes & Dabernig. Was wide 1st up in the Lawrence and still reeled off a closing last 400 22.92 200 11.64. Profile suggests horses suited best 2nd up here. Maps perfectly and at his second start in Hong Kong ran Able Friend to 3.3 lengths at G1 level over a mile.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Dibayani $13-15/$3-3.20 is luxury odds and his 2014 Hong Kong Derby run is worth watching. If he maps similar to his run 1st up I can’t see him missing a place at great odds. I’d be having triple the stake the place and rate him closer to a $6 chance.

 

** Dibayani is worth a small bet at 100/1 for the cox plate. No horse has completed the Dato/Cox double since El Segundo in 2007 but if he wins this you will be able to LAY BACK closer to the race.

 

R8 Mitty’s McEwen Stakes 1000m G2 WFA

Speed Map:

McEwen Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners 1st up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favs
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried > 56.5kgs

 

1000m Barrier Position Stats (www.racingandsports.com.au)

1000m barrier stats MV 020915

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

 2014 – Angelic Light – SP $21, 56.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Carlyon Stakes Listed 1000m MV

2013 – Kuroshio – SP $16 , 52kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 7th San Domenico G3 1100m Rosehill

2012 – Bel Sprinter – SP $2.90 fav, 58.5kg BR 5 – 1st up, 16 weeks 9th Galaxy G1 1100m Randwick

2011 – Buffering – SP $8.50, 58.5kg BR 8 – 1st up, 11 weeks 4th WJ Healy Stakes G3 1200m E Farm

2010 – Hay List – SP $2.50 fav, 58.5kg BR 4 – 1st up, 11 weeks 1st WJ Healy Stakes G3 1200m E Farm

 

Major Players:

Chautauqua – Obvious class runner of the field. His record speak for himself finishing out of a placing only twice in his 14 start career. Fits the profile of the race strongly and has closing sectionals to win from almost anywhere. 1000m barrier 12 stats against him (displayed above). Very large field to navigate around/through and has impressed in recent jump out. Already $2.00 to $2.6 on the Exchange.

Flamberge – Ran 2nd to Chautauqua 1st up last preparation in the Rubiton Stakes. A last start winner of the Goodwood G1 in Adelaide off a 56 day break. Has won 3 from 5 first up and placed at both starts at Moonee Valley. Looks likely to sit midfield (3/4 pairs back) in running off the fence, giving him every chance to win.

Kuro – Unbeaten at 1000m albeit in weak company. Very progressive galloper that keeps raising the bar, reportedly worked well in a gallop on Tuesday at The Valley. Change of stable may be some advantage with Mark Zahra on top who’s in great form. May need luck from barrier 2 with rail in true position. I won’t be laying him.

I’m All The Talk – One dimensional sprinter who knows only to lead. Blinkers off may improve his chances but barrier 9 won’t be easy and fancy the track plays fair with rail true. Prefer under handicap conditions.

Sistonic – Hype galloper being a close relation to Black Caviar. Reports from Lindsay Park indicate she’s at her best. Not convinced that will measure up but interesting that stable has opted to kick her preparation off here. Has plenty of early speed to map well enough to win race. Although she hasn’t produced any data thus far that would indicate she can win this.

Headwater (SCR) – Won track & trip 1st ever career start. Backed up the effort with effortless win in the Silver Slipper G2 without beating much. Honest performance in the Golden Slipper G1 beaten only 1.9 lengths. Barrier 13 awful but follows similar profile to 2013 winner Kuroshio. * Scratched *

Furnaces – Winner of Kindergarten G3 1100m on a heavy track in autumn. Prior to that two honest performances behind Vancouver in the Todman G2 & Golden Slipper G1.  Dream run in transit and has trialled well for this is clear top pick of 3yo’s.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – Flamberge $7 in early markets. He looks the best ‘risk v reward’ betting option in the race which could be a real rough house affair. He maps perfectly, meets the profile and has the class to win. I can’t find a negative aside from Chautauqua being in the field.

 

Randwick, Saturday 5 September 2015

Track

Soft 5

Rail +8m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 4th – 18. Mostly cloudy. 60 % chance of rain 1-5mm

Saturday 5th – 21. Cloudy. 70% chance of rain 1 to 3mm

 

R6 Chelmsford Stakes 1600m G2 WFA

Speed Map:

Chelmsford Stakes 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 using Warwick Stakes as lead up run
  • Chris Waller has won past 3 editions. (2014 1st 2nd 3rd , 2013 1st 2nd)
  • Only 2 of past 5 winner’s favourites, 5 of past 5 winner’s SP < $10
  • John O’Shea’s best finish in past 5 years, 3rd 2013 Lightinthenite (1st up)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

NB: 2014 & 2013 Randwick, 2012 – 2010 Warwick Farm

 

2014 Rail +4m

1st – Hawkspur – SP $10, 59kg BR 5 – 3rd up , 2 weeks 5th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m Randwick

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $4.6 57kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Warwick Stakes G2 1400m Randwick

3rd – Bagman – SP $7.0 59kg BR 4 – 8th up, 3 weeks 1st 80k HCP 2000m Caulfield

 

2013 Rail +8m

1st – Hawkspur – SP $5.5, 58.5 kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

2nd – Beaten Up – SP $4.40, 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

3rd – Lightinthenite – SP $13, 59kg BR 8 – 1st up (1 Trial), 10 weeks 4th Brisbane Cup 2400m E Farm

 

2012

1st – Danleigh – SP $8.5, 59kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

2nd – Secret Admirer – SP $3.20, 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

3rd – Lamasery – SP $4.40, 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks  4th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

 

2011 – Trusting – SP $3.70 fav, 59kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 5th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

2010 – Theseo – SP $3 fav, 59kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 5th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

 

Major Players:

Hartnell – Not convinced he’s a winning chance but hard to overlook the class of a BMW winner. Huge run 1st up in Chipping Norton last prep running 2nd to Contributer. He’s been set for the Cox Plate so is likely to need this run against the Warwick Stakes 2nd up brigade. He maps well but is impossible to find at the price. Caulfield Cup weight of 55.5kg looks attractive if the opt to change paths.

Pornichet – Huge performance 1st up working hard and wide early. He was entitled to weaken late. There’s a distinct lack of speed in this race and if he continues to improve he’ll look the winner at some stage. I won’t be laying him.

Beaten Up – Will lead or box seat depending on It’s Somewhat starting in the field. He lacks the turn of foot to beat the classier Waller horses but Glyn Schofield’s best hope of victory is leading or taking off early.  Fits profile but needs every card to fall his way.

Kermadec – Snagged back at the start of the Warwick Stakes. Was under wraps the entire race and given lack of tempo will settle off the fence and closer here. Ran the fastest last 600 34.14 400 22.54 200 11.46 of the Warwick Stakes. Randwick ++ his last start track and distance winning G1 Doncaster.

Royal Descent – Had all the favours to win the Warwick Stakes. She was more forward than her rivals but loves Randwick despite never winning at this distance. Hard to see her missing a place and if the track stays slow or worse she’ll be hard to beat.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – Hartnell $3.40 (corporate’s early) is grossly under the odds based off the profile and I see him hitting the wall hard 100m from home. I rated him closer to a $6 chance.

BACK – Kermadec anything > $4 early is good betting. He will settle in the first half and his turn of foot and lack of tempo in this race will play nicely into his hands. He will trade low odds on ‘in play’ allowing a LAYING BACK opportunity for those less confident.

 

Stay tuned to @Betfair_Aus this Monday as I review the major races from the weekend.

 

Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au