The Betfair Insider: Geelong Cup, Wednesday 21 October

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Geelong, Wednesday 21 September 2015

 

Track

Good 4

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Wednesday 21st – Max 18, partly cloudy. High chance of showers (70%) 1-4mm in the evening.

 

R7 Geelong Cup Handicap G3 2400m

Speed Map:

geelong cup

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 1 of past 4 winners have been SP favourites
  • 2 of past 4 winners have been International runners 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried >55kg
  • 4 of past 5 winners have raced at G1 or G2 level at their lead up run
  • 5 of past 5 winners have raced at 2400m or more at their lead up run

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Caravan Rolls On – SP $8.50 54 kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 5th Harry White Listed 2400m Sandown

2nd – Marksmanship – SP $9.00 54 kg BR 1 – 5th up, 3 wks 2nd Bart Cummings G3 2520m Flemington

3rd – Like A Carousel – SP $9.50 54kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 3 wks 1st Harry White Listed 2400m Sandown

 

2013 Rail True, Heavy 9

1st – Ibicenco – SP $5.5 56.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 3 weeks 12th Metropolitan G1 2400m Randwick

2nd – Verdant – SP $8 54.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 6th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Moudre – SP $6.5 56.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Gatewood – SP $3.20 fav 55.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

2nd – Chateau Margaux – SP $10 54kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 wks 1st Pinker Pinker Listed 2040m Cranbourne

3rd – Brigantin – SP $3.5 57.5 BR 1 –  1st up, 9 weeks 2nd Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville France

 

2011 – Dunaden – SP $6.00 58kg BR 8 – 1st up, 8 weeks 9th Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville France

2010 – Americain – SP $11 58kg BR 1 – 1st up, 8 weeks 1st Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville France

 

Major Players:

Quest For More – First emergency in the Caulfield Cup and currently 26th in Melbourne Cup Order of Entry. Two starts ago defeated Willie Mullins trained Max Dynamite (55kg in Cup) by 1.3 lengths at Newmarket at level weights. His most recent start 2nd in the Goodwood Cup on July 30th beaten 0.3 lengths to Big Orange (55.5kg in cup) with Trip to Paris finishing 3rd. Trip to Paris carried 1.5 kg more than Quest For More on that occasion. His 2400m form reads well 5 starts 2 wins 2 seconds and 1 third. Will need to find cover a few pairs back in running off a wide draw, but there’s no reason why he won’t go close. How he opened $21 in early markets is beyond me but good luck to the punters that got set.

Dandino – Simply flying this preparation and looks weighted fairly here with 57.5kgs. Last start 4th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes was a huge run, trapped wide from barrier 14, beaten under a length. His sectionals late weren’t flash but he was fast through the first 600 and strong from 1000m-400m mark. Has drawn barrier 9 and with strong tempo upfront I’m confident they will elect to sit back in his usual racing pattern. Has been $4 into $3.50 but that looks rock bottom.

Bonfire – Was OK 1st up in G2 Hill Stakes beaten only 1.5 lengths to Preferment. Last start 6th in the Metropolitan sat outsider the leader and faded late beaten 4 lengths. He seems to spike 1st up and 3rd up in his preparation so expect him to improve off the Metropolitan run. Given speed in the race I’m happy to take him on at the price. Mark Zahra a plus but Waterhouse stable going terribly.

Guardini – G2 winner in Cologne Germany over 2400m in May 2015 he defeated Giralamo by 2 lengths. Giralamo won a G1 at the same track in distance defeating Araldo in 2013.  Gaurdini failed at his latest start in the Sword Dancer G1 2414m at Saratoga in the USA beaten 30.3 lengths. He worked across from a wide gate and led until the 600m but dropped the bit quickly (jarred up or tongue over the bit?). Freedman indicated that it was a race against the clock for spring this year so I can only assume he’s settled in well. He has early speed to map well, is lightly raced and is a big watch.

Sertorius – Raced well 1st up in the G1 Memsie Stakes beaten only 2.85 lengths to Boban. Had a virus and forced to take a month between runs into the G1 underwood Stakes 2nd up. Got too far back in the Herbert Power last start off a slow tempo and ran the 3rd fastest last 200m in 11.88. Has always been a run behind this preparation so expect him to settle a lot closer from barrier 5 and improve remarkably at his home track. Blinkers on first time a big plus.

Almoonqith – Profiled like the winner in the G1 Metropolitan last start but got well out of his ground. He looked unsettled from the gates and didn’t seem comfortable in running. He was set alight 600m from home but was forced 10 wide around the home turn. Love the Change of rider with James McDonald now in the saddle and suspect he’ll stalk Quest For More. If you forgive that run he’s a mile over the odds at $17.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Dandino – I’ve rated him >$4.50 so couldn’t back him at $3.50 in early markets.

LAY – E/W – Bonfire – Looks at least half his right price at $8-9 in early markets.

BACK – WIN – Almoonqith – looks a $9 -$10 chance off his last two runs.

 

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.