The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Sunday 4th October 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Flemington, Sunday 4th October 2015

 

Track

Good 3

Rail +9m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Saturday 3rd – Max 28. Partly Cloudy. 25-35 km/h winds.

Sunday 4th – Max 30. Partly Cloudy. 20-30 km/h winds.

 

R7 Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m

Speed Map:

Turnbull 2015

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners started at 1600m in their lead up run.
  • 5 of past 5 winners started barrier 8 or closer

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Lucia Valentina – SP $8.5 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Lidari – SP $18 55.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

3rd – Brambles – SP $10 54.5 BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Hcp 80k 1700m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Happy Trails – SP $26 57.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

2nd – Puissance De Lune –SP $3.90 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 wk 7th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

3rd – Fawkner – SP $13 55.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

 

2012 Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Green Moon – SP $4 fav 55.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Feehan G1 1600m Moonee Valley

2nd – Seville – SP $31 54.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – December Draw – SP $6 57.5kg BR 3 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

 

2011 – December Draw – SP $2.15 fav 54.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 wk 1st Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

2010 – Zipping – SP $17 59kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 5th Feehan G2 1600m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Rising RomanceHad the rails run in the G1 Makybe Diva over 1600m here but had no luck obtaining a clear run in the closing stages. That race profiles well for this with 3 week break and rise to 2000m. She’s a genuine 2000m horse and will be hard to hold out.

HartnellHis 1st up run in the G2 Chelmsford beaten 2.9 lengths to Complacent & Kermadec was better than it looked for mine.  He was installed false favourite that day and drifted heavily.  He improves 2nd up here to 2000m but suspect he’s 1 or 2 away from his best. Cox Plate most likely but a flat run here will see him Caulfield Cup bound I’d imagine.

PrefermentRated to perfection by Hugh Bowman last start to win the G2 Hill Stakes 2nd up. Not the usual profile of the Turnbull winner but loves Flemington winning the Derby here last spring. Great test of class here, but most likely to be looking for further in trip.   

Gust Of WindImpressive 2nd up beaten 1.85 lengths in G1 Makybe Diva over 1600m. Rise to 2000m a bonus, she boasts a 2.5 length autumn ATC Oaks 2400m victory over the highly rated Winx. Expect the tempo to be strong enough for her to fill the placing’s but think she’s better suited to handicap conditions of a Caulfield Cup where she will drop to 51kgs.

Royal DescentClass mare well suited under Set Weights plus Penalties carrying 53.5kg here. Last start carried 57kg at WFA beaten only 0.5 length to Cox Plate Favourite Kermadec. This is her best chance to win over 2000m despite failing at her pervious 4 attempts.

Alpine EagleWas the eye catching runner 2nd up in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes when 3w the entire. He hit the line hard beaten only 0.8 lengths to Fawkner reeling off his last 600 33.00 400 21.62 200 11.04. He drops 4kg from that run and will win if given an easier run in transit.

HaurakiDidn’t savage the line 2nd up in the G1 George Main but suspect that run has brought him on significantly with all roads leading to the Caulfield Cup. Lightly raced and jumped out of the Ground 4th up in the G2 Tulloch stakes in autumn. Interesting runner.

AmralahDidn’t fire at first start in Australia when sent out short ($11) in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes last November. 1st up this time beaten 11.1 lengths Charmed Harmony over 1400m at Caulfield.  Then spiked 2nd up over 1800m in the Tokyo City at Morphettville winning by 3 lengths. Prefer him in something easier but wary given stables record in the race.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Alpine Eagle – Tab bet $11 Monday all in which was quickly hammered into $5. Those punters would be doing cartwheels. This race sets up perfectly for him and he’s the profile standout. Be on & back him to win the Cox Plate if you haven’t already.

BACK – PLACE – Gust Of Wind – $9.50 at Sportsbet to Place is big odds for a runner that has hit the line strongly at each start this campaign. Not sure she has the class to beat Alpine Eagle but has drawn perfectly in barrier 5.