The Betfair Insider: Emirates Stakes Day

Posted: November 6, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Emirates Stakes Day – Flemington, Saturday 7 September 2015

Track

Heavy 8

Rail +6m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 6th – Max 19. Cloudy, showers easing in the evening. 2-6mm

Saturday 7th – Max 19. Mostly Cloudy, 30% chance of showers. 0-0.2mm

 

R3 Queen’s Cup G3 2600m

Speed Map:

Queens Cup

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won at 2400m-2500 at their previous start

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Le Roi – SP $6.5 56.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

2nd – Prince Of Penzance – $4.6 58kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Big Memory – $5.5 58kg BR 3 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Precedence – SP $6.5 58kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

2nd – Sertorius – SP $4.2 fav 55.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Bendigo Cup Listed 2400m Bendigo

3rd – Let’s Make Adeal – SP $8 55.5kg BR 2 – 6th up, 1 week 5th Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +8m, Soft 5

1st – Puissance De Lune – SP $3 fav 54.5kg BR 7 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Bendigo Cup Listed 2400m Bendigo

2nd – Ironstein – SP $26 56kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 3rd MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Tanby – SP $21 56.5 BR 4 – 2nd up, 1 week 11th Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

 

2011 – Ironstein – SP $20 54kg BR 9 – 7th up, 3 weeks 5th City Tatts Listed 2400m Randwick

2010 – Moudre – SP $3.8 fav 55.5kg BR 1 – 7th up, 1 week 4th Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Beaten Up – Will box seat from barrier 1 here and comes through strong Sydney form lines. 4th in the G2 Hill Stakes to Preferment, 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan and beat home The Offer at his latest start in the Listed City Tattersalls Cup. Comes here off a 21 day freshen and his wet track form is better than it reads. Looks under the odds at $5.5 but it’s he’s not without a hope.

Dandino – Huge performance in the G1 Turnbull Stakes when forced to make a mid-race move from a wide barrier to be beaten under a length to Preferment. His last start performance in the G3 Geelong Cup was full of merit, trapped 3w with cover he still managed to run the 3rd fastest last 400 23.68 200 12.16 to claim 2nd behind Almoonqith who had every favour in running. The small field is to his advantage, but is a slight query if it’s too wet.

Secret Number – Godolphin stayer who narrowly missed a start in the Melbourne Cup. Will race handy to the speed mapping behind Bonfire. His UK form in 2013 is strong enough to make him a threat here, beaten only 3.8lengths in the G1 St Leger over 2900m. He’s only managed three starts since then which is concerning, but has won 2 of 3 both at 2400m in G3 or at listed level. He’s weighted up to his best here, provided he’s acclimatised he’s big chance and the wetter the better for him.

Bold Sniper – Produced strong mid race sectionals at his latest start in the G3 Moonee Valley Cup. They went 16 lengths above benchmark to the 600m mark so expect that run to have topped him off nicely for this. Winner of that race is the now Melbourne Cup Winner Prince Of Penzance. Has a tendency to over-race and hang so if he can eradicate that from his racing manners he’s over the odds at $9-10 in early markets.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – BOLD SNIPER – Looks primed 5th up and will handle soft surface. $10 value.

 

R6 Darley Classic G1 1200m

Speed Map:

darley classic

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 2 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 5 of past 5 winners have used G1 or G2 Manikato 1200m as lead up run
  • 3 of past 5 winners Colts or Geldings, Black Caviar only Mare (2010 &2011)
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been 4th up

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Terravista – SP $10 58.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Chautauqua – SP $2.45 fav 58.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, Freshened 5 weeks Gilgai G2 1200m Flemington

3rd – Lankan Rupee SP $5 58.5kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

 

2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $11 58.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Shamexpress – SP $18 58.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Moment Of Change – SP $9 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up,  2 weeks 4th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

 

2012 Rail +8m, Soft 5

1st – Mental – SP $7 58.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up,  2 weeks 2nd Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Sea Siren – SP $4 fav 56.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd Hallowell Belle – SP $14 56.5kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

 

2011 – Black Caviar – SP $1.05 fav 56.5kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Schweppes G2 1200m Moonee Valley

2010 – Black Caviar – SP $1.90 fav 56.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Schweppes G2 1200m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Buffering – Had conditions to suit last start in the G1 Manikato at Moonee Valley but was no match for the winner, beaten 3.55 lengths. Will handle sting out of ground and if Damien Browne can find the right lane on him he can sneak in for a place at best. Won this race 2 years ago but this looks a much stronger edition.

Chautauqua – Unbeaten at three starts this preparation and has freakish ability to win from almost any position in running. Clocked the fastest last 600 to win the G1 Manikato at his last start, home his last 600 34.00 400 23.20 200 11.74. They only went out 2.3 lengths above benchmark to the 600m but despite that could still overhaul the leaders.  This time last year proved he could sprint off a hot tempo to win the G2 Gilgai and was a narrow runner up in this race last year.  Has won 3 of 5 starts this track and trip. Won the G1 TJ Smith on a Soft 7 in autumn. Profile is slightly against horses 4th up.

Boban – Chris Waller unlocked the key to this gelding keeping him fresh since autumn to win the G1 Doomben 10,000 over 1350m and more recently the G1 Memsie Stakes 1400m. He races best off slow to moderate tempo races which is unlikely to be the case here. Of his 11 starts 9 of them have been on good tracks so anything worse than a soft 5 would end his chances.

Terravista – Jumped awkwardly last start and didn’t have clear running from the 400-100m mark in the G1 Manikato. Is a big track horse and needs plenty of time to wind up and won this race last year off similar circumstances. Loves sting out of the ground and profiles like the winner. Hugh Bowman will need to produce a gun ride from barrier one.

Delectation – Flying this time in. Had no luck last start in the G2 Sprint over 1200m last weekend at Flemington beaten 1.1 lengths to Éclair Choice. He was held up between the 400-200m mark with the race over when he could see daylight. The start prior he ran Chautauqua to a length in the G2 Gilgai stakes this track and trip running a blistering final 600m in 32.92 400 22.00 200 11.62 only bettered by the winner. With the track now a soft 6 and more rain forecast Friday he’s the runner that will be most advantaged in the best part of the track.

Srikandi – Great run 1st up in the G1 Manikato when wide throughout. She’s unbeaten on slow and heavy surfaces but needs to go to a new level to win here. The inside draw is heavily against her given the way the track is likely to be playing. She’s been backed but will need a brilliant ride.

Lumosty – Desperately unlucky not to win 1st up in the G2 Caulfield Sprint when suffered severe interference 250-200m from the winning post. She dead heated with Éclair Choice for 1st, recording a devastating last 600m in 33.44 400 22.48 200 11.16. Her first two runs last preparation at Flemington were simply outstanding, running sub 22 second last 400s. She’s drawn perfectly in barrier 10 and I’ve marked her clear 3rd favourite.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – DelectationI’ve rated him $11. $18-19 is great value in early markets.

BACK – WIN – LumostyHas the most upside, I’ve marked her second favourite at $7.

 

R7 Emirates Stakes G1 1600m

Speed Map:

Emirates Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 2 of past 5 winners have used Cox Plate as lead up run
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have started in barrier 9 or closer

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Hucklebuck – SP $10 55.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st Yellowglen Group 3 1400m Flemington

2nd – Lucky Hussler – SP $7 55kg BR 13 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd – The Cleaner – SP $16 58kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

 

2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Boban – SP $4.6 fav 57kg BR 3 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Somkin’ Joey – SP $21 52.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 1 week 1st TAB.com.au Stakes G3 1400m Flemington

3rd – Speediness – SP $9 55kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Crystal Mile G2 1600m Moonee Valley

 

2012 Rail +8m, Soft 5

1st – Happy Trails – SP $13 58kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 10th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Fawkner – SP $4.8 fav 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 1 week 1st TAB.com.au Stakes G3 1400m Flemington

3rd – Secret Admirer – SP $14 57kg BR 16 – 7th up, 1 week 3rd Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

 

2011 – Albert The Fat – SP $17 54kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 Weeks 2nd Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

2010 – Wall Street – SP $6 fav 55.5kg BR 9 – 5th up, 3 weeks 7th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Lucky Hussler – Impossible to knock all 4 starts this preparation and will appreciate speed on. Profile is against horses up in weights and this shapes as a high rating renewal of the race. He’ll get a dream run in transit but prefer him at smaller turning tracks and on good rated tracks.

Arod – World Class miler who looked poorly placed in the G1 Cox Plate. He went forward early sitting outside The Cleaner. He never looked comfortable running 15 lengths above the benchmark to the 600m mark. He’ll push across from a wide gate and lead or sit outside Turn Me Loose. I expect him to improve dramatically and $11 in early markets looks big overlay.  Ran 2nd to The Grey Gatsby in the G2 Dante Stakes in May last year on a soft track so don’t rule him out on rain affected ground.

Turn Me Loose – Undefeated at 1600m and did it both ends in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start. Had the right barrier and track bias played heavily his advantage but did set a hot tempo to the 600m mark 13 lengths above benchmark. Meets Bow Creek 1.5kgs worse at the weights but the wet track evens things up for him.

Bow Creek – Hard not to be impressed by his first Australian start in the G2 Crystal Mile last start beaten half a length to Turn Me Loose.  Was slowly away so will need to jump cleanly here to take up a good position with some other speed drawn to his outside. His last 200m was eye catching but he did have speed on to suit. Mounting yard watches reported him to be large in condition so expect improvement. He hasn’t seen many wet tracks but his breeding suggests he will handle it.

Magic Artist – Failed to quicken in the G1 Bayerisches in Munich under 60kgs beaten 2.25 lengths 5th two starts ago. The changed to the Andreas Wohler’s yard a positive one, producing a big performance off a 97 day break when unlucky not to win last Saturdays G1 Mackinnon Stakes 2000m. He was held up multiple times in the straight beaten a length. He still managed the fastest last 200 split in 11.92 albeit in the fast lane. He’s never won at 1600m or on a soft track.

Ecuador – Two starts back beaten only 2.3 lengths to Winx in the Epsom with 56kg. Followed that up with 6th in the Mackinnon after being stopped in his tracks 350m from home. When clear he kept grinding away and if the track stays wet he could be the last man standing at huge odds.

Amovatio – Run in the Crystal Mile much better than it appeared when few horses made ground from well back. He didn’t profile well for that run and his mid race sectionals suggest he’ll come on significantly 3rd up to a mile here. Drops 6kg from WFA and if they go to too hard in front he’ll fly late. Knockout.

Politeness – Amazing training performance from Robert Smerdon to turn this mare around from a disappointing autumn preparation. Handled the rise from 1200m to 1600m to win the G1 Myer with ease. Last two wins have been off 3 week breaks making the week back up some query.  Drops 4kg now taking on the males but looks well found at $11-12 in early markets.

Rock Sturdy – Has been in great form this preparation. His first two starts beaten around 2 lengths to class sprinter’s Rebel Dane and Terravista over the unsuitable distances of 1100 and 1200m. Didn’t handle Caulfield but was an OK run in the G3 Moogna Stakes which is a proven lead up run for this. Backed up a week later in the Fliante Handicap at Randwick when wide beaten under a length to Frespanol carrying 60kgs. He did plenty of work early and if he can get cover off a wide gate here he’s well in with 52.5kg.  Has been $9.50 into $6.50 to place which is still OK value.

 

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Arod – Happy to back him at $10-12 on a Soft 6 or better.

BACK – PLACE – Rock Sturdy – Early punters are set at $9.50. $5+ is still good value.

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying!

The Betfair Insider

 

Related Articles:

The Rating Bureau: Darley Classic

The Rating Bureau: Emirates Stakes

The Trial Files: Emirates Stakes Day