THE BETFAIR INSIDER
Caulfield, Wednesday 14 October 2015
Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au
Wednesday 14th – Max 27. Patchy fog then a sunny day
Profiling the race we learn the following:
- 2 of past 3 winners have been SP favourites (2013 favourite 2nd Safeguard)
- 3 of past 3 winners are last start winners
- 3 of past 3 winners have started in barrier 5 or closer
- 2 of past 3 winners fillies (both SP Favourites)
Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 Rail True, Good 3
1st – Eloping – SP $3.50 fav 55kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Champagne Stakes G3 1200m M Valley
2nd – Sultry Feeling – SP $9.50 55kg BR 5 – 4th up, 4 weeks 5th Tea Rose G2 1400m Randwick
3rd – Husson Eagle SP $5.5 57kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st Mdn SW 17.5k 1100m Bendigo
2013 Rail True, Good 4
1st – Lion Of Belfort – SP $8 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO C & G SWP 100k 1200m M Valley
2nd – Safeguard – SP $4.60 fav 57kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington
3rd – Diamond Oasis – SP $14 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 wks 2nd Heritage Stakes Listed 1100m Randwick
2012 Rail True, Good 4
1st – Snitzerland – SP $1.95 fav 55kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 wks 1st Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington
2nd – Fire Thunderbolt – SP $18 57kg BR 5 – 1st up (1x Trial), 27 weeks 1st Streets Listed 1000m Flem
3rd – Lankan Rupee – SP $5.00 57kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st 3Y- SWP 80k 1000m Caulfield
Kinglike – Impressive winner 1st up in G2 Danehill Stakes home his last 600 33.60 400 22.62 200 11.64. Arguably giving away a fitness edge to his rivals on that occasion and think he’ll be even more suited around a bend and back to his home track. Race tempo looks no issue, leaders are likely to get off the fence, meaning splits will come for him. Profiles as the winner.
Haptic – Sydney colt who ran a big race 1st up in the G3 San Domenico Stakes beaten 1.5 lengths to Japonisme. Fought hard 2nd up in Heritage stakes beaten 1.5 2nd to Counterattack. Won twice as a 2yo in similar company on Good rated surfaces. Will have to work early to lead which may be the difference between winning and losing.
Keen Array – Had race run to suit 4th up at The Valley winning 100k race over the consistent Mawahibb. Ran comparative splits to older horses that night and has genuine class. Not knocking his ability but unsure he has the same level of improvement left in himself this deep into his preparation. Maps well and is a strong chance, but wait to back him as I’m confident he’ll drift early.
Raphael’s Cat – Strong performance 2nd up in G2 Danehill stakes when run down late by Kinglike. They went out 10+ lengths above the benchmark and he stuck on gamely. Has drawn barrier 7 so will be forced to work early. I won’t be laying him at the price.
Mogador – Came off the speed to win a BM75 1st up against older (average) horses 3 weeks ago at Warwick Farm. Showed a good turn off foot to win off an average speed home his last 600 32.92 400 22.08 200 11.07. Needs to step up again here.
LAY – E/W – Mogador – Doesn’t fit the profile of winner. Maps well back off a wide gate and looks well found at $3.00 against some very smart colts. Will trade close to double that price ‘In Play’.