The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 26 September 2015

Posted: September 25, 2015 at 10:33 am

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

 

Caulfield, Saturday 26 September 2015

Track

Good 3

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 25th – Max 17. Partly cloudy with light winds.

Saturday 26th – Max 20. Mostly sunny with light winds.

 

R6 BECK Caulfield Guineas Prelude G2 3yo C&G SW+ 1400m

Speed Map:

Caulfield Guineas Prelude

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have used G2 Danehill Stakes or G1 Golden Rose as lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourite
  • 5 of past 4 winners have finished top 3 at lead up run, 3 of 5 last start winners
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 57 kg or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or less

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Rich Enuff – SP $3.70 57.5kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – Looks Like The Cat – SP $3.10 fav 55kg BR 6 –  2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

3rd – Awesome Rock – SP $8.50 55kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +9m, Soft 6

1st – Éclair Big Bang – SP $13 55kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 3rd Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – El Roca – SP $14 55kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Challenge Listed 39k 1200m Ruakaka NZ

3rd – Long John – SP $3.00 fav 57kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Exford Stakes Listed 1400m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +9m, Good 4

1st – Epaulette – SP $2 fav 58.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2nd – Let Go Lenni – SP $18 55kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st MDN-SW 15k 1100m Kilmore

3rd – Awesome Bro – SP $8.50 55kg BR 8 – 5th up, 3 weeks 2nd Henry Bucks Listed 1400m Flemington

 

2011 – Helmet – SP $2.60 fav 58.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2010 – Anacheeva – SP $10 55.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 4 wk freshen 1st McKenzie Stks Listed 1200m MV

 

Major Players:

Dal Cielo – pushed forward 1st up in the Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka. He had run of the race but looked to peak at the 200m mark but found again to box on ok. Won the G1 Diamond Stakes over 1200m as a 2yo and placed 3rd in the Karaka Millions prior to that. El Roca placed in this race 3rd up, coming off a similar break in his first ever preparation. Dal Cielo is two weeks between runs and blinkers applied for the first time should sharpen him up as will a Good track.

Ready For Victory – Profiles strongest for the race with good 2nd up performance in the G2 Danehill stakes last start home last 600 33.43 400 22.68 200 11.64. Gets back in his races so barrier 9 not as bad as it seems despite race profile being strongly against wide runners. 1400m is a slight query, last preparation beaten 5.5 lengths at his 3rd career start in the Group 1 Sires Produce to Pride Of Dubai. Blinkers off this start and couldn’t entertain anything less than $5 if backing him. D-Day.

Metallic Crown – progressive colt and last start winner of G3 Ming Dynasty over 1400m. Has never reeled off dazzling time but is never far away. Drawn poorly in barrier 15 and this isn’t as strong as preludes gone by. His first two career starts finished close to Sebring Sun & Devil Hawk which warrants respect.

Last Bullet – did plenty wrong 2nd up in G2 Danehill Stakes after missing start, then ridden out until 300m mark before being checked severely? Still only beaten 5.1 lengths which is hard to believe. Has blinkers again but needs to improve sharply. Looks to have plenty of talent and maps to get a soft run in transit. Has been $61 into $21 in early markets.

Snoopy – has tactical speed to map in the box seat here. Won his first 3 starts impressively before a luckless 4th last start in the Listed Exford Plate over 1400m at Flemington. He was squeezed out 400m from home to only get clear 150m from the line. He had plenty to give and Caulfield looks well suited. He’s rock hard fit and will look the winner a long way out.

Mr Individual – Another erratic colt who scored well last start in a BM64 at Pakenham. His 1st up performance in the G3 HDF McNeil stakes highlighted the colt’s ability. 3 wide throughout running, beaten under 3 lengths to Gold Symphony. Maps well but think he’ll be a much better horse in autumn.

Spieth – Chased smart filly Secret Agenda home on debut at Sandown 4 weeks ago recording fast closing splits last 600 32.78 400 21.40 200 10.96. Backed that performance up with a soft win at a recent Pakenham maiden. Will need to take another big step here but Craig Williams sticks and trainer is good with colts.

TulsaVery impressive 2nd up performance in the Exford Plate over 1400m at Flemington. He drew the widest barrier and was restrained back to last on the fence. Wound up 200m from home weaving through traffic to his last 400 22.48 200 11.04. Is likely to be taken back off a wide draw and with genuine tempo engaged will fly late. Needs to find the back of Spieth or Ready for victory.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Snoopy – tactical speed and race manners puts him a mile in front of most of these. Looks an even race outside the favourite and happy to take anything >$10.

BACK – WIN – Dal Cielo – has better credentials than 2013 runner up El Roca and this doesn’t look the strongest prelude renewal. Like Snoopy gets dream run in transit making the $21 look a big over.

LAY – E/W – Bon AurumHas drawn barrier 12 and will be forced to work early in the race. Is 6th up into this race and will be found wanting 200m from the post.

 

R7 Underwood Stakes G1 Handicap 1800m

Speed Map:

Underwood Stakes

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 2nd up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have started from barrier 6 or less
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • Cox Plate challengers come to the fore

NB: Makybe Diva Stakes is now the 2 week break into Underwood Stakes.

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Foreteller – SP $6.50 59kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

2nd – Happy Trails – SP $10 59kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 8th Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Crackerjack King – SP $51 BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

 

2013 Rail +9m, Soft 6

1st – It’s A Dundeel – SP $5.00 58kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Memsie G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.60 Fav 57kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st Stocks Stks G2 1600m M Valley

3rd – Dear Demi – SP $71 56kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Let’s Elope G2 1400m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +9m, Good 4

1st – Ocean Park – SP $8 58kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Makfi Challenge G1 1400m Hastings NZ

2nd – Voila Ici – SP $31 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up 3 weeks 2nd Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – December Draw – SP $20 59 kg BR 13 –  2nd up, 2 weeks 8th Makybe Diva G1 1600m Flemington

 

2011 – Lion Tamer – SP $16 58kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Makfi Challenge G1 1400m Hastings NZ

2010 – So You Think – SP $1.75 fav BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Fawkneris the profile standout and very lightly raced 8yo that is going as good as ever. Won Makybe Diva 1st up running his last 600 33.16 400 21.70 200 11.08. WOW. He’s the champion of the field deserving to be on the recent winners honour roll. Maps perfectly and hard to beat.

Sertorius – set for the Melbourne Cup and ran very well in the G1 Memsie 1st up which reads well for this. He’s had a virus so not sure they will be out to win here but if there’s a complete blowout the profile suggest it’s him.

The Cleaner – what you see is what you get. He will improve off his G1 Dato Tan Chin Nam win and he’ll need to be meeting most of these runner’s now without a fitness edge. Gets every favour from barrier 1 but the step up in grade is likely to find him out. Can run a place.

Contributer – I’m convinced he’s not a Moonee Valley horse after his 1st up defeat 5th to The Cleaner. His track gallop during the week at MV was also lack lustre and I’d be surprised if he raced there again. He went to a new level 2nd and 3rd up last time in so expect him to improve sharply at Caulfield without winning.

Mongolian Khan – resumed impressively in the G1 Makybe Diva 7th beaten only 1.55 lengths to Fawkner. He maps well here but given he’s on a Caulfield Cup/ Melbourne Cup path I expect him to sprout here (need the run), peaking 3rd or 4th up.

Volkstok’n’barrel – was underdone in G1 Memsie 1st up but hit the line well after suffering mild interference. 2nd up G1 Makybe Diva stakes 14 of 14th, pushed forward then box seated and denied clear running 200m out from home. He coasted to the line his last 400 22.44 200 11.36,  he pulled up unharmed from that run. Drawn off the fence in barrier 7 and will get a nice cart in off the back of Dibayani. Big chance.

Hi World – hard to get a line through this runner. Left flat footed 1st up in the G1 Memsie stakes but boxed on to run 5th. Lacked acceleration 2nd up in the Makybe Diva Stakes beaten only 2.2 lengths to Fawkner. Suspect he’s come on fitness wise but trainer has eluded to fact it may all be coming on to quickly for him. This run D- Day for him but think he’s ultimately a 1600m handicapper.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Fawkner – He’s won 4 of 6 second up, loves Caulfield. I’d take anything >$3.

BACK – WIN – Volkstok’n’barrel – Race will be run to suit, I’d take anything >$9

 

R8 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes G1 Handicap 1400m

Speed Map:

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4yo’s
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd or 4th up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 1 of past 5 winners was a Mare (2010 Response)

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Trust In A Gust – SP $6 Fav 52kg BR 9 – 4th up, 1 week 1st 80k Handicap 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Dissident – SP $6.5 58kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Makybe Diva G1 1600m Flemington

3rd – Bull Point – SP $10 52kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail +9m, Soft 6

1st – Rebel Dane – SP $ 5.50 Fav 55.5kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flem

2nd – Fontelina – SP $18 55kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 9th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flemington

3rd – Solzhenitsyn – SP $7.5 57.5kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

 

2012 Rail +9m, Good 4

1st – Moment Of Change – SP $4.40 fav 52.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up, 3rd Tramway G3 1400m Warwick Farm

2nd – We’re Gunna Rock – SP $7.50 55.5kg BR  9 – 2nd up, 3 wk 1st Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flemington

3rd – Solzhenitsyn – SP $6.00 53kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Hcp 50k 1350m Doomben

 

2011 – Toorak Toff – SP $12 56.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 5th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flemington

2010 – Response – SP $4.80 53.5 kg BR 5 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Let’s Elope G2 1400m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Lucky Hussler – Obviously at a new level with Darren Weir, including a G1 victory in the William Reid stakes. Then beaten only 1.2lengths 2nd up in the G1 All Aged Stakes over 1400m. This time it comes through Bobbie Lewis G2 beaten only 1.3lengths which is the perfect lead up run. Will be buried in the fence in transit and can run the splits to win the race if lucks is on his side.

Cosmic Endeavour – Class mare who looks to be close to her best. Posted wide 2nd up in the G2 Let’s Elope and stuck on gamely running home last 600 33.63 400 22.41 200 11.55 maps to get a better run in transit here and despite giving weight to some class colts she’s over the odds. Won 3 of 5 starts at 1400m.

Strawberry Boy – Great performance 1st up in Theo Marks 4th beaten only 0.6 to Winx. Will be forced to work early but can find cover. Not sure barrier 17 and race tempo will suit him despite it looking like his Grand Final.

Rich Enuff – fits profile 3rd up through the Bobbie Lewis and meets the other 4yo’s worse off at the weights due to strong spring campaign this time last year. Needs to find the back of Leebaz or Strawberry boy and be ridden with some cover from a disastrous drawn in 22. Has Australia’s best jockey on board in James McDonald.

Under The Louvre – Underrated galloper that will be suited to strong tempo up front. Comes here after a slashing 2nd up run in the Bobbie Lewis, was narrowly beaten 2nd breaking the clock home last 600 32.34 400 21.68 200 11.16. His 1400m record is better than it reads and traffic is his only worry here.

Amicus – Meets Cosmic Endeavour 1kg better despite beating her last start in the G2 Let’s Elope over 1400m at Flemington. Has won up to 1600m so high pressure 1400m will suit. I can’t see her any better than 3w so will be against her in this class, she is flying though.

Stratum Star – Looks the profile standout coming into the race 3rd up as the class 4yo from the G1 Memsie beaten only 0.2 lengths. Drops 4 kg here which suits but only negative is drawing barrier 18. Craig Williams is the man for the job. Off a 28 day break will fly.

Disposition – Comes into race 2nd up after strong 1st up win in Listed Sofitel carrying 55kg. Didn’t beat much but run his last 600 33.38 400 22.16 200 11.44. Lightly raced 9 starts 5 wins 3 seconds 0 thirds. Gets similar conditions to his 2nd v Wandjina in the G3 CS Hayes stakes where he stalked leaders, the difference is this time he’s not fresh. Clear running only negative.

Fast ‘N’ Rocking – Comes into race ideally 3rd up with 6kg weight drop after a strong performance to in-form Fell Swoop. Will get a soft run in transit and race run to suit. Loves Caulfield but 1400m is the biggest concern. Place best chance.

Gregers – fits the profile coming here 3rd up and through the G2 Bobbie Lewis. Drawn to get a great run in transit. Won Thousand Guineas this track and trip as a 3yo filly but think she’s better suited to 1200m.

Petrology– races better at Caulfield than his form suggests. Drops 6.5 kgs from G1 WFA Memsie stakes run when finished off ok. His sectionals were a little disappointing home last 600 35.76 400 23.88 200 12.10.  28 day break a big plus? Maps well back but will fly late. Is a 4yo and has been $51 into $34.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Stratum StarProfile screams 4yo’s and loved his G1 Memsie performance when forced wide on the turn. Has been freshened at $7-8 is a fair price.

BACK – WIN – PetrologyAnother 4yo freshened from the G1 Memsie and suited by tempo. $34 is still value.

LAY – E/W – Charmed Harmony – Happy to lay it up E/W despite a strong 1400m record this a big rise in grade and will be under immense pressure 200m from home. Weighted poorly. I’d be inclined to lay this runner ‘In-Play’ also.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

*Speed maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au