The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 17 October

Posted: October 16, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Caulfield, Saturday 17 October 

 

Track

Good 3

Rail +6m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 16th – Max 23. Mostly cloudy, 60% chance of showers 0 to 1mm

Saturday 17th – Max 20. Cloudy, 70% chance of showers 1 to 5mm

 

R3 Dilmah Single Origin Teas Caulfield Sprint G2 Handicap 1000m

Speed Map:

caulfield sprint

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5kg or less

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +6m, Good 3

=1st – Miracles Of Life – SP $12 59kg BR 5 – 1st up, 21 weeks 16th The Goodwood G1 1200m Morphettville

=1st – Bel Sprinter – SP $7 56kg BR 4 – 1st up, 21 weeks 10th The Goodwood G1 1200m Morphettville

3rd – Shamal Wind – $6 55 BR 8 – 2nd up,  1 week 3rd Northwood Plume G3 1200m Caulfield

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Spirt Of Boom – SP $7 58kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Gilgai G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – Shamal Wind – SP $6.5 53kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 5th Northwood Plume G3 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Ready To Rip – SP $ 10 58kg BR 6 – 1st up, 22 weeks 6th BRC Sprint G3 1350m Doomben

 

2012 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Howmuchdoyouloveme – SP $3.5 fav 54.5kg BR 2 – 1st up, 14 weeks 1st Ramornie 1200m Grafton

2nd – Canail – SP $10 55kg BR 5 – 1st up, 4 weeks 3rd HCP 1100m Caulfield

3rd – Latin News – SP $26 BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd HCP 1200m Eagle Farm

 

2011 – Sepoy – SP $1.22 fav 55.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato G1 1200m Moonee Valley  

2010 – Set For Fame – SP $4.40 54kg BR 7 –  1st up, 16 weeks 5th Winter Stakes G1 1400m Eagle Farm

 

Major Players:

Ball Of Muscle – Has found one better at all three starts this preparation. Narrowly defeated by Buffering most recently in the G1 Moir Stakes over 1000m after box seating from barrier 1. He’s likely to lead or sit outside Rain Affair and give a big kick off the turn. This looks an easier race for him but I don’t think he’s well weighted.

Kuro – Has taken a while to come to hand this preparation which is unusual for a sprinter coming off a Queensland winter carnival. Drops 4kg after narrowly beaten by Sabatini last start at Caulfield over 1100m in a 90K Handicap. They ran pretty good time that day and he worked hard in the run. He’s drawn slightly awkwardly in barrier 7 but he’s weighted to win.

Lumosty – Star mare capable of breathtaking final 400 splits. Last preparation 1st up she broke the clock running home her last 600 32.53 400 21.47 200 11.20 over 1100m at Flemington. That tells me she’s a genuine fresh horse and 1000m won’t be an issue for her despite only stepping out at this distance on debut. No breakneck speed engaged here but the small field keeps her within striking distance.

Headwater – Looks to be a 1000m horse and was good behind Buffering in the G1 Moir Stakes last start. He meets Ball Of Muscle 1.5kg worse from the Moir but will box seat to get every favour here. Best roughie.

Kinglike – Won the G2 Danehill Stakes 1200m Flemington 1st up off a fast first 600m section when field went 10+ lengths above the benchmark. He came home his last 600 33.60 400 22.62 200 11.64. He should make this grade, but 1200m back to 1000m is of some concern. Danehill Stakes recent honour roll includes Rich Enuff, Charlie Boy, Snitzerland, Sepoy, Black Caviar. I won’t be laying him.

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Ball Of Muscle – Profile against horses up in weights and deep into prep. Looks a great lay <$4 which looks possible. Will trade short ‘In Play’ so could open up another great opportunity to lay him again.

 

R5 Caulfield Classic G3 3YO SW 2000m

Speed Map:

caulfield classic

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 1 of past 5 winners a Filly (2014 Fontein Ruby)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their lead up run
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourite

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +6m, Good 3

1st – Fontein Ruby – SP $13 55kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st E Manifold G2 1600m Flemington

2nd – Crafty – SP $6 55kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 3rd E Manifold G2 1600m Flemington

3rd – Firehouse Rock – SP $51 57kg – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th UCI Stakes 1800m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Polanski – SP $6 57kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st UCI Stakes 1800m Flemington

2nd – San Diego – SP $4.40 fav 56kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 6th Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd – Epic Saga – SP $11 56kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Super Impose Listed 1800m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Hvasstan – SP $6 56kg BR 2 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd UCI Stakes 1800m Flemington

2nd – Honorius – SP $6.5 56kg BR3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Champion Stakes G1 2000m Randwick

3rd – Electric Fusion – SP $8.50 56kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st MDN 17.5 k 1533m Moonee Valley

 

2011 – Sabrage – SP $9 55kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley

2010 – Retrieve – SP $2.10 fav 57 kg BR 1 – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd Spring Champions G1 2000m Randwick

 

Major Players:

Lizard Island – Got a cheap run along the fence last start in the G1 Caulfield Guineas beaten only 1.75 lengths to Press Statement. The fence was clearly off so happy to bonus that performance. Comes here 6th up and backing up a week later, very unusual preparation. Biggest problem is the wide draw. Confident he drifts from $5 in early markets but not without a winning chance.

Shards – Settled back last start in the Caulfield Guineas and was checked badly around the 1200m mark. Was set alight 600m from home but struggled to work into the race. He’s drawn barrier 6 here and will map 1 or 2 pairs back from the lead. Is starting to look dour so will need to be stoked up early to be a winning chance. Improver boasting superior from to most. D-Day.

Ayers Rock – Huge run two starts ago to finish 2nd in the Morphettville Guineas after going back and working home strong out wide running last 200 in 11.86. Positive from a good draw last start winning the UCI Stakes over 1800m at Flemington. Although he got some cheap sectionals from the 800-400m mark. He’s the likely leader here again and if he can run a strong 2000m he can be in the finish.

Get The Picture – Last start 2nd in the G2 Stutt Stakes, set alight 800m from home, the widest runner posting strong sectionals including the fastest last 200m 12.04. He profiles strongly coming here 5th up and will drop well back needing another long swooping run to win here.

Éclair Attack – Last start winner of 3YO BM 70 race at Morphettville over 1550m. Had a soft run throughout running his last 600 34.40 400 22.46 200 11.60. They went slow early so may not map as forward as last start and off a 21 day break he may be one run short of his best. Hard to oppose at price, bred to stay and Phillip Stokes places his horses as good as any trainer in Australia.

Tivaci – Hype galloper who looked the winner of the UCI Stakes until he blew out his last 100m after being trapped wide early. Was quick from the 800-200m in that race but really paddled late. Gets run of the race from barrier 1 mapping in behind the leaders. Profiles well for the race and should be ready now. D-Day.

Etymology – Well out of his ground off a wide draw in the UCI Stakes and hit the line OK. Maps to get a softer run in transit here and profiles well for the race. Likely improver and I wouldn’t be laying him at his early market price $17.

Ragnaar – Accelerated off a slow tempo to score at a Bendigo maiden over 1400m at his 1st start in Australia. 2nd up in the G2 Stutt Stakes a total forgive run when struggling to see much daylight until final 150m. Has tactical speed to lead here and will look the winner a long way from home. Comes here 3rd up which is against the profile. This run looks to be the perfect conditioning run for the Derby with his last 100m here a query.

Sacred Eye – Enjoyed a soft run in transit last start in G2 Edward Manifold Stakes and only got clear running 400m from home. Winner Badawiya was off and going by that stage and despite little momentum Sacred Eye sprinted strongly, home her last 400 22.16 200 11.44. Her final splits at all 3 career starts suggest she’s a class filly. She profiles well for the race and only needs cover and clear running to win here.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Sacred Eye – I’m confident she will SP closer to $3.50 on The Exchange. $4 early can be taken and either traded back ‘Pre Play’ or ‘In Play’. I expect her to trade odds on in run.

 

R8 Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 4yo + Mares SWP 1400m

Speed Map:

tristarc stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 57.5kg or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2nd up
  • 5 of past 5 winners raced at Group Level in their lead up run
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners Sydney trained Mares ( Sweet Idea, Red Tracer, Streama & More Joyous)

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail +6m, Good 3

1st – Sweet Idea – SP $3.40 fav 57.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Girl Guide – SP 6 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 1 week 2nd Northwood Plume G3 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Catkins – SP $4 57.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Golden Pendant G3 1400m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Red Tracer – SP $3.9 fav 58kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd Golden Pendant G3 1400m Rosehill

2nd – Koonoomoo – SP $31 56.5kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Northwood Plume G3 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Ava’s Delight – SP $41 55kg BR 8 – 1st up, 5 weeks Stocks G2 1600m Moonee Valley

 

2012 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Streama – SP $10 58kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Premiere Stakes G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Pear Tart – $15 58kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Premiere Stakes G2 1200m Randwick

3rd – Red Tracer – $5 57 kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Premiere Stakes G2 1200m Randwick

 

2011 – More Joyous – SP $1.85 fav 58.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Manikato Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

2010 – Culminate – SP $12 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Blazer G3 1400m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Amicus – Resumed in terrific order winning G3 Toy Show 1300m, backed that performance up with strong win in G2 Let’s Elope 1400m home last 600 33.18 400 21.94 200 11.26. She was forced wide in the G1 Rupert Clarke 1400m at her latest start where she was reported to have ‘jarred up’.  Dropping back to mares grade off a 3 week freshen suits and 1400m looks to be her sweet spot.

Catkins – Was 3rd in this race last year of similar preparation. Big winner 1st up in G3 Sheraco Stakes over her pet distance of 1200m. Beaten 3.4 lengths 2nd up in the Golden Pendant finishing 5th to Peeping, no abnormalities found on that occasion, but happy to forgive. That race a proven lead up race for the Tristarc, I expect her to bounce back and be in the finish with not a huge amount of speed engaged. $3.20 in early markets looks rock bottom though and expect her to drift heavily and firm late.

Gregers – Can’t knock any of her 3 performances this preparation. Pinned late in the G2 Bobbie Lewis against the males 2nd up beaten 0.2 lengths. Finished 10th in G1 Rupert Clarke beaten only 2.65 lengths. Loves Caulfield winning 3 of 9 starts. Not huge speed engaged so can cross and lead comfortably. If track is playing leaders she becomes a genuine chance.

Hazard – Well documented run of horror alleys and continues to hit the line strongly without breaking through. Gets a chance to atone here from barrier 3 and should sit in first three pairs. Not sure the winner can come from much further back than that. She’s won 3 of 9 at 1400m, loves Caulfield and can drop a last 200m split to put herself in the frame here. $13-14 looks overs in early markets.

Sabatini – Lightly raced mare with electric turn of foot. Won well 1st up in 1100m handicap which seemed an odd place to resume such a high class mare. Her sectionals suggest she’s close to career best form home her last 600 33.60 400 22.52 200 11.48 coming home 10 lengths above the benchmark in that event. Has been kept fresh with 21 day break, can win but tempo will be against her.

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Catkins – $3.20 in early markets is grossly under the odds. I’ve rated her closer to $5.

 

R9 BMW Caulfield Cup G1 Handicap 2400m

Speed Map:

caulfield cup

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners used Turnbull Stakes as lead up run, Other 2 International 1st up
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP Favourite
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare (2011 Southern Speed – 4th Turnbull Stakes)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 6yo+
  • 2 of past 2 International winners carried 58kg (2014 Admire Rakti & 2012 Dunaden)

 

2014 – Rail +6m, Good 3

1st – Admire Rakti 7yo Horse – SP $11 58kg BR 7 – 1st up 24 weeks, 13th Tenno Sho G1 3200m Kyoto

2nd – Rising Romance – SP $12 56kg BR 14 – 2 weeks, 2nd Craven Plate G3 2000m Randwick

3rd – Lucia Valentina – SP $4 fav 53kg  BR 10 – 2 weeks, 1st Turnbull Stakes g1 2000m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Fawkner 6 yo Gelding – SP $11 55kg BR 10 – 2 weeks, 3rd Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

2nd – Dandino – SP $11 56.5kg BR 16 – 9 weeks, 2nd USA St Ledger 382k 2700m Arlington

3rd – Dear Demi –SP $11 53kg BR 18 – 2 weeks, 8th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

 

2012 Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Dunaden 7 yo Horse – SP $14 58kg BR 18 – 1st up 13 weeks, 6th King George VI G1 2400m Ascot

2nd – Alcopop – SP $16 52.5kg BR 8 – 1 week, 2nd Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Lights Of Heaven – SP$11 53kg BR 7 – 4 weeks, 3rd Hill Stakes G1 2000m Randwick

 

2011 – Southern Speed 4 yo Mare – SP $10 52.5kg BR 3 – 2 weeks, 4th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

2010 – Descarado 6 yo Gelding – SP $17 52.5kg BR 15 – 2 weeks, 14th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Protectionist – Would prefer to see him hitting the line with more vigour than his last start 13th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes beaten 3.75 lengths over 2000m. There’s been no major spikes in his mid-race sectionals to indicate a better result here although his record at 2400m or beyond is strong. Off the profile you’d rather be with him than against at 50/1, it’s well and truly D-Day.

Snow Sky – Highly rated international 2400m specialist. Two starts ago won the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot by 3.75 lengths defeating Eagle Top (GB). Followed up with 6th placing beaten 6.75 lengths in the G1 King George at Ascot on a soft rated surface. Good track stats read 10 starts 4 wins 1 second 2 thirds so firm Caulfield surface ideal. Has drawn barrier 3, Damien Oliver booked and if the tempo is anything like last year he’ll be storming home. The standout international runner.

Fame Game – Plenty of Hype around this galloper and you only need to watch his G1 Tenno Sho 2nd placing to understand why. The issue for this bloke is that his best performances are 3000m+. He’s also drawn barrier one so will be buried back on the fence along way off them. Expect Zac Purton to find the back on Snow Sky and track him into the race. He could be the last man standing but most likely be the ‘flashing light’ eye catching Melbourne cup trial. Has been $8-10 early and I expect him to drift further.

Our Ivanhowe – Love the way this galloper is progressing from a Melbourne Cup point of view. Drops 4kg from his Bart Cummings 2nd placing and will drop out to the tail from gate 17 rattling home late. Looks an out and out Flemington horse and this run will top him off for the Melbourne Cup. Place chance.

Hokko Brave – All wins have come between 2200m-2600m. Looks well in at 55.5kg and races well on Good to Firm surfaces. Hasn’t won since October 2013 in his lead up preparation to the 2013 Japan Cup when beaten only 3.3 lengths to Gentildonna carrying 57kg. Last start he ran Gold Ship to 1.8 lengths in the G1 Tenno Sho over 3200m which is out of his comfort zone. Chance but needs a Craig Williams gem from gate 19 and I expect him to be $20 on race day.  If I was Craig Williams I’d be going forward on him.

Mongolian Khan – NZ & ATC derby winner in autumn who hasn’t put a foot wrong this preparation. His three runs at G1 level in the Makybe Diva, Underwood Stakes & Caulfield Stakes all first class beaten less than 2 lengths on every occasion. Got shuffled back in running, last start in the Caulfield stakes and popped the fastest last 200m split of the race in 11.52. Finally gets to his derby winning trip of 2400m and on the 7 day back up is the obvious horse to beat. $4.4-$5 max looks to be his likely BSP.

Who Shot Thebarman – Has run strong splits at all three starts this preparation indicating he’s close to his career best form and rise in distance is what he’s looking for. He carried 59kg in the BMW in autumn when 4th beaten 2 lengths to Hartnell. He’s thrown in here with 54.5kg, dropping 2kg from his Turnbull Stakes defeat of only 1.95 lengths. Fits the profile and $34 in early markets looks double his right price despite mapping poorly.

Grand Marshall – 2015 Sydney Cup winner in autumn. Dropped out to the tail last start in G3 Craven Plate at WFA. Drops from 59kg to 53.5 which helps improves his chances. Has drawn barrier 6 and I expect Jim Cassidy to be positive and sit in the first half of the field. He lacks the turn of foot to beat the Hauraki’s & Mongolian Khan’s of the world at this trip so needs a positive and aggressive ride from the draw. Melb Cup trial.

Royal Descent – This mare is simply flying! Impossible to fault all four starts this preparation beaten 0.5 lengths 3rd up to Kermadec in the G1 George Main. Last start beaten 0.1 lengths to Preferment in the G1 Turnbull Stakes although she meets most from that race worse off at the weights here. Her 2400m record is strong, 2013 ATC Oaks winner by 10 lengths and 2013 Caulfield Cup beaten 1.8 lengths to Fawkner. She was gallant this autumn in the G1 QE over 2000m beaten 3.8 lengths by Criterion. Although drawn awkwardly in barrier 22 I’d rather be with her than against her.

Volkstok’nbarrel – Went from a 1200m maiden August 14 to a Rosehill Guineas winner March 2015 with only a 10 week letup after start 3 in his career. Profiled to be a huge chance in Cox Plate but simply hasn’t come back the same horse. Drops 3kg off his 2.05 length defeat in the Turnbull Stakes but not sure that’s enough to warrant him a winning chance here. One for the true believers.

Hauraki – 2015 ATC Derby runner up to Mongolian Khan. Has returned in great order and looks to be trained to the minute for this race. Last start 2nd in the G3 Craven plate was huge running the fastest 800m-200m splits. Looked the winner but weakened in his last 200 11.81 defeated by stable mate Complacent who was a run deeper in his preparation. Drops 5kg on that performance and meets Mongolian Khan 2kg better off since meeting in the ATC Derby. James Mcdonald is a big positive.

Lucia Valentina – Can’t knock her preparation and record out to 2400m stronger than it reads. Looked below par behind Winx most recently in the G1 Epsom Handicap over 1600m 2 weeks ago. Sharp rise from 1600-2400 a concern as is barrier 20. Looks a big afterthought and maps awkwardly.

Rising Romance – Has raced with minimal luck all three runs this preparation despite being in career best form. She drops 2kg from the G1 Turnbull Stakes beaten only 3.45 lengths to preferment. She had the toughest run of the race and rise to 2400m suits given she was runner up last year carrying 56kg. Gets all favours from barrier 2 and will be in the finish.

Gust Of Wind – 2015 ATC Oaks winner after making a move from the 1200m mark to outstay the promising Winx. They went out 10 lengths above the benchmark for the first 600m that day so that win tells me she’ll lap 2400m up in this grade. She’s come back well this preparation although last start in the G1 Turnbull Stakes was a touch flat. Not doubting John Sargent though and she can bounce of that dropping 3.5kg here. Not convinced she’s a Caulfield horse but is a knockout. Profile says she can run a place.

Set Square – 2014 Crown Oaks winner. Slow start to her preparation failing to win Mares handicap 1st up then 5th in Open Hcp beaten 3.5 lengths to Iggimacool over 1700m at Flemington. Off a 3 week break finished 3rd beaten under a length to Preferment in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. That race the strongest profile for the race and she was held up for 100m and unlucky not to win. She drops 3.5kg from that performance but will be set a task from barrier 16. Kerrin McEvoy is a good addition but think she’s well under the odds at $9 in early markets.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Hauraki – I rate him equal favourite with Mongolian Khan at $5. $9 early is value.

LAY – E/W – Fame Game – Will SP $15 or higher. $10 in early markets no value.

LAY – E/W – Set Square – Rated closer to $17. $9 in early markets no value.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

 

The Betfair Insider.

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au