The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 10th October

Posted: October 9, 2015 at 9:46 am

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Caulfield, Saturday 10th October

 

Track – Good 3

Rail – True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 9th – Max 26. Partly cloudy. 0- 1mm 50% chance of showers.

Saturday 10th – Max 26. Partly cloudy. 0-2mm 50% chance of showers

 

R6 Caulfield Stakes 2000m

Speed Map

caulfield stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following: 

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won off a 3 week break
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been 4yos ( So You Think & Ocean Park)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have won from barrier 5 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have finished 1st or 2nd at their lead up run

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fawkner – SP $5.50 59kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 2nd Makybe Diva G1 1600m Flemington

 2nd – Criterion – SP $16 58kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

 3rd – Side Glance – SP $26 59kg BR 5 – 8 week let up, 3rd Arlington Millions G1 2000m ARL (USA)


2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.30 fav 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

 2nd – Foreteller – SP $10 59kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 12th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

 3rd – Super Cool – SP $5.50 58kg BR 2 – 4th up, 1 week 9th Turnbull G1 2000m Caulfield


2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Ocean Park – SP $1.50 fav 58kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

2nd – Alcopop – SP $20 59kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 7th JRA Cup G3 2040m Moonee Valley

3rd – Sincero – SP $5 59kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 5th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield


2011 – Descarado – SP $13 59kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Shannon Stakes G2 1500m Rosehill


2010 – So You Think – SP $1.40 fav 58kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

 

Major Players

 

Criterion – G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) winner in Sydney at autumn. Raced at the highest level in England in the G1 Prince Of Wales & G1 Juddmonte. Off an 8 week break here and suspect he will be given an easy time with the focus on the Cox Plate and a possible tilt at the Melbourne Cup. Has the class but likely to drop out last and hit the line strongly. Watch.

Fawkner – Profiles like the winner and can excuse a 2nd up flat spot in the G1 Underwood Stakes which no doubt cost him the race. Dominant record track and trip. Only an improving younger horse will beat him if they are good enough.

Contributer – Improved 2nd up in the Underwood Stakes. His 3rd up stats read strongly 3 starts 2 wins 1 second all at 2000m or beyond. His 3rd up G1 Ranvet Stakes win in the autumn was up along the inside fence running his last 600 32.88 400 22.04 200 11.48. He’s drawn barrier 1 here and gets a smaller field which is a plus. Will be close to his peak here.

Pornichet – Leader. Big improver last start on another suitable soft track in G1 George Main behind boom horse Kermadec. Should be at peak fitness now winning 2 of 3 starts at 2000m. However, this is a big leap from his heroics in the Doomben Cup. Not sure how he’s come up $6 early. LAY.

Kermadec – Lightly raced emerging 4yo star. Big win in the G1 George Main over 1600m sprinting off a moderate tempo on a Soft 7 to run his last 400 23.04 200 11.76. His last 200 that day almost eclipsing the winner of the G2 Shorts over 1100m (Rebel Dane home last 200 11.72). Impressive acceleration for a middle distance horse and that stat helps explain the hype. His breeding suggests 2000m won’t be an issue and as long as Glen Boss doesn’t panic from gate 8 he’ll be hard to beat.

Mongolian Khan – ATC Derby winner in autumn. Has come back in great fashion beaten under 2 lengths in both G1 Maybe Diva & G1 Underwood Stakes 1st and 2nd up. Maps well but I’m confident he’s a better 2400m horse. Will drop 3kg into the Caulfield Cup and I’d be surprised if he didn’t SP favourite for that race. If he won here connections would change path to the Cox Plate.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – WIN – Kermadec – Expecting him to drift and firm late. $3.00 early looks rock bottom.

BACK – WIN – Contributerlooks well over the odds in early markets at $9.

 

R7 David Jones NBCF Toorak Handicap 1600m

Speed Map:

toorak handicap

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners finished 1st 2nd or 3rd in their lead up run at G1 Level
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites (no winner above $9 SP in past 5 years)
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried >56kg
  • 4 of past 5 winners came of a 2 week break leading into the race
  • 1 of past 5 winners was a Mare (2010 More Joyous)

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Trust In A Gust – SP $4.60 fav 56.5kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulf

2nd – Speediness – SP $19 57.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 13th Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Desert Jueney – SP $61 53kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Hcp 80k 1500m Moonee Valley


2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Solzhenitsyn –  SP $6 fav 58kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Trevieres – SP $12 54.5kg BR 8 – 9 week let up, 1st 3yo & UP HCP 126.5k 1600m Dueaville (FR)

3rd – Blackie – SP $21 54.5kg BR 5 – 9 week let up, 1st 4yo & UP HCP 80k 1500m Moonee Valley


2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Solzhenitsyn – SP $5.00 52kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Spirit Song – SP $21 52kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd HCP 80k 1700m Caulfield

3rd – Yosei – SP $14 52.5kg BR 9 – 5th up, 1 week 8th Epsom Hcp G1 1600m Randwick


2011 – King Mufhasa – SP $9 58kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Windsor Park G1 1600m Hastings (NZ)


2010 – More Joyous – SP $2.30 fav 58kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 wks 1st George Main G1 1600m Randwick

 

Major Players

 

Lucky Hussler – Fits the profile as the winner and despite no win at 1600m, has a 2nd in the G1 Emirates Stakes 2014 on his resume. Drawn to get a soft run in transit and has been set for the race. With a strong tempo he will get his chance if an inside run open up. I’m confident he’ll drift from $5-5.50 in early markets.

Stratum Star – Profile standout in the G1 Rupert Clarke and got the job done off a wide draw. Up 2.5kg for here but drawn favourably in barrier 2.  Proved carrying weight no issue after running a gallant 3rd in the Memsie Stakes (2nd up) behind Boban at WFA. His autumn 3rd placing in the G1 Australian Guineas suggests 1600m suits.

Disposition – Solid performance 2nd up in Rupert Clarke beaten 0.1 lengths to Stratum Star, here he meets that galloper 1.5kg better off. He had a dream run in transit and looked the winner 300m from the line.  His last 200 the 9th fastest of the race in 11.88. That’s the 2nd slowest last 200m of his career, he just lacked fitness! His form in Perth between 1600-1800m reads well for this, maps perfectly and profiles like the winner.

Flamingo Star – Will be forced to go back from barrier 14, but looks ready to peak here. Drops 2kg for finishing alongside Messene last start in the G2 Shannon Stakes which reads well given Messene’s effort in the Epsom behind Winx. Rider knows Caulfield well and Chris Waller loves winning G1s. If there’s a blowout he could be it.

Hi World – finally drops back to WFA after 3 close up performances in much stronger company then he meets today. Has always looked like a Handicap Miler so he’ll appreciate dropping 3.5kg and coming back in trip. Wide draw against but not the worst.

Hopfgarten – has a great 1600m record 3 wins 2 seconds from 9 starts albeit in weaker company. Trainer has won the race twice and liked his effort last start despite being squeezed in the home straight running out of room to finish cleanly. Will be strong to the line but a place chance at best.

Noble Protector – has a dominant record at 1600m 3 wins 1 second 1 third from 6 starts. 2nd up last preparation romped in G2 Sunline Stakes in slick time. Flat performance 1st up in the G2 Lets Elope beaten 5.65 lengths to Amicus. Trainer reports she’s back on track and turnaround wouldn’t shock. I expect her to drift heavily from $9 in early markets.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – E/W – Stratum StarI expect him to be heavily backed from $7.50 in early markets.

 

R8 Schweppes Thousand Guineas 1600m

Speed Map:

thousand guineas

 

Profiling the race we learn the following

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winner have won from barrier 6 or closer
  • Flight Stakes, 1000 Guineas Prelude (Tranquil Star) or Ed Manifold favoured lead ups

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Amicus – SP $10 55.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Traveston Girl – SP $15 55.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Sabatini – SP $19 55.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield


2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Guelph – SP $1.45 fav 55.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 10 days 1st Flight Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – May’s Dream – SP $7.50 55.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 3YF Hcp 80k 1400m Caulfield

3rd –  Gregers – SP $10 55.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield


2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Commanding Jewel – SP $10 55.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Ed Manifold G2 1610m Flem

2nd – Dear Demi – SP $11 55.5kg BR 16 – 5th up, 2 weeks 3rd Flight Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Zydeco – SP $12 55.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 10 days 5th Ed Manifold G2 1610m Flemington


2011 – Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.70 fav 55.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3YF Hcp 70k 1400m Caulfield


2010 – Yosei – SP $11 55.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 6th Flight Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

 

Major Players

 

Pasadena Girl – Winner of G1 Champagne Stakes over 1600m as a 2yo. Run on well 1st up in Atlantic Jewel Stakes. Looked the one to follow from the 1000 Guineas Prelude after being slowly away to rattle home against the race bias, her last 400 22.38 200 11.44. Drawn barrier 7, Hugh Bowman on and out to the mile makes her a standout. Will jump a very clear favourite.

Miss GunpowderLast start winner of 1000 Guineas Prelude aided by a craft Craig Williams ride. Sped to lead off a wide draw, dropped anchor then booted clear in the final 400m. She’s drawn barrier 11 here and with more tempo likely and rise to 1600m she looks a mile under the odds at $6.

Sagaronne – Follows same preparation as Pasadena Girl and hasn’t had conditions to suit. Naturally gets back so will need the right splits drawn barrier 3 here. As a 2yo third up ran 2nd to Press Statement in the JJ Atkins which holds her in very good stead here. Was fastest between 800-400m in 1000 Guineas prelude so expect her to improve dramatically fitness wise. Best roughie.

Take Pride – Went to a new level 3rd up in the G3 Champagne Stakes winning by 3 lengths hitting a rating level close to Petits Filous. Doubt she can hold that rating jumping from 1200-1600m but injects speed into the contest and can’t knock connections for throwing her in the deep end. Place chance at best.

Badawiya – Profiles well for the race as last start winner of the G2 Edward Manifold over 1600m. She’d deep into her prep boasting a win two starts back of Tivaci (2nd in UCI Stakes 1800m). She met this group of fillies in the Atlantic Jewel and wasn’t disgraced at The Valley which isn’t a suitable track for her. Drawn barrier 10 will be forced to go back and doubt she has the turn of foot to beat the likes of Pasadena Girl & Sagaronne based on her sectionals.

Stay With Me – Profiled as the winner of the 1000 Guineas prelude but looked unsettled in running wide high head carriage. She took off 700m from home after being stirred up by Sagaronne. Her times late were ok home last 400 22.66 200 11.56.  I’m happy to put that down as a forgive run, but I can’t have her in front of Pasadena Girl who is now 3rd up.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – E/W – Pasadena Girl – I’ve rated her closer to $3. $4.40- $4.60 in early markets HUGE!

 

R9 Beck Caulfield Guineas 1600m

Speed Map

caulfield Guineas

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 0 of past 5 winners have won from barrier 9 or wider
  • 3 of past 5 winners last start winners ( Group 2 or Group 3 level)
  • 4 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Shooting To Win – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Stan Fox G2 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Rich Enuff – SP $1.80 fav 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks  2nd Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulf

3rd – Wandjina – SP $101 56.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 1 week 7th Yellow Vintage Listed 121k 1400m Flem 


2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Long John – SP $3.80 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Divine Calling –  SP $13 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 wks 1st Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley 

3rd  – Shamus Award –  SP $21 56.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 wks 2nd Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley


2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – All Too Hard – SP $12 56.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 4th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Pierro – SP $1.22 fav 56.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd – Epaulette SP $12 56.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield


2011 – Helmet – SP $2.20 fav 56.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield


2010 – Anacheeva – SP $6 56.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players

 

Press Statement – Obvious favourite after bolting in G2 Stan Fox. Although they didn’t go out at breakneck speed he still managed to come home sharply his last 400 22.60 200 11.56. It’s likely to be a stronger tempo in the early half and I can’t any reason he won’t be able to sprint well home again. The only negative is barrier 14 but looks well suited up to the mile.

Dal Cielo – Went out over 14 lengths above benchmark standard for first 600m in the 1400m G3 Guineas Prelude putting the race on for the backmarkers.  To be beaten only 0.3 lengths proves his class. He maps well from barrier 8 and looks to be a big danger to Press Statement. Connections say he won’t lead and that would be wise.

Sovereign Nation – had all the favours from barrier 3 in the G2 Stutt Stakes last start and on face value profiles well for this race. Big query on the quality of that field, so needs to keep improving to be a genuine chance here.

Bassett – Returned in good fashion over 1100m at Caulfield 3 weeks ago winning in ok time. 2nd up in his first preparation followed an identical pattern to run 5th beaten only 2.4 lengths in the G1 JJ Atkins over 1600m. He had little luck that start and despite an unusual preparation it’s easy to make a case for him if you’re looking to bet against the favourite. Has tactical speed and should track Dal Cielo into the race.

Last Bullet – After watching this colt’s last two replays you really struggle to believe that he finishes as close to the winners as he does. Every possibility he’s looking for more ground and a softer tempo early which he’ll get here. He recorded the 2nd fastest last 200 in the Guineas Prelude last start and is a knockout to fill a place. I’m very keen to see him over 2000m.

Tarzino – made a long sustained run from the 800m to win a 3yo HCP 21 days ago this track and distance (1600m). Will need luck from barrier 3 given his racing pattern and might now better suited to 2000m or beyond.

Tulsa – Went back off a horror draw last start and stormed home after Dal Cielo set a breakneck speed in the Guineas Prelude. Will get similar tempo here and has drawn barrier 16 for third time in a row. Profile says he can’t win from the barrier.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – WIN – Press Statement – I’d take anything >$3 which is likely to be offered closer to the race and almost certain to be offered ‘In Play’ on the Exchange.

BACK – WIN – Dal Cielo – he’s the map horse, at $10 will have plenty of support.

BACK – WIN – Bassett – He’s the only other danger to Press Statement & Dal Cielo. $13-14 early.