THE BETFAIR INSIDER
Bendigo, Wednesday 28 October 2015
Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au
Wednesday 28th – Max 27. Partly Cloudy with Light winds.
Profiling the race we learn the following:
- 5 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5 or less
- 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
- 4 of past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd at their latest start at G3 or Listed level
- 5 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper into preparation
- 0 of past 5 winners have been MARES
Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 Rail True, Good 3
1st – Bring Something – SP $8 54kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st BM84 80k 2400m Caulfield
2nd – Massiyn – SP $4.40 54kg BR 6 – 4th up, 5 days 4th Handicap 100k 2040m Moonee Valley
3rd – Order Of The Sun – SP $2.25 fav 54 kg BR – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st BM90 85k 2000m Randwick
2013 Rail True, Good 4
1st – Sertorius – SP $3.80 fav 55.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cran
2nd – Massiyn – SP $8.50 56.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield
3rd – Kesampour – SP $7.00 57.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 weeks 5th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield
2012 Rail True, Good 3
1st – Puissance De Lune – SP $3.40 fav 54.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd BM89 50k 2200m WNBL
2nd – Practiced – SP $3.70 54.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st 0-82 80k 2000m Caulfield
3rd – Fiumicino – SP $9.00 55kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 4th City Tatts Cup Listed 2400m Randwick
2011 –Tanby – SP $4.00 fav 54kg BR 4 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong
2010 – Dream Pedlar – SP $8.50 54.5kg BR 15 – 5th up, 2 weeks 4th Coongy G3 2000m Caulfield
The Offer – Profile is heavily against him with 59kg. I’m also expecting a very negative ride with the Melbourne Cup on his agenda. He doesn’t require a penalty here, 15th in the latest order of entry for the big race. At $7.50 in early markets it’s almost impossible to back him despite his last 4th in the City Tatts Club indicating he’s close to ready for a race like this.
Leebaz – Won the G2 Hollindale Stakes over 1800m 5th up last preparation. He comes to this race in great form, last start 3rd to Stratum Star in the G3 Coongy Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield. Is untried beyond 2000m and has drawn awkwardly in barrier 11. Expecting no favours from the wide alley and profile favours horses down in the weights.
Kirramosa – G1 Crown Oaks winner over 2500m in the spring of 2013. Yet to win since then but has raced at Group 1 or 2 level in all but 1 start since that victory. She was kept to 1600m 4th up this preparation in the G1 Epsom beaten 4.4 lengths when not really suited at the weights. She was set a huge task setting off from the 600m mark and couldn’t quicken when required. Despite the rise to 2400m I expect her to be fit enough and given the big drop in class she’s a big chance here out to a more suitable trip ridden cold. $4 early looks rock bottom.
Maygrove – Has been a run behind all preparation and this race definitely no stronger than the Geelong Cup he contested last week beaten 5.1 lengths Almoonqith. He jumped well, getting a good run in transit, approaching the turn he was shuffled back losing a few lengths. Matthew Cameron makes the trip from New Zealand to ride the horse. Last time he rode the horse, it won the G2 Wellington Cup over 2400m. On the minimum with a good draw and like him off the back up given he looked to race fresh last start. Profiles well for the race.
Araldo Junior – Lightly raced import who comes here 4th up following a dominant win in the Benalla Cup with the form holding up OK. The track favoured leaders that day, but made his own luck dashing away before the turn. He’s won between 2200-2800m in Germany albeit in much weaker company. Won’t get it as easy up front here but will improve out to 2400m. Big Watch.
Wexford Town – Another leader that’s most likely to cross and hold fence. Was five deep in a speed battle into the first turn last start in the G3 Bart Cummings 2500m. They went 20 lengths above the benchmark early so no surprise to see him beaten 5.9 lengths 8th knocking up 300m from the line. Given how quick they went early I thought he was entitled to be beaten further. Looks the right form with Our Ivanhowe and Maygrove coming from the same race and preforming well in tougher races.
Divan – Blueblood that has an electric turn of foot when right. Recorded good late sectionals 1st up in Adelaide over a mile home to suggest he was back on target. A month between runs stretched out to 2000m winning a BM70 at Pakenham sitting just off the speed in an attempt to teach him to relax. He made a long sustained run 600m out to win so expect him to be fit enough to win over 2400m here. Will box seat from barrier 1, has obvious talent but might be still a preparation away.
LAY – WIN – Leebaz – Think he’s a winning chance but expecting him to drift heavily from $4.80. Expecting him to SP closer to $8-9 on The Exchange given he’s an on speed horse, yet to win beyond 1800m.
BACK – WIN – Wexford Town – Will be rated better this time up front and comes to the race rock hard fit. Happy to take anything $10 or better.
*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.
Good Luck Backing & Laying!
The Betfair Insider