The Betfair Insider: Ascot, Saturday 21 November 2015

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Ascot, Saturday 21 November 2015

Track

Good 4

Rail +3m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 20st – Max 29, Mostly sunny.

Saturday 21st – Max 36, Mostly sunny.

 

R6 WA Guineas G2 1600m 

Speed Map:

WA Guineas

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  •    4 of past 5 winners used the Fairetha Stakes as their lead up run
    •    5 of past 5 winners were Colts or Geldings
    •    5 of past 5 winners had two weeks between runs
    •    2 of past 5 winners were SP Favourites

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Rommel – SP $21 56.6kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2nd – Disposition – SP $2.10 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

3rd – Say Geronimo – $21 56.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Ihtsahymn – SP $9 56.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2nd – Miss Rose De Lago – $3.50 fav 54.5kg BR 12 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Champ Fillies G3 1600m Ascot

3rd – Saint Bro – SP $7 56.5 BR 15 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Academus – SP $4 fav 56.5kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Hilton Stakes Listed 1400m Flemington

2nd –Bippo No Bungus – SP $41 54.5kg BR 15 – 4th up, 1 week 2nd Champ Phillies G3 1400m Ascot

3rd – Darlington Abbey – SP $17 – 54.5kg BR 16 – 5th up, 1 week 4th Champ Phillies G3 1400m Ascot

 

2011 – King Saul – SP $4.40 56kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2010 – Playing God – SP $4.60 fav 56kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

 

Major Players:

London Line – Recorded a tough win in the traditional lead-up last start when taking out the Fairetha Stakes, a race that produced the quinella (Rommel and Disposition) last year. He is a tough, no non-sense horse that will map well from barrier 7. Returning to level weights in this contest is a nice advantage considering he gave weight to his rival’s last start and was still too strong. Loves slightly over the odds in early markets given how well he profiles for the race.

Man Booker – Travelled three wide for a long part of the journey last start when going down narrowly to London Line in the Fairetha Stakes. His final 600m sectional was almost identical to London Line’s (34.40 secs v 34.39 secs) and he covered much more ground. Has two minor gear changes for this week with a nose band and tongue control bit being applied. Appears as though the extra 200m would clearly be beneficial. Strong winning chance if can find cover from the awkward draw.

He’s Our Rokkii – Loved the way he found the line last start behind Mahuta in the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington when the track was clearly favouring those on speed. He recorded the fastest Last 800m 47.27 and 600m 34.88. That form has been enhanced with Mahuta winning the Sandown Guineas. Traveling across the country is the big query for this horse and if he takes his A-game to Perth, he will be awfully hard to hold out.

Showy Chloe – Winner of the Group 2 Sire’s Produce Stakes last season, the talented filly carried 2.5kg more than Blackwood last start when gunned down as the leader in the Listed Burgess Queen Stakes 1400m. Skipped the Champion Stakes last week in favour of this contest and is ideally drawn in barrier five. Serious question marks over her ability to run out a strong mile against the boys considering she was unable to match the finishing burst of Blackwood last start. Blinkers go on for the first time.

Blackwood – Disappointed as favourite last start when tiring to finish third behind the Peters’ pair of Perfect Reflection and Arcadia Dream over 1600m in the Champion Stakes when $2.05 favourite. Appeared to have a nice run on speed from a good gate last time and hard to imagine she will be afforded the same passage from gate 13 this week. Happy to risk and believe she will struggle against the boys this week.

Arcadia Dream – Raced without luck in the Champion Stakes last Saturday and has claims to suggest she should have got closer to stablemate Perfect Reflection. Her last 600m in 35.31 was credible considering she was held up approaching the turn and then took a while to find clear galloping room. Expect her to go back and find cover from the wide barrier. While she looks the pick of the fillies in this contest, not sure that she should be early favourite, therefore she looks a lay at this stage.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – He’s Our RokkiiThere is always a risk that horses travelling from Melbourne may not handle the conditions in Perth especially given the weather forecast. If he holds his form he rates a $3 chance.

BACK – E/W – Man Booker
May have been outgunned by his female rivals at 1200m early in his preparation but can turn the tables here at each-way odds.

 

R7 Winterbottom G1 WFA 1200m

Speed Map:

Winterbottom Stakes Speedmap

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners trained in WA
  • 3 of past 5 winners were SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 3rd up in their preparation
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been Mares

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Magnifisio – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks Lee Steere G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Watermans Bay – SP $41 58.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 3 weeks MSS Security Listed 1200m Flemington 

3rd – Shining Light – SP $14 58.5kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Buffering – SP $2 fav 58.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st VRC Sprint Classic G1 1200m Flemington

2nd – Moment Of Change – SP $7 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd VRC Sprint Classic G1 1200m Flem

3rd – Watermans Bay – SP $41 58.5 BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Barakey – SP $2.70 fav 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

2nd –Power Princess – SP $7 56.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st Prince of Wales G3 1200m Ascot

3rd – Spirt Of Boom – SP $9 58.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 7th Patinack Classic G1 1200m Flemington

 

2011 – Ortensia – SP $2.20 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Mumm Stakes Listed 1100m Flemington

2010 – Hadabeclorka – SP $41 58.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

 

Major Players:

Buffering – The benchmark weight-for-age sprinter in this contest and proven under these conditions having won the corresponding race in 2013. He is following the same program two years ago and his last run when a close fourth, beaten less than a length, in the Darley Classic proves he is in good enough form to win again. He is certain to go quick from the wide barrier in the early stages and is likely to be pressured with several noted speedsters, including Liberty’s Gem, Madassa and Dawn Approach, in the race. It will be no surprise if he can win but well found in the market and no real value at $4.

Fast ’n’ Rocking – This is his golden opportunity to win a Group 1. Drawn perfect with an inside barrier given his style is to relax early and wind up strongly at the finish. Expecting a strong tempo with Buffering being ‘the hunted’ which suggests those with a powerful burst at the finish should be advantaged. He finished in front of Buffering when they met in the G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley and his last 400m 23.76 200m 12.05 were bettered only by Chautauqua. Fast firm tracks are his forte and he will get exactly that on Saturday.

Watermans Bay – Desperately unlucky not to win the Winterbottom Stakes last year and appears to be going as good judging by first-up 2nd when narrowly defeated by Rock Magic in the 1000m Colonel Reeves at Ascot. Better suited to the rise in distance and wide barrier not too much of a concern given he tends to be beaten for speed in the first half of the race. Would prefer William Pike on over Steven Arnold.

Rommel – Won the Guineas on this day last year and resumes first-up from a 38 week break. Had two runs in the autumn as a sprinter and produced credible performances, including Group 3 Zedative Stakes 1200m win at Caulfield. Following that win he sustained a fetlock injury and has been on the sidelines ever since. His trial at Belmont a fortnight ago was impressive. He sat 3w the entire trip and had enough early speed to lead if Steven Parnham wanted too. As an entire he’ll be tuned up to win this a looks a big overlay at $41 in early markets.

Magnifisio – Winner of the race last year and following the exact same path this time around, dropping back from the 1400m of the Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes a fortnight ago. Wide barrier dents her chances of going back-to-back as she is going to need plenty of luck from gate 17 against this level of opposition.

Lucky Street – The only three-year-old in the race and winner of the Group 2 Karrakatta 1200m last season. Will need to be used up in the first half of the race if wants to race forward from the barrier and therefore is likely to be vulnerable late. He needs to go to a whole new level here and think he’s half his right quote at $7.50-$8.00 in early markets.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Fast ’n’ Rocking Will be most suited by hot tempo. Only needs clear running to be in the finish.

BACK – WIN – Rommel – Have rated him $15 despite looking to win race 1st up against the profile.

LAY – WIN – Lucky Street – Doesn’t appear seasoned enough to take on this level of opposition just yet, have rated him $15.

 

 

R8 Railway Stakes G1 1600m

Speed Map:

Railway Stakes Speedmap

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 53.5kg or less
  • 1 of past 5 winners was SP favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won from as wide as barrier 12
  • 2 of past 5 winners have used Lee Steere Stakes as lead up run (2014 & 2015)
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Elite Belle – SP $6 53.5kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Lee Steere Stakes G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Balmont Girl – SP $9 53kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

3rd – Moriarty – SP $19 57kg BR 15 – 7th up, 3 weeks 8th Mackinnon Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Luckygray – SP $20 58kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Lee Steere Stakes G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Platinum Rocker – $21 53kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

3rd – Fire Up Fifi – SP $9 54kg BR 13 – 5th up, 3 weeks 3rd Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Mr Moet – SP $20 53.5kg BR 4 – 1st up,  14 weeks 1st Strickland G3 2000m Belmont

2nd – Luckygray – SP $3.80 fav 58kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Lee Steere Stakes G2 1400m Ascot

3rd – Rosie Rocket – SP $ 20 53kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Gold Cup Listed 1800m Ascot

 

2011 – Luckygray – SP $4 fav 53kg BR 12 – 4th up 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

2010 – Gathering – SP $12 52kg BR 6 – Freshened 4 weeks 6th Crystal Mile G2 1600m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Black Heart BartDominant win in the G2 Lee Steere Stakes over 1400m at his last start. Running 3 lengths above the benchmark to the 600m mark, he was able to accelerate strongly in his final 400m home in 22.36 200 11.52 to finish the race 10 lengths above benchmark. Last year’s railway won by Elite Belle (53.5kg) was 15 lengths above and in 2013 Luckygray (58kg) won being 10 lengths above. He’ll need some luck to get cover off his wide draw but that’s not his major problem in this race. The profile is against him dropping only 1kg from WFA to Quality conditions. He’s yet to win beyond 1400m despite being tried up to 2400m as a 3yo. The race will be run to allow him to run 1600m but I’m happy to be against him at the price.

MesseneClearly not on his game last start off a 28 day break beaten 6 lengths in the G3 Guvera Stakes 1400m at Flemington. He wasn’t fully fit that day and his sectionals throughout the race support that statement. The fast finishing 4th in the Epsom is the true guide to how this runner is really progressing. He carried 57kg that day and didn’t have clear running throughout. He still managed to finish off his last 400 in 22.40 200 11.40. He’ll box seat from barrier 11 and has been $16 into $14 in early markets.

DelicacyHad a great run in transit in the G2 Lee Steere Stakes beaten under a length to Black Heart Bart. She meets him 2kg better off than run, strips fitter and is more suited to the mile. She can sprint off a slow or fast tempo and her first up data suggests she’s in very good form. She maps awkwardly from gate 15 and is likely to drift from $4.20 in early markets. Connections have indicated 1800m Kingston Town could be more suitable for here. Is this her grand final?

Real LoveLast year’s Perth Cup winner who failed to land a blow in the Melbourne Autumn off a 6 week freshen. No injury but obviously trainer had reached the bottom of the barrel by that stage. Won her trial at Lark hill and dominated the G3 Asian Beau Stakes 1400m to win 1st up. She’s unbeaten 2nd up, jockey William Pike faced an agonising choice and has elected to ride Delicacy over this mare. Like the weight drop from 58kg to 54kg here and looking back to her Listed Carbine Club 1400m performance this time last year she did run 2nd to Black Heart Bart at level weights.

Good ProjectHas shown glimpses of ability throughout his career but often comes undone as a consequence of his racing pattern. Last start 2nd to Malaguerra was impressive as he carried 60kg giving the winner 4.5kg, running his last 400m sectional in 22.72 200 11.62. The track was favouring horses closest to the rail on that occasion but he does appear to be in career best form. He looks well found at $8 in early markets and I expect him to trade $12+ on The Exchange.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – Black Heart BartLooks a standout lay at $5 in early markets. Lay up to $8.

BACK – WIN – Messene – I’ve rated him a $9 chance and keen to back him down to single figures.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au