Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Saturday November 14, 7.30pm
Sydney FC did us a favour last week playing out a drab nil all draw with the Roar and whilst this fixture can often produce goals, I can’t see them flowing this time.
Sydney have a rock solid structure and have conceded league lows of 2 goals against and 7 shots on goal in the opening 5 matches. In fact in 2 of those 5 matches they have concede zero shots on goal. One of these was last week against a Brisbane side who have averaged 5.5 shots on goal in their 4 other fixtures this season, proving they can make even the better attacking teams struggle for fluency.
The Melbourne Victory defence has been quite solid also with a 3rd best average of only 3 shots faced per match, conceding 3 goals in the process, 2 of which were scored in a matter of minutes by cross town rivals City.
Attack wise both teams are creating a reasonable number of chances, Sydney 4.8 shots on goal per match and Victory 4 both are certainly still works in progress. They will both likely be missing key attacking weapons in Shane Smeltz for Sydney and Kosta Barbourouses for the Victory.
The probability of slippery conditions is another added positive factor.
Considerations for other markets
Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
Sunday 15 November, 5pm
These two teams have reasonably similar shots stats in both attack and defence.
Brisbane having faced 4.2 shots per match and Perth 5 shots per match whilst producing 4.4 and 4 shots on target respectively (although we know Brisbane were at 5.5 shots per game prior to playing Sydney last week).
John Aloisi’s men will likely have around 60-65% possession and have averaged 358 passes per match to Perth’s 205.
Perth Glory though are a stubborn team to break down and one that like Sydney set up to frustrate with a deep defensive block.
Where I think this match turns is in the personal unavailable. Brisbane miss Matt Mckay and Jamie Maclaren on international duty. These two have been in their top 3-4 most influential players all season and their loss creates a large creative hole.
Perth on the other hand have Gyorgy Sandor back to partner Diego Castro and Nebojsa Marinkovic in a very strong looking midfield. They miss Josh Risdon and so defensively they might be a bit fragile on the wings which is a dangerous fact with Thomas Broich and Brendan Borello bearing down on you, however they are very strong centrally and should be able to cope.
Brisbane are deserved favourites but at around 1.7 are far too short. I could easily Lay them up to 2.0 risking 1.5 units.