The A-League Analyst: Week 27 Preview

Posted: April 8, 2016

Jamie Maclaren Brisbane Roar

 

The final round of the season offers some excellent betting opportunities based on the history of the league rather than the individual games.

Final round statistics

  • Over 2.5 goals in 33 of 46 matches which translates to a dividend of 1.39. Excluding these matches there has been 1260 matches of which 654 have been over 2.5 goals (1.93)
  • Goal average of 3.24 per match in the final round against an average of 2.74 per match excluding the last round.
  • In 46 matches the home team has a record of 27W-13L-6D. This equates to dividends of Home 1.7 (59%) Draw 7.7 (13%) Away 3.54 (28%). Excluding these matches there has been 1260 matches with respective probabilities of Home 45% (2.22) Draw 26% (3.94) Away 29% (3.39).
  • In 46 matches there has never been a 0-0 draw excluding these matches there has been 85 0-0 draws in 1260 matches (6.7% or 14.8)
  • In 46 matches there has been two matches with 1 goal (4.3%). In 1230 matches excluding these there has been 315 matches with less than 1.5 goals (25%)

 

Interestingly this season we see four of the five away teams as pronounced favourites owing to the fact that the race for the Premiers Plate is still alive and with a large points differential between sixth place and the remaining four teams it is understandable. History though suggests that it will not be as straight forward as it appears.

 

Final Round Betting Strategy

 

Laying on Betfair LAY – Each draw for a risk of 1 unit.

The unique circumstances of this seasons tight league suggests that blindly backing the home teams may not be as profitable as history suggests. You will notice that the away team probability remains reasonably constant at around the 3.4 mark but the big variance is in the draw probability.

 

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals in each match for 1.5 units

Goals flow in the final round. Once again it is unusual for only one match to be a “dead rubber” and with something at stake, again rather unique for this season, however I doubt this will have a negative effect on the expected goals per match.