The A-League Analyst: Week 19 Preview

Posted: February 12, 2016 at 10:34 am

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Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Friday February 12, 8pm 

Match Odds

 

Brisbane have certainly bounced back since the return of their Olyroos players winning 3-1 at Sydney and 4-0 at home to Central Coast. In both games they have recorded above average Total Shots (16.5 v 13) and Shots on Goal (7.5 v 4.8) compared to their full season.

Newcastle are off the back of arguably their best two performances of the year, at least in an attacking sense. They had more total shots (13-11) than Adelaide despite losing 0-1 due to the fact they struggled to convert the chances and outshot the attacking specialists in Melbourne City (17-16) including six on target in a 2-1 win. For a team that has average just 8.75 shots and 2.3 on target this season that suggests they are going well.

Brisbane are 7W-1D-1L at home this season and 7-2 over/under. However they are yet to play Wanderers, Victory or Sydney and their one loss was vs a resurgent Adelaide a fortnight ago. Despite being dominant at home they have managed just the six first half goal in eight matches conceding two.

Newcastle won their first two away matches at Wellington and City but have failed to win in their next five, picking up just the 1 point in a 0-0 draw with Adelaide. They have failed to score in their last five matches away from home however they have all been under 2.5 against top-six teams. There has been just seven goals recorded in the first halves of their seven away matches.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.5+ for 1.5 units

Lay the under at half time to green up your book given the Roar home matches have seen 20 second half goals.

 

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Saturday February 13, 5:15pm

Match Odds

 

Sydney fought back twice to gain a point in Adelaide after being completely outplayed in the first half but utterly dominant in the second half.

Perth went to Wellington and picked up a 1-0 win, their second of the season and second on the trot after thrashing the Jets 6-1.

Sydney have a home record of 4-3-2 this season but won just four of 13 last season. They have struggled to put teams away scoring more than two goals just twice this season and five times last season. They’ve also remained goalless in two of their eight home matches this season and six of 13 last season. Worryingly for Sydney they managed six clean sheets in rounds 1-10 and just the one since. Although their Shots on Goal have improved over time from 3.8 rounds 1-10 to 4.9 rounds 11-18. The return of Alex Brosque will also be an added bonus.

Perth have lost just two of their last 10 matches and similarly to Sydney have increased their attacking output having 6.2 shots on goal rounds 11-18 compared with four shots on goal rounds 1-10.

Perth’s ranking across most of my key indices has, as expected, improved in the second part of the season whilst Sydney’s have regressed from admittedly the top of the league, particularly in defence.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.1+ for 1.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Perth Draw No Bet for 1.5 units

I find the disparity in prices here quite interesting and think Perth represent significant value. Back them at 3.8+ in the draw no bet market for 1.5 units. If betting via the match odds spend 1.5 units backing the draw to get square and Perth with the remainder.

Bonus Bets

I’m not sure either of these are worthy of full write ups but a wise man, my father, once told me to always expect the unexpected. To that end I think the last two matches of the weekend offer some value at massive odds.

Luis Garcia will start for the Central Coast Mariners against Adelaide and they will throw everything at them from the outset. I can’t see him getting past 60 minutes in likely 30⁰+ day. Adelaide are a strong second half team scoring 17 of their 26 goals in the second half.

Speculate on Central Coast/Adelaide half full double at 28 for 0.25 units

Western Sydney Wanderers have all 3 Spanish imports out for the first time this season. This means they need to find two Defensive Midfielders and a Centre Back. If they were playing anyone but the Phoenix I would be charging in. Even given the Phoenix’s poor form I’m still going to speculate on them getting the win at 9.2 for 0.25 units.