The A-League Analyst: Week 16 Preview

Posted: January 22, 2016

a-league analyst

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Sunday January 24, 5:00pm

Match Odds


Newcastle Jets got the monkey of their back in a big way putting three goals past Wellington after not scoring for the previous six matches however as I will note in the Wellington preview that isn’t particularly difficult recently. Still it must be said that they managed to play a far better brand of football thanks largely to the more forward position taken up by David Carney.

Perth Glory drew 2-2 at home to Melbourne City and were probably unfortunate not to get something more from the game given they had nine shots on target to City’s three.

Prior to last week, all of Newcastle’s eight home matches had just the one goal scored before halftime by either team. They also managed six shots on target after only managing 24 on target in the previous 14 matches. The win was only their second at home this season but considering that was only their second of nine matches against teams outside the six their home form is probably not so bad particularly considering the only blowout came against a rampant City when they lost 4-0.

Perth have scored seven goals in the last five matches after scoring just four in their previous seven. If you break those seven goals down they have scored two penalties, two direct from free kicks, one own goal and two from open play. There has only been 19 penalties and seven free kicks converted across the league this season so perhaps they still have some work to do in attack. They also tend to concede too many shots on goal, particularly away (6.5 per match). But similarly to the Jets they have played six of their seven away matches at top-six teams.


Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.75+ for 1.5 units


Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix

Monday January 25, 7:30pm

Match Odds


Melbourne City were at it again last week taking part in a high scoring match of four goals. They would have been disappointed not to come away with the three points from Perth, particularly since they played only 10 men for the last half hour. They managed only three shots on target, so once again had their amazing conversion rate to thank for the two goals.

Wellington were poor losing 3-1 to Newcastle in a match they too failed to take advantage of an extra man for over 30 minutes. That match made it 3 on end conceding 3 goals with 1-3 and 0-3 losses to Central Coast and Adelaide respectively.

Home and away in City’s 15 matches this season there have been goals galore. 13/15 over 2.5, 11/15 over 3.5 and 6/15 over 4.5. At home they are 7/7 over 2.5 and 5/7 over 3.5 goals.

They have led at half time in 5 of their home matches including the last three against Western Sydney Wanderers, Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory so it is clear to see they are fast starters and they have scored first in six of their seven home matches. They can tend to make heavy weather of defending leads though failing to win two of the six in which they have led and having to find a winner after falling back level on another two occasions.

Wellington have conceded first in 10/15 matches and been behind at half time in 4/9 away matches including the last three. It has to be noted though that they do regain Manny Muscat to help strengthen their defence this week.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – City to lead at half time at 1.90+ for 1.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.1+ for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 4.5 goals at 3.2+ for 0.5 units


*Check back on Monday for a preview a preview of the Big Blue on Australia day.

The A-League Analyst


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